--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/zh/earnings/hca last_updated: 2026-05-04T10:04:23.380Z --- # HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) Q4 FY2026 财报预览 > 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-04T10:04:22.528Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。 --- ## 快速摘要 | 字段 | 值 | 来源 | |---|---|---| | 价格 | $433.09 (▼ -0.31%) | fmp:quote | | 市值 | $96.1B | fmp:profile | | 52周区间 | $330.00 – $556.52 | fmp:quote | | 财报 | 周五 24 7月 | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS 预期 | $7.38 (+8% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 营收预期 | $19.4B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 超预期连胜 | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | 评级 | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | 分析师中位数目标价 | $530 (+22.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 33/100 | derived | | Council | 1/6 bullish | derived | | 芒格结论 | 合理估值 | derived | ## HCA Healthcare, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 预期 Q4 季度共识：营收 $19.4B^{[FMP est]}，EPS $7.38^{[FMP est]}。连续 8 个季度超出预期^{[FMP earnings]}。 ## 快速概览 **得分：** B- · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 1/6 · **Moonshot：** 33 = MoonshotScore 33^{[MoonshotScore]} + Council 1/6^[Council]。Form 4: 0 笔交易^{[FMP Form 4]}。 ## 观察列表 (4个指标) ### 1. Exchange Impact Estimate 该公司估计，交易所对2026年第一季度调整后EBITDA的影响约为1.5亿美元，而去年同期为1.5亿美元。 > "我们估计，交易所对2026年第一季度调整后EBITDA的影响约为1.5亿美元，而去年同期为1.5亿美元。" > — Mike Marks, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Full Year Exchange Impact 该公司仍然认为，其全年调整后EBITDA的预期影响范围为6亿至9亿美元是合适的。 > "鉴于我们迄今为止的经验，我们仍然认为，全年调整后EBITDA的预期影响范围为6亿至9亿美元是合适的。" > — Mike Marks, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Share Repurchases 此外，我们购买了15.7亿美元的流通股，并在本季度支付了1.83亿美元的股息。 > "此外，我们购买了15.7亿美元的流通股，并在本季度支付了1.83亿美元的股息。" > — Mike Marks, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Capital Expenditures 本季度资本支出总额为11亿美元。 > "本季度资本支出总额为11亿美元。" > — Mike Marks, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore 支柱 | 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 | |---|---|---|---| | 营收增长 | 1.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: 增长放缓 (+%2.7，低于阈值) | | 毛利率 | 1.0 | weak | Q1: 低毛利率 (%15.0，资本密集型或大宗商品) | | 经营杠杆 | 1.0 | weak | 营业利润率平均 (%15.0) | | 现金流储备 | 7.0 | strong | FCF 为正但被吞噬 ($0.9B 对比 $1.1B CapEx) | | 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) | | 价格动能 | 4.0 | medium | RSI 30.9 动能疲弱，50日均线之下 | | 新闻情绪 | 6.0 | medium | 多数为买入 (60%) | **公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7视角) | 名称 | 立场 | 背景 | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +22.4% | | Ken Griffin | bear | 资金流 · 50日均线之下 | | Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 31 | | Klarman | neutral | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +22.4% | | Buffett | neutral | 质量 · ROE 评分 1/5 | | Munger | neutral | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +22.4% | **公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## 芒格视角 - **结论:** 合理估值 - **财务健康:** Weak - **安全边际:** Moderate - **利息覆盖率:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## 技术水平 - **RSI(14):** 30.9 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50日均线:** $497 — hisse %12.8 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200日均线:** $457 — hisse %5.3 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **成交量 (10日):** -34% ## 历史表现 (4个季度) | 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $6.84 | $6.29 | BEAT | +1.9% | | Q3 FY25 | $6.96 | $5.79 | BEAT | +4.7% | | Q4 FY25 | $8.01 | $7.46 | BEAT | -2.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $7.15 | $7.12 | +0.4% EPS | +3.1% | Q1 (2026年4月24日): EPS $7.15 vs 预期 $7.12^[FMP]，超出 +%0.4。D+1 走势：+3.1%^{[FMP D+1]}。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。 ## 3种情景 ### 情景 A · 超预期 **Q4 EPS > $7.38 + 资本支出纪律** 阈值：EPS > $7.38^{[FMP est]}。目标：突破中位数目标价 $530^{[FMP target]}；高目标价 $635^[FMP] 为上限。 ### 情景 B · 符合预期 **EPS ≈ $7.38 + CapEx < $1.1B** 阈值：EPS ≈ $7.38^{[FMP est]}，Q4 资本支出 < $1.1B^[FMP]。目标：在当前价 $433^[FMP] 与中位数目标价 $530^[FMP] 区间内盘整。 ### 情景 C · 未达预期 **EPS < $7.16 或 CapEx ≥ $1.1B** 阈值：EPS < $7.16^{[FMP est×0.97]}。目标：当前价 $433 低于 200日均线 $457^[FMP]，若持续拒绝，则激活 $389^[derived] 支撑位。 ## 风险提示 ### {{segment}} 低于阈值 Q1 季度：EPS $7.15 vs 预期 $7.12^[FMP]，超出预期，股价 D+1 +3.1%^[FMP]。 ### 对 OpenAI 的依赖 Q1 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。 ### 内幕交易 Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。 | 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 | |---|---|---|---| **净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q1 FY26 ### 资本支出冲击 Q1 季度资本支出 $1.1B^{[FMP cashflow]}。 Q1 营业利润率 %15.0^{[FMP op margin]} — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。 ## 华尔街共识 - **中位数目标价:** $530 (+22.4% upside vs current $433) - **高 / 低:** $635 / $436 - **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 15 / 9 / 1 - **分析师数量:** 10 (上一季度), 103 历史总数 ## 额外财报电话会议洞察 ### 1. volume_rebound **主张:** The company noted that the impacts of respiratory-related issues and the winter storm were mostly contained to January, with February and March volumes rebounding nicely. **证据 (会议记录):** "The reparatory related and winter storm impacts were mostly contained to January, with February and March volumes rebounding nicely." **数据:** — ### 2. supplemental_payment_impact **主张:** The company experienced a greater net benefit than anticipated from state supplemental programs, which mostly offset impacts from the shortfall in volumes. **证据 (会议记录):** "On the positive side, however, we experienced a greater net benefit than anticipated from state supplemental programs. As a reminder, these programs are complex, they're variable and difficult to predict. This benefit mostly offset impacts from the shortfall in volumes." **数据:** — ### 3. exchange_impact_estimate **主张:** The company estimates the adjusted EBITDA impact from the exchanges to be approximately $150 million in the first quarter of 2026 versus the prior year quarter. **证据 (会议记录):** "We estimate the adjusted EBITDA impact from the exchanges to be approximately $150 million in the first quarter of 2026 versus the prior year quarter." **数据:** $150 million, 2026 ### 4. full_year_exchange_impact **主张:** The company still believes its full year range of $600 million to $900 million expected impact on adjusted EBITDA is appropriate. **证据 (会议记录):** "Given our experience to date, we still believe our full year range of $600 million to $900 million expected impact on adjusted EBITDA is appropriate." **数据:** $600 million, $900 million ### 5. capital_expenditures **主张:** Capital expenditures totaled $1.1 billion in the quarter. **证据 (会议记录):** "Capital expenditures totaled $1.1 billion in the quarter." **数据:** $1.1 billion ### 6. share_repurchases **主张:** Additionally, we purchased $1.57 billion of our outstanding shares, and we paid $183 million in dividends for the quarter. **证据 (会议记录):** "Additionally, we purchased $1.57 billion of our outstanding shares, and we paid $183 million in dividends for the quarter." **数据:** $1.57 billion, $183 million --- *数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-04)，Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*