--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/zh/earnings/hd last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:48:10.364Z --- # The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Q4 FY2026 财报预览 > **[stale-preview-note]** 注：本预览发布于2026-05-19财报之前。请以最新公告为准。 > 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q4 FY2025 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T20:48:09.324Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。 --- ## 快速摘要 | 字段 | 值 | 来源 | |---|---|---| | 价格 | $323.88 (▼ -1.50%) | fmp:quote | | 市值 | $322.6B | fmp:profile | | 52周区间 | $315.31 – $426.75 | fmp:quote | | 财报 | 周二 19 5月 | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS 预期 | $3.42 (-4% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 营收预期 | $41.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 超预期连胜 | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | 评级 | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | 分析师中位数目标价 | $418 (+28.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 39/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | 芒格结论 | 低估 | derived | ## The Home Depot, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 预期 Q4 季度共识：营收 $41.6B^{[FMP est]}，EPS $3.42^{[FMP est]}。连续 1 个季度超出预期^{[FMP earnings]}。 ## 快速概览 **得分：** B · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 4/6 · **Moonshot：** 39 = MoonshotScore 39^{[MoonshotScore]} + Council 4/6^[Council]。Form 4: 0 笔交易^{[FMP Form 4]}。 ## 观察列表 (4个指标) ### 1. Fy26 Sales Growth 公司预计2026财年总销售额将增长约2.5%至4.5%。 > "展望2026财年，我们预计总销售额将增长约2.5%至4.5%，可比销售额将增长约持平至2%，调整后的摊薄后每股收益将增长约持平至4%。" > — Edward Decker, Chair, President and CEO, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Online Sales Growth 与去年第四季度相比，利用我们数字平台的销售额增长了约11%。 > "再来看公司在线可比销售总额。与去年第四季度相比，利用我们数字平台的销售额增长了约11%。" > — William Bastek, Executive Vice President of Merchandising, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Capital Expenditures Guidance 该公司计划继续投资于其业务，2026财年的资本支出约为销售额的2.5%。 > "该公司计划继续投资于其业务，2026财年的资本支出约为销售额的2.5%。" > — Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Big Ticket Performance 与去年第四季度相比，大额交易（超过1,000美元）的可比交易额增长了1.3%。 > "与去年第四季度相比，大额交易（超过1,000美元）的可比交易额增长了1.3%。" > — William Bastek, Executive Vice President of Merchandising, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore 支柱 | 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 | |---|---|---|---| | 营收增长 | 0.0 | weak | Q4 vs Q1: 负增长 (-%4.2，收缩) | | 毛利率 | 3.0 | weak | Q4: 平均毛利率 (%32.6) | | 经营杠杆 | 1.0 | weak | 营业利润率平均 (%10.1) | | 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 非常强劲 ($2.3B，是资本支出的 2.2 倍以上) | | 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) | | 价格动能 | 4.0 | medium | RSI 40.0 动能疲弱，50日均线之下 | | 新闻情绪 | 6.0 | medium | 多数为买入 (59%) | **公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7视角) | 名称 | 立场 | 背景 | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +28.9% | | Ken Griffin | bear | 资金流 · 50日均线之下 | | Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 40 | | Klarman | bull | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +28.9% | | Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 | | Munger | bull | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +28.9% | **公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## 芒格视角 - **结论:** 低估 - **财务健康:** Moderate - **安全边际:** Strong - **利息覆盖率:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## 技术水平 - **RSI(14):** 40.0 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50日均线:** $343 — hisse %5.7 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200日均线:** $371 — hisse %12.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **成交量 (10日):** +10% ## 历史表现 (4个季度) | 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $3.56 | $3.60 | MISS | -1.6% | | Q2 FY25 | $4.68 | $4.72 | MISS | -1.3% | | Q3 FY25 | $3.74 | $3.83 | MISS | -0.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $2.72 | $2.53 | +7.5% EPS | -2.3% | Q4 (2026年2月24日): EPS $2.72 vs 预期 $2.53^[FMP]，超出 +%7.5。D+1 走势：-2.3%^{[FMP D+1]}。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。 ## 3种情景 ### 情景 A · 超预期 **Q4 EPS > $3.42 + 资本支出纪律** 阈值：EPS > $3.42^{[FMP est]}。目标：突破中位数目标价 $418^{[FMP target]}；高目标价 $454^[FMP] 为上限。 ### 情景 B · 符合预期 **EPS ≈ $3.42 + CapEx < $1.1B** 阈值：EPS ≈ $3.42^{[FMP est]}，Q4 资本支出 < $1.1B^[FMP]。目标：在当前价 $324^[FMP] 与中位数目标价 $418^[FMP] 区间内盘整。 ### 情景 C · 未达预期 **EPS < $3.32 或 CapEx ≥ $1.1B** 阈值：EPS < $3.32^{[FMP est×0.97]}。目标：当前价 $324 低于 200日均线 $371^[FMP]，若持续拒绝，则激活 $315^[derived] 支撑位。 ## 风险提示 ### {{segment}} 低于阈值 Q4 季度：EPS $2.72 vs 预期 $2.53^[FMP]，超出预期，股价 D+1 -2.3%^[FMP]。 ### 对 OpenAI 的依赖 Q4 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。 ### 内幕交易 Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。 | 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 | |---|---|---|---| **净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q4 FY25 ### 资本支出冲击 Q4 季度资本支出 $1.1B^{[FMP cashflow]}。 Q4 营业利润率 %10.1^{[FMP op margin]} — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。 ## 华尔街共识 - **中位数目标价:** $418 (+28.9% upside vs current $324) - **高 / 低:** $454 / $320 - **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 22 / 15 / 0 - **分析师数量:** 6 (上一季度), 122 历史总数 ## 额外财报电话会议洞察 ### 1. fy26_sales_growth **主张:** The company expects total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5% for fiscal year 2026. **证据 (会议记录):** "Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, we expect total sales growth of approximately 2.5% to 4.5%, comparable sales growth of approximately flat to 2% and adjusted diluted earnings per share to grow approximately flat to 4%." **数据:** 2.5%, 4.5%, 2%, 4% ### 2. pro_ecosystem_growth **主张:** Pros utilizing the Pro ecosystem of capabilities are spending more, and the company remains focused on enhancing its capabilities to better support Pros. **证据 (会议记录):** "Pros who are utilizing our Pro ecosystem of capabilities are spending more with us, and we remain focused on enhancing our capabilities from sales support to project management to delivery, all to better support Pros throughout the life of their projects." **数据:** — ### 3. srs_organic_growth **主张:** SRS's organic sales are expected to grow mid-single digits in fiscal 2026. **证据 (会议记录):** "Going forward, we will continue to support SRS' momentum, and we expect their organic sales to grow mid-single digits in fiscal 2026." **数据:** — ### 4. online_sales_growth **主张:** Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased approximately 11% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. **证据 (会议记录):** "Turning to total company online comp sales. Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased approximately 11% compared to the fourth quarter of last year." **数据:** 11% ### 5. big_ticket_performance **主张:** Big ticket comp transactions or those over $1,000 were positive 1.3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. **证据 (会议记录):** "Big ticket comp transactions or those over $1,000 were positive 1.3% compared to the fourth quarter of last year." **数据:** 1,000, 1.3% ### 6. capital_expenditures_guidance **主张:** The company plans to continue investing in its business with capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of sales for fiscal 2026. **证据 (会议记录):** "We plan to continue investing in our business with capital expenditures of approximately 2.5% of sales for fiscal 2026." **数据:** 2.5% --- *数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q4 FY2025 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*