--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/zh/earnings/hwm last_updated: 2026-05-04T10:07:41.891Z --- # Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) Q4 FY2026 财报预览 > **[stale-preview-note]** 注：本预览发布于2026-05-07财报之前。请以最新公告为准。 > 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q4 FY2025 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-04T10:07:41.123Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。 --- ## 快速摘要 | 字段 | 值 | 来源 | |---|---|---| | 价格 | $239.51 (▼ -1.45%) | fmp:quote | | 市值 | $96.0B | fmp:profile | | 52周区间 | $150.63 – $267.31 | fmp:quote | | 财报 | 周四 7 5月 | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS 预期 | $1.11 (+29% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 营收预期 | $2.2B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 超预期连胜 | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | 评级 | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | 分析师中位数目标价 | $280 (+16.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 54/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | 芒格结论 | 合理估值 | derived | ## Howmet Aerospace Inc. — Q4 FY2026 预期 Q4 季度共识：营收 $2.2B^{[FMP est]}，EPS $1.11^{[FMP est]}。连续 8 个季度超出预期^{[FMP earnings]}。 ## 快速概览 **得分：** B · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 2/6 · **Moonshot：** 54 = MoonshotScore 54^{[MoonshotScore]} + Council 2/6^[Council]。Form 4: 0 笔交易^{[FMP Form 4]}。 ## 观察列表 (6个指标) ### 1. Engine Products Growth 发动机产品团队再次实现了收入、EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利润率的创纪录季度。季度收入增长 20%，达到 11.6 亿美元。 > "发动机产品团队再次实现了收入、EBITDA 和 EBITDA 利润率的创纪录季度。季度收入增长 20%，达到 11.6 亿美元，商业航空航天增长 17%，国防航空航天增长 18%。" > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 2. Defense Aerospace Growth 由于发动机备件（增长 32%）以及新型 F-35 飞机的制造，国防航空航天业务在第四季度继续保持强劲增长势头，增幅达 20%。 > "国防航空航天业务在第四季度继续保持强劲增长势头，增幅达 20%。全年来看，国防航空航天业务增长 21%，这主要得益于发动机备件（增长 32%）以及新型 F-35 飞机的制造。" > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 3. Spares Revenue Growth 备件收入在 2025 年全年加速增长，目前占总收入的 21%，而 2024 年为 17%，之前为 11%，2019 年为 11%。 > "备件收入在 2025 年全年加速增长，目前占总收入的 21%，而 2024 年为 17%，之前为 11%，2019 年为 11%。" > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 4. Gas Turbine Growth 由于发电需求（尤其是数据中心天然气发电）的增长，燃气轮机业务增长非常强劲，第四季度收入增长了 32%。 > "燃气轮机业务增长非常强劲，第四季度收入增长了 32%，全年增长了 25%。燃气轮机业务的增长得益于发电需求（尤其是数据中心天然气发电）的增长。" > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 5. Commercial Aerospace Growth 由于发动机备件的需求加速以及新型、更省油的飞机的创纪录积压订单，2025 年全年商业航空航天业务保持强劲增长。 > "2025 年全年，商业航空航天业务保持强劲增长，第四季度收入增长 13%，全年增长 12%。" > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q4 FY2025 ### 6. EBITDA Margin Increase 2025 年，Howmet 的 EBITDA 利润率增长 350 个基点，达到 29.3%，第四季度的退出率为 30.1%。 > "EBITDA 利润率增长 350 个基点，达到 29.3%，第四季度的退出率为 30.1%。" > — Patrick Winterlich, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Risk Indicator · Q4 FY2025 ## MoonshotScore 支柱 | 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 | |---|---|---|---| | 营收增长 | 6.0 | medium | Q4 vs Q1: 健康增长 (+%11.6) | | 毛利率 | 3.0 | weak | Q4: 平均毛利率 (%31.5) | | 经营杠杆 | 3.0 | weak | 营业利润率健康 (%26.6) | | 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 非常强劲 ($0.5B，是资本支出的 4.3 倍以上) | | 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.4，创新薄弱) | | 价格动能 | 4.0 | medium | RSI 46.3 平衡，50日均线之下 | | 新闻情绪 | 9.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (87%) | **公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7视角) | 名称 | 立场 | 背景 | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +16.9% | | Ken Griffin | bear | 资金流 · 50日均线之下 | | Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 46 | | Klarman | neutral | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +16.9% | | Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +16.9% | **公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## 芒格视角 - **结论:** 合理估值 - **财务健康:** Moderate - **安全边际:** Moderate - **利息覆盖率:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## 技术水平 - **RSI(14):** 46.3 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50日均线:** $246 — hisse %2.7 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200日均线:** $210 — hisse %13.9 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **成交量 (10日):** -13% ## 历史表现 (4个季度) | 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY25 | $0.86 | $0.78 | BEAT | +4.1% | | Q2 FY25 | $0.91 | $0.87 | BEAT | +2.5% | | Q3 FY25 | $0.95 | $0.91 | BEAT | +2.1% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.05 | $0.96 | +8.8% EPS | +2.2% | Q4 (2026年2月12日): EPS $1.05 vs 预期 $0.96^[FMP]，超出 +%8.8。D+1 走势：+2.2%^{[FMP D+1]}。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。 ## 3种情景 ### 情景 A · 超预期 **Q4 EPS > $1.11 + 资本支出纪律** 阈值：EPS > $1.11^{[FMP est]}。目标：突破中位数目标价 $280^{[FMP target]}；高目标价 $315^[FMP] 为上限。 ### 情景 B · 符合预期 **EPS ≈ $1.11 + CapEx < $124.0M** 阈值：EPS ≈ $1.11^{[FMP est]}，Q4 资本支出 < $124.0M^[FMP]。目标：在当前价 $240^[FMP] 与中位数目标价 $280^[FMP] 区间内盘整。 ### 情景 C · 未达预期 **EPS < $1.08 或 CapEx ≥ $124.0M** 阈值：EPS < $1.08^{[FMP est×0.97]}。目标：当前价 $240 低于 200日均线 $210^[FMP]，若持续拒绝，则激活 $179^[derived] 支撑位。 ## 风险提示 ### {{segment}} 低于阈值 Q4 季度：EPS $1.05 vs 预期 $0.96^[FMP]，超出预期，股价 D+1 +2.2%^[FMP]。 ### 对 OpenAI 的依赖 Q4 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。 ### 内幕交易 Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。 | 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 | |---|---|---|---| **净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q4 FY25 ### 资本支出冲击 Q4 季度资本支出 $124.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}。 Q4 营业利润率 %26.6^{[FMP op margin]} — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。 ## 华尔街共识 - **中位数目标价:** $280 (+16.9% upside vs current $240) - **高 / 低:** $315 / $228 - **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 20 / 3 / 0 - **分析师数量:** 12 (上一季度), 40 历史总数 ## 额外财报电话会议洞察 ### 1. commercial_aerospace_growth **主张:** Commercial aerospace growth remained strong throughout 2025, driven by accelerating demand for engine spares and a record backlog for new, more fuel-efficient aircraft. **证据 (会议记录):** "Commercial aerospace growth remained strong throughout 2025, with revenue up 13% in the fourth quarter and up 12% for the full year." **数据:** 13%, 12%, 2025 ### 2. defense_aerospace_growth **主张:** Defense aerospace growth continued to be robust at 20% in the fourth quarter, driven by engine spares, which increased 32% as well as new F-35 aircraft builds. **证据 (会议记录):** "Defense aerospace growth continued to be robust at 20% in the fourth quarter. For the full year, Defense aerospace was up 21%, driven by engine spares, which increased 32% as well as new F-35 aircraft builds." **数据:** 20%, 21%, 32%, F-35 ### 3. gas_turbine_growth **主张:** Gas turbine growth has been very strong with revenue up 32% in the fourth quarter, driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers. **证据 (会议记录):** "Gas turbine growth has been very strong with revenue up 32% in the fourth quarter and up 25% for the full year. Gas turbine growth is driven by the increased demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers." **数据:** 32%, 25% ### 4. spares_revenue_growth **主张:** Spares revenue accelerated throughout 2025 and now represents 21% of total revenue versus 17% in 2024 and 11% before and 11% in 2019. **证据 (会议记录):** "Spares revenue accelerated throughout 2025 and now represents 21% of total revenue versus 17% in 2024 and 11% before and 11% in 2019." **数据:** 21%, 17%, 11%, 11%, 2025, 2024, 2019 ### 5. EBITDA_margin_increase **主张:** Howmet's EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.3% in 2025 with a fourth quarter exit rate of 30.1%. **证据 (会议记录):** "EBITDA margin increased 350 basis points to 29.3% with a fourth quarter exit rate of 30.1%." **数据:** 350, 29.3%, 30.1% ### 6. engine_products_growth **主张:** The Engine Products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 20% to $1.16 billion. **证据 (会议记录):** "The Engine Products team delivered another record quarter for revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin. Quarterly revenue increased 20% to $1.16 billion, commercial aerospace was up 17%, and defense aerospace was up 18%." **数据:** 20%, 1.16, 17%, 18% --- *数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-04)，Q4 FY2025 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*