--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/zh/earnings/ma last_updated: 2026-05-03T20:40:27.511Z --- # Mastercard Incorporated (MA) Q4 FY2026 财报预览 > 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T20:40:26.631Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。 --- ## 快速摘要 | 字段 | 值 | 来源 | |---|---|---| | 价格 | $495.46 (▼ -1.48%) | fmp:quote | | 市值 | $438.6B | fmp:profile | | 52周区间 | $480.50 – $601.77 | fmp:quote | | 财报 | 周四 30 7月 | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS 预期 | $4.80 (+16% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 营收预期 | $9.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 超预期连胜 | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | 评级 | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | 分析师中位数目标价 | $658 (+32.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 60/100 | derived | | Council | 4/6 bullish | derived | | 芒格结论 | 低估 | derived | ## Mastercard Incorporated — Q4 FY2026 预期 Q4 季度共识：营收 $9.1B^{[FMP est]}，EPS $4.80^{[FMP est]}。连续 8 个季度超出预期^{[FMP earnings]}。 ## 快速概览 **得分：** B · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 4/6 · **Moonshot：** 60 = MoonshotScore 60^{[MoonshotScore]} + Council 4/6^[Council]。Form 4: 0 笔交易^{[FMP Form 4]}。 ## 观察列表 (6个指标) ### 1. Q2 Revenue Guidance 如果不考虑中东冲突的影响，预计2026年第二季度的收入增长将与第一季度基本持平。 > "关于我们对2026年第二季度的预期，预计在不包括无机活动的情况下，按货币中性计算，同比增长率将在较低的两位数范围内。这包括我们目前对中东冲突影响的估计，如果没有这些影响，我们预计第二季度的增长将与第一季度基本持平（按货币中性计算）。" > — Sachin Mehra, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026 ### 2. Ethoca Growth 上个季度，Ethoca产品总体同比增长约25%。Checkout.com将把Ethoca警报嵌入到其全球数字体验中，使商家能够直接注册预先退款纠纷解决方案。 > "上个季度，Ethoca产品总体同比增长约25%。Checkout.com将把Ethoca警报嵌入到其全球数字体验中，使商家能够直接注册预先退款纠纷解决方案。" > — Michael Miebach, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 3. Share Repurchases 鉴于目前的估值水平以及对长期增长潜力的坚定信心，该公司在本季度回购了价值40亿美元的股票，并在2026年4月27日之前额外回购了17亿美元。 > "在本季度，我们回购了价值40亿美元的股票，并在2026年4月27日之前额外回购了17亿美元。本季度，鉴于目前的估值水平以及我们对长期增长潜力的坚定信心，我们加快了股票回购的步伐。" > — Sachin Mehra, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 4. Agentic Ecommerce Openai 我们正在深化与OpenAI的合作关系，加强他们对Mastercard Agent Pay的使用，致力于实现代理之间的支付，并合作将我们的服务嵌入到他们的解决方案中，同时以企业客户的身份使用他们的工具。 > "我们正在深化与OpenAI的合作关系，加强他们对Mastercard Agent Pay的使用，致力于实现代理之间的支付，并合作将我们的服务嵌入到他们的解决方案中，同时以企业客户的身份使用他们的工具。" > — Michael Miebach, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 5. Mastercard One Credential 我们将继续扩大Mastercard One凭证的规模，这是一个与多个资金来源（如信用卡、借记卡和分期付款）相关联的单一Mastercard凭证。 > "我们将继续扩大Mastercard One凭证的规模，这是一个与多个资金来源（如信用卡、借记卡和分期付款）相关联的单一Mastercard凭证。" > — Michael Miebach, CEO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ### 6. Cross Border Travel Impact 从3月份开始，我们开始看到中东冲突对跨境旅行产生了一些影响。 > "正如人们所预料的那样，从3月份开始，我们开始看到中东冲突对跨境旅行产生了一些影响。" > — Sachin Mehra, CFO, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore 支柱 | 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 | |---|---|---|---| | 营收增长 | 2.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: 温和增长 (+%3.3) | | 毛利率 | 8.0 | strong | Q1: 极高毛利率 (%75.7，软件/云服务级别) | | 经营杠杆 | 6.0 | medium | 营业利润率非常强劲 (%58.4，规模杠杆) | | 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 非常强劲 ($2.8B，是资本支出的 18.5 倍以上) | | 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) | | 价格动能 | 4.0 | medium | RSI 43.1 动能疲弱，50日均线之下 | | 新闻情绪 | 9.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (92%) | **公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7视角) | 名称 | 立场 | 背景 | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +32.7% | | Ken Griffin | bear | 资金流 · 50日均线之下 | | Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 43 | | Klarman | bull | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +32.7% | | Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 | | Munger | bull | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +32.7% | **公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## 芒格视角 - **结论:** 低估 - **财务健康:** Moderate - **安全边际:** Strong - **利息覆盖率:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## 技术水平 - **RSI(14):** 43.1 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50日均线:** $507 — hisse %2.2 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200日均线:** $548 — hisse %9.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **成交量 (10日):** +25% ## 历史表现 (4个季度) | 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY25 | $4.15 | $4.03 | BEAT | -1.2% | | Q3 FY25 | $4.38 | $4.32 | BEAT | -0.3% | | Q4 FY25 | $4.76 | $4.24 | BEAT | -0.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $4.60 | $4.41 | +4.3% EPS | -1.5% | Q1 (2026年4月30日): EPS $4.60 vs 预期 $4.41^[FMP]，超出 +%4.3。D+1 走势：-1.5%^{[FMP D+1]}。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。 ## 3种情景 ### 情景 A · 超预期 **Q4 EPS > $4.80 + 资本支出纪律** 阈值：EPS > $4.80^{[FMP est]}。目标：突破中位数目标价 $658^{[FMP target]}；高目标价 $739^[FMP] 为上限。 ### 情景 B · 符合预期 **EPS ≈ $4.80 + CapEx < $154.0M** 阈值：EPS ≈ $4.80^{[FMP est]}，Q4 资本支出 < $154.0M^[FMP]。目标：在当前价 $495^[FMP] 与中位数目标价 $658^[FMP] 区间内盘整。 ### 情景 C · 未达预期 **EPS < $4.66 或 CapEx ≥ $154.0M** 阈值：EPS < $4.66^{[FMP est×0.97]}。目标：当前价 $495 低于 200日均线 $548^[FMP]，若持续拒绝，则激活 $466^[derived] 支撑位。 ## 风险提示 ### {{segment}} 低于阈值 Q1 季度：EPS $4.60 vs 预期 $4.41^[FMP]，超出预期，股价 D+1 -1.5%^[FMP]。 Sachin Mehra Q1 transcript: "As it relates to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the low end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity."^{[Sachin Mehra]}. ### 对 OpenAI 的依赖 Q1 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。 ### 内幕交易 Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。 | 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 | |---|---|---|---| **净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q1 FY26 ### 资本支出冲击 Q1 季度资本支出 $154.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}。 Q1 营业利润率 %58.4^{[FMP op margin]} — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。 ## 华尔街共识 - **中位数目标价:** $658 (+32.7% upside vs current $495) - **高 / 低:** $739 / $590 - **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 36 / 3 / 0 - **分析师数量:** 9 (上一季度), 110 历史总数 ## 额外财报电话会议洞察 ### 1. q2_revenue_guidance **主张:** Excluding the impacts from the conflict in the Middle East, revenue growth for Q2 2026 is expected to be generally in line with the first quarter. **证据 (会议记录):** "As it relates to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the low end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity. This includes our current estimates for the impacts from the conflict in the Middle East, without which we would have expected Q2 growth to be generally in line with the first quarter on a currency-neutral basis." **数据:** 2026, Q2 ### 2. share_repurchases **主张:** The company repurchased $4 billion worth of stock during the quarter and an additional $1.7 billion through April 27, 2026, given current valuation levels and its strong conviction in its long-term growth potential. **证据 (会议记录):** "During the quarter, we repurchased $4 billion worth of stock and an additional $1.7 billion through April 27, 2026. This quarter, we accelerated the pace of our share buybacks given current valuation levels and our strong conviction in our long-term growth potential." **数据:** $4 billion, $1.7 billion, 27, 2026 ### 3. cross_border_travel_impact **主张:** Starting in March, we began to see some impact on cross-border travel from the conflict and the Middle East. **证据 (会议记录):** "As one would expect, starting in March, we began to see some impact on cross-border travel from the conflict and the Middle East." **数据:** — ### 4. ethoca_growth **主张:** Collectively, Ethoca products grew around 25 plan year-over-year last quarter. Checkout.com will embed Ethoca alerts into their global digital experience enable merchants to enroll directly in precharge-back dispute resolutions. **证据 (会议记录):** "Collectively, Ethoca products grew around 25 plan year-over-year last quarter. Checkout.com will embed Ethoca alerts into their global digital experience enable merchants to enroll directly in precharge-back dispute resolutions." **数据:** 25 ### 5. agentic_ecommerce_openai **主张:** We're deepening our partnership with OpenAI, reinforcing their use of Mastercard Agent Pay, working to enable agent-to-agent payments and collaborating to embed our services across their solutions while using their tools as an enterprise customer. **证据 (会议记录):** "We're deepening our partnership with OpenAI, reinforcing their use of Mastercard Agent Pay, working to enable agent-to-agent payments and collaborating to embed our services across their solutions while using their tools as an enterprise customer." **数据:** — ### 6. mastercard_one_credential **主张:** We continue to scale Mastercard One credential a single Mastercard credential linked to multiple funding sources such as credit, debit and installments. **证据 (会议记录):** "We continue to scale Mastercard One credential a single Mastercard credential linked to multiple funding sources such as credit, debit and installments." **数据:** — --- *数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*