--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/zh/earnings/mck last_updated: 2026-05-04T09:59:37.766Z --- # McKesson Corporation (MCK) Q4 FY2026 财报预览 > **[stale-preview-note]** 注：本预览发布于2026-05-07财报之前。请以最新公告为准。 > 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-04T09:59:37.042Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。 --- ## 快速摘要 | 字段 | 值 | 来源 | |---|---|---| | 价格 | $814.02 (▼ -0.14%) | fmp:quote | | 市值 | $99.7B | fmp:profile | | 52周区间 | $637.00 – $999.00 | fmp:quote | | 财报 | 周四 7 5月 | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS 预期 | $11.56 (+14% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 营收预期 | $101.3B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 超预期连胜 | 4/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | 评级 | B- (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings | | 分析师中位数目标价 | $985 (+21.0% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 47/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | 芒格结论 | 合理估值 | derived | ## McKesson Corporation — Q4 FY2026 预期 Q4 季度共识：营收 $101.3B^{[FMP est]}，EPS $11.56^{[FMP est]}。连续 4 个季度超出预期^{[FMP earnings]}。 ## 快速概览 **得分：** B- · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 2/6 · **Moonshot：** 47 = MoonshotScore 47^{[MoonshotScore]} + Council 2/6^[Council]。Form 4: 0 笔交易^{[FMP Form 4]}。 ## 观察列表 (5个指标) ### 1. Prescription Technology Solutions Growth 在处方技术解决方案领域，收入增长 9% 至 14 亿美元，营业利润增长 20% 至 2.61 亿美元。 > "在处方技术解决方案领域，收入增长 9% 至 14 亿美元，这得益于我们第三方物流和技术服务业务的处方量增加。营业利润增长 20% 至 2.61 亿美元，反映出对访问解决方案的需求增加，包括 GLP-1 药物的预先授权服务。" > — Britt Vitalone, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Glp 1 Medication Revenue 本季度 GLP-1 药物的收入为 132 亿美元，与去年同期相比增长了约 26 亿美元，增幅为 24%。 > "本季度 GLP-1 药物的收入为 132 亿美元，与去年同期相比增长了约 26 亿美元，增幅为 24%。" > — Britt Vitalone, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Oncology Multispecialty Growth 在肿瘤学和多专科领域，收入增长 32% 至 120 亿美元，这得益于强大的供应商和专业分销增长。 > "在肿瘤学和多专科领域，收入增长 32% 至 120 亿美元，这得益于强大的供应商和专业分销增长，包括 2026 财年第一季度完成的收购的贡献。" > — Britt Vitalone, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Fy26 Eps Guidance Increase McKesson 正在提高其 2026 财年调整后每股摊薄收益预期至 38.35 美元至 38.85 美元，这建立在第二季度强劲的业绩以及对今年剩余时间前景的信心之上。 > "鉴于我们上半年的业绩以及我们对今年前景的信心，我们将调整后每股摊薄收益的指引提高至 38.35 美元至 38.85 美元。" > — Brian Tyler, CEO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Medical Surgical Solutions Outlook McKesson 预计，由于疾病季节产品销量下降，医疗外科解决方案领域的收入和营业利润将处于 2% 至 6% 增长范围的低端。 > "由于与去年相比，疾病季节产品销量低于预期，包括疫苗和检测，以及流动和长期护理机构的销量下降，我们预计收入和营业利润将处于 2% 至 6% 增长范围的低端。" > — Britt Vitalone, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore 支柱 | 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 | |---|---|---|---| | 营收增长 | 8.0 | strong | Q3 vs Q4: 快速增长 (+%16.9) | | 毛利率 | 0.0 | weak | Q3: 低毛利率 (%3.5，资本密集型或大宗商品) | | 经营杠杆 | 0.0 | weak | 营业利润率疲弱 (%1.5，承压) | | 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 非常强劲 ($1.1B，是资本支出的 10.4 倍以上) | | 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) | | 价格动能 | 4.0 | medium | RSI 29.4 超卖，50日均线之下 | | 新闻情绪 | 8.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (82%) | **公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7视角) | 名称 | 立场 | 背景 | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +21.0% | | Ken Griffin | bear | 资金流 · 50日均线之下 | | Jim Simons | bull | 量化 · RSI 29 | | Klarman | neutral | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +21.0% | | Buffett | neutral | 质量 · ROE 评分 1/5 | | Munger | neutral | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +21.0% | **公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## 芒格视角 - **结论:** 合理估值 - **财务健康:** Weak - **安全边际:** Moderate - **利息覆盖率:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## 技术水平 - **RSI(14):** 29.4 — oversold (RSI 29.4) — tepki alımı potansiyeli - **50日均线:** $894 — hisse %8.9 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200日均线:** $813 — hisse %0.2 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **成交量 (10日):** -28% ## 历史表现 (4个季度) | 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q4 FY25 | $10.12 | $9.83 | BEAT | +0.5% | | Q1 FY26 | $8.26 | $8.14 | BEAT | -5.8% | | Q2 FY26 | $9.86 | $9.03 | BEAT | +1.7% | | Q3 FY26 | $9.34 | $9.17 | +1.9% EPS | +16.5% | Q2 (2025年11月5日): EPS $9.34 vs 预期 $9.17^[FMP]，超出 +%1.9。D+1 走势：+16.5%^{[FMP D+1]}。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。 ## 3种情景 ### 情景 A · 超预期 **Q4 EPS > $11.56 + 资本支出纪律** 阈值：EPS > $11.56^{[FMP est]}。目标：突破中位数目标价 $985^{[FMP target]}；高目标价 $1085^[FMP] 为上限。 ### 情景 B · 符合预期 **EPS ≈ $11.56 + CapEx < $108.0M** 阈值：EPS ≈ $11.56^{[FMP est]}，Q4 资本支出 < $108.0M^[FMP]。目标：在当前价 $814^[FMP] 与中位数目标价 $985^[FMP] 区间内盘整。 ### 情景 C · 未达预期 **EPS < $11.21 或 CapEx ≥ $108.0M** 阈值：EPS < $11.21^{[FMP est×0.97]}。目标：当前价 $814 低于 200日均线 $813^[FMP]，若持续拒绝，则激活 $691^[derived] 支撑位。 ## 风险提示 ### {{segment}} 低于阈值 Q2 季度：EPS $9.34 vs 预期 $9.17^[FMP]，超出预期，股价 D+1 +16.5%^[FMP]。 ### 对 OpenAI 的依赖 Q2 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。 ### 内幕交易 Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。 | 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 | |---|---|---|---| **净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q3 FY26 ### 资本支出冲击 Q2 季度资本支出 $108.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}。 Q2 营业利润率 %1.5^{[FMP op margin]} — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。 ## 华尔街共识 - **中位数目标价:** $985 (+21.0% upside vs current $814) - **高 / 低:** $1085 / $966 - **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 14 / 3 / 0 - **分析师数量:** 3 (上一季度), 37 历史总数 ## 额外财报电话会议洞察 ### 1. fy26_eps_guidance_increase **主张:** McKesson is raising its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per diluted share guidance to $38.35 to $38.85, building on strong Q2 performance and confidence in the outlook for the remainder of the year. **证据 (会议记录):** "Given our first half performance and our confidence in the outlook for the year, we are raising our guidance on adjusted earnings per diluted share to $38.35 to $38.85." **数据:** $38.35, $38.85 ### 2. oncology_multispecialty_growth **主张:** In the Oncology and Multispecialty segment, revenues increased 32% to $12 billion, driven by strong provider and specialty distribution growth. **证据 (会议记录):** "In the Oncology and Multispecialty segment, revenues increased 32% to $12 billion, driven by strong provider and specialty distribution growth, including contributions from acquisitions completed in the first quarter of fiscal 2026." **数据:** 32%, $12 ### 3. prescription_technology_solutions_growth **主张:** In the Prescription Technology Solutions segment, revenues increased 9% to $1.4 billion, and operating profit rose 20% to $261 million. **证据 (会议记录):** "In the Prescription Technology Solutions segment, revenues increased 9% to $1.4 billion, driven by increased prescription volumes across our third-party logistics and technology services businesses. Operating profit rose 20% to $261 million, reflecting increased demand for access solutions, including prior authorization services for GLP-1 medications." **数据:** 9%, $1.4, 20%, $261 ### 4. medical_surgical_solutions_outlook **主张:** McKesson anticipates revenue and operating profit in the Medical-Surgical Solutions segment to be at the low end of the 2% to 6% growth range due to lower illness season product volumes. **证据 (会议记录):** "Due to lower-than-anticipated illness season product volumes compared to the prior year, including vaccines and testing and lower volumes across ambulatory and extended care settings, we anticipate revenue and operating profit at the low end of 2% to 6% growth." **数据:** 2%, 6% ### 5. glp_1_medication_revenue **主张:** Revenues from GLP-1 medications were $13.2 billion in the quarter, an increase of approximately $2.6 billion or 24% when compared to the prior year. **证据 (会议记录):** "Revenues from GLP-1 medications were $13.2 billion in the quarter, an increase of approximately $2.6 billion or 24% when compared to the prior year." **数据:** $13.2, $2.6, 24% --- *数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-04)，Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*