--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/zh/earnings/mdt last_updated: 2026-05-04T09:57:56.739Z --- # Medtronic plc (MDT) Q4 FY2026 财报预览 > **[stale-preview-note]** 注：本预览发布于2026-06-03财报之前。请以最新公告为准。 > 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-04T09:57:55.803Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。 --- ## 快速摘要 | 字段 | 值 | 来源 | |---|---|---| | 价格 | $80.00 (▼ -1.20%) | fmp:quote | | 市值 | $102.7B | fmp:profile | | 52周区间 | $78.91 – $106.33 | fmp:quote | | 财报 | 周三 3 6月 | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS 预期 | $1.58 (-2% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 营收预期 | $9.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 超预期连胜 | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | 评级 | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | 分析师中位数目标价 | $112 (+39.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 51/100 | derived | | Council | 3/6 bullish | derived | | 芒格结论 | 低估 | derived | ## Medtronic plc — Q4 FY2026 预期 Q4 季度共识：营收 $9.6B^{[FMP est]}，EPS $1.58^{[FMP est]}。连续 8 个季度超出预期^{[FMP earnings]}。 ## 快速概览 **得分：** B · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 3/6 · **Moonshot：** 51 = MoonshotScore 51^{[MoonshotScore]} + Council 3/6^[Council]。Form 4: 0 笔交易^{[FMP Form 4]}。 ## 观察列表 (6个指标) ### 1. Fy26 Revenue Guidance 美敦力正在提高其 2026 财年的收入增长预期至约 5.5%，这基于其今年上半年的出色表现以及对收入增长加速的信心。 > "鉴于我们在今年上半年的出色表现，以及我们对收入增长加速的信心，我们今天提高了全年收入指导。今年迄今为止，我们实现了 5.2% 的有机增长，我们预计今年下半年将进一步加速。因此，现在预计 2026 财年的收入增长约为 5.5%。" > — Thierry Pieton, Chief Financial Officer, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Pfa Growth 美敦力 PFA 特许经营业务势头强劲，增长 71%，实现了该领域最高的增长率。 > "在心脏消融领域，我们的 PFA 特许经营业务正在产生巨大的动力。我们增长了 71%，与上一季度近 50% 的 CAS 增长相比，这是一个强劲的加速。这是这个庞大且快速增长的领域中任何公司中最高的增长率。" > — Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Cardiovascular Growth 美敦力的心血管产品组合增长了 9%，创下了十多年来最强劲的增长，这得益于 CAS 的发展势头。 > "首先，我将从我们的心血管产品组合开始，我们增长了 9%。这是我们十多年来最强劲的增长，不包括我们在疫情之后进行的简单比较。增长加速是由我们在 CAS 中不断增强的势头推动的，Geoff 向您介绍了这一点。" > — Thierry Pieton, Chief Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Afera Durability 医生们对 Afera 系统的更短手术时间和卓越的耐用性表示赞赏，从而推动了对额外系统的需求。 > "医生告诉我们，他们不仅赞赏 Afera 的手术时间更短，而且越来越重视其卓越的耐用性。而且，我们不断听到客户表示他们希望购买额外的 Afera 系统以扩展到更多的实验室，因此需求仍然非常高。" > — Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Simplicity Medicare Ncd 已收到 Simplicity 高血压手术的最终 Medicare NCD，通过实现广泛的访问并消除患者途径障碍，从而带来了重要的机会。 > "我们很高兴在三周前收到了 Simplicity 的最终 Medicare NCD。因此，除了 FDA 的广泛标签外，我们还获得了 CMS 的出色覆盖结果。最终的 NCD 实现了广泛的访问，并消除了原始提案中的某些患者途径障碍，包括减少面对面访问、取消肾功能排除以及将药物依从性所需的时间减半。" > — Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 6. Altaviva Launch Altaviva 在美国上市的最初几周出现了积极迹象，医生培训项目需求旺盛，消费者搜索活动激增。 > "我们在美国上市的最初几周看到了非常积极的迹象。医生培训项目供不应求。我们正在扩大培训能力以满足这一需求。医生们正在积累病例，早期的媒体报道推动了消费者搜索活动的激增。" > — Geoffrey Martha, chairman and chief executive officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore 支柱 | 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 | |---|---|---|---| | 营收增长 | 1.0 | weak | Q3 vs Q4: 增长放缓 (+%1.0，低于阈值) | | 毛利率 | 6.0 | medium | Q3: 高毛利率 (%64.9) | | 经营杠杆 | 2.0 | weak | 营业利润率健康 (%19.7) | | 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 非常强劲 ($2.3B，是资本支出的 5.2 倍以上) | | 研发投入强度 | 7.0 | strong | 平衡的研发投资 (%8.1) | | 价格动能 | 4.0 | medium | RSI 32.1 动能疲弱，50日均线之下 | | 新闻情绪 | 6.0 | medium | 多数为买入 (62%) | **公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7视角) | 名称 | 立场 | 背景 | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +39.4% | | Ken Griffin | bear | 资金流 · 50日均线之下 | | Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 32 | | Klarman | bull | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +39.4% | | Buffett | neutral | 质量 · ROE 评分 3/5 | | Munger | bull | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +39.4% | **公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## 芒格视角 - **结论:** 低估 - **财务健康:** Moderate - **安全边际:** Strong - **利息覆盖率:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight **公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## 技术水平 - **RSI(14):** 32.1 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50日均线:** $88 — hisse %9.4 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200日均线:** $94 — hisse %15.0 altında — uzun vadeli baskı - **成交量 (10日):** -14% ## 历史表现 (4个季度) | 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q4 FY25 | $1.62 | $1.58 | BEAT | -4.1% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.26 | $1.23 | BEAT | +3.7% | | Q2 FY26 | $1.36 | $1.31 | BEAT | -0.5% | | Q3 FY26 | $1.36 | $1.34 | +1.5% EPS | +2.2% | Q2 (2025年11月18日): EPS $1.36 vs 预期 $1.34^[FMP]，超出 +%1.5。D+1 走势：+2.2%^{[FMP D+1]}。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。 ## 3种情景 ### 情景 A · 超预期 **Q4 EPS > $1.58 + 资本支出纪律** 阈值：EPS > $1.58^{[FMP est]}。目标：突破中位数目标价 $112^{[FMP target]}；高目标价 $120^[FMP] 为上限。 ### 情景 B · 符合预期 **EPS ≈ $1.58 + CapEx < $444.0M** 阈值：EPS ≈ $1.58^{[FMP est]}，Q4 资本支出 < $444.0M^[FMP]。目标：在当前价 $80^[FMP] 与中位数目标价 $112^[FMP] 区间内盘整。 ### 情景 C · 未达预期 **EPS < $1.53 或 CapEx ≥ $444.0M** 阈值：EPS < $1.53^{[FMP est×0.97]}。目标：当前价 $80^[derived] 低于 200日均线 $94^[FMP]，若持续拒绝，则激活 $80 支撑位。 ## 风险提示 ### {{segment}} 低于阈值 Q2 季度：EPS $1.36 vs 预期 $1.34^[FMP]，超出预期，股价 D+1 +2.2%^[FMP]。 ### 对 OpenAI 的依赖 Q2 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。 ### 内幕交易 Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。 | 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 | |---|---|---|---| **净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q3 FY26 ### 资本支出冲击 Q2 季度资本支出 $444.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}。 Q2 营业利润率 %19.7^{[FMP op margin]} — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。 ## 华尔街共识 - **中位数目标价:** $112 (+39.4% upside vs current $80) - **高 / 低:** $120 / $95 - **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 18 / 11 / 0 - **分析师数量:** 10 (上一季度), 84 历史总数 ## 额外财报电话会议洞察 ### 1. pfa_growth **主张:** Medtronic's PFA franchise is generating significant momentum, growing 71% and achieving the highest growth rate in the space. **证据 (会议记录):** "In cardiac ablation, our PFA franchise is generating just a ton of momentum. We grew 71%, which is a strong acceleration from last quarter's nearly 50% CAS growth. This is the highest growth rate of any company in this large and fast-growing space." **数据:** 71%, 50% ### 2. afera_durability **主张:** Physicians appreciate the shorter procedure times and outstanding durability of Afera systems, driving demand for additional systems. **证据 (会议记录):** "Physicians tell us that they appreciate not only the shorter procedure times that they're seeing with Afera, but increasingly, they're calling out its outstanding durability as well. And demand continues to be extremely high as we hear repeatedly from customers that they want to purchase additional affair systems to expand into even more of their labs." **数据:** — ### 3. simplicity_medicare_ncd **主张:** The final Medicare NCD for the Simplicity procedure for hypertension has been received, presenting a significant opportunity by enabling broad access and removing patient pathway barriers. **证据 (会议记录):** "And we're excited to have received the final Medicare NCD for simplicity three weeks ago. So now in addition to a broad label from the FDA, we have an excellent coverage outcome from CMS. The final NCD enables broad access and removes certain patient pathway barriers that were in the original proposal, including reducing in-person visits, removing a kidney function exclusion, and cutting in half the time requirement for adherence to meds." **数据:** — ### 4. altaviva_launch **主张:** Positive signs are emerging in the first weeks of the Altaviva US launch, with high demand for physician training programs and a surge in consumer search activity. **证据 (会议记录):** "We're seeing very positive signs in the first several weeks of The US launch. Physician training programs are oversubscribed. And we're expanding training capacity to meet this demand. Physicians are stacking cases and early media coverage has driven a surge in consumer search activity." **数据:** — ### 5. cardiovascular_growth **主张:** Medtronic's cardiovascular portfolio grew 9%, marking its strongest growth in over a decade, driven by momentum in CAS. **证据 (会议记录):** "So I'll start with our cardiovascular portfolio, where we grew 9%. This was our strongest growth over a decade, excluding the easy comparisons we had after the pandemic. The growth acceleration was driven by our building momentum in CAS, which Geoff walked you through." **数据:** 9% ### 6. fy26_revenue_guidance **主张:** Medtronic is raising its fiscal 2026 revenue growth expectation to approximately 5.5%, based on its outperformance in the first half of the year and confidence in revenue growth acceleration. **证据 (会议记录):** "Given our outperformance in the first half of the year, as well as the confidence we have in our revenue growth acceleration, we're raising our full-year revenue guidance today. Year to date, we've delivered 5.2% organic growth, and we expect this to further accelerate in the back half of the year. As a result, now expect fiscal 2026 revenue growth of approximately 5.5%." **数据:** 5.5%, 5.2%, 2026 --- *数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-04)，Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*