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# Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Q4 FY2026 财报预览

> 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T23:19:52.325Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。

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## 快速摘要

| 字段 | 值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| 价格 | $414.19 (▲ 1.57%) | fmp:quote |
| 市值 | $3.08T | fmp:profile |
| 52周区间 | $356.28 – $555.45 | fmp:quote |
| 财报 | 周三 29 7月 | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS 预期 | $4.23 (+16% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 营收预期 | $87.6B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 超预期连胜 | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| 评级 | A- (overall 4/5) | fmp:ratings |
| 分析师中位数目标价 | $550 (+32.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 64/100 | derived |
| Council | 5/7 bullish | derived |
| 芒格结论 | 低估 | derived |

## Microsoft Corporation — Q4 FY2026 预期

Q4 季度共识：营收 <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$87.6B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>，EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$4.23</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>。连续 8 个季度超出预期<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>。

## 快速概览

**得分：** A- · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 5/7 · **Moonshot：** 64

= MoonshotScore <strong>64</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="MoonshotScore">[MoonshotScore]</sup> + Council <strong>5/7</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="Council">[Council]</sup>。Form 4: 0 笔交易<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>。

## 观察列表 (5个指标)

### 1. Copilot Growth

Microsoft 365 Copilot 的日活跃用户同比增长 10 倍，目前拥有 1500 万个付费 Microsoft 365 Copilot 席位。

> "Microsoft 365 Copilot 也正成为一种真正的日常习惯，日活跃用户同比增长 10 倍。我们看到席位增长逐季加速，目前拥有 1500 万个付费 Microsoft 365 Copilot 席位"
> — Satya Nadella, CEO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 2. Microsoft Cloud Revenue

Microsoft Cloud 收入为 515 亿美元，按固定汇率计算增长 26%。

> "Microsoft Cloud 收入为 515 亿美元，按固定汇率计算增长 26%。"
> — Amy Hood, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 3. Fy26 Operating Margins

微软现在预计 26 财年的运营利润率将略有上升，这得益于上半年在优先投资关键增长领域方面所做的扎实工作，以及我们的 Windows OEM 和商业本地业务中更高的收入组合带来的有利影响。

> "由于上半年在优先投资关键增长领域方面所做的扎实工作，以及我们的 Windows OEM 和商业本地业务中更高的收入组合带来的有利影响，我们现在预计 26 财年的运营利润率将略有上升。"
> — Amy Hood, CFO, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026

### 4. Azure Growth Q3 Guidance

微软预计 Azure 收入增长将达到 37%-38%（按固定汇率计算），与去年同期相比。

> "在 Azure 方面，我们预计第三季度收入增长将达到 37%-38%（按固定汇率计算），而去年同期也包括在内。"
> — Amy Hood, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026

### 5. Commercial Rpo

商业剩余履约义务增加至 6250 亿美元，我们商业 RPO 余额的约 45% 来自 OpenAI。

> "商业剩余履约义务（继续以净额（扣除准备金）报告）增加至 6250 亿美元。我们商业 RPO 余额的约 45% 来自 OpenAI。"
> — Amy Hood, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026


## MoonshotScore 支柱

| 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 营收增长 | 4.0 | medium | Q3 vs Q4: 健康增长 (+%8.4) |
| 毛利率 | 7.0 | strong | Q3: 极高毛利率 (%67.6，软件/云服务级别) |
| 经营杠杆 | 5.0 | medium | 营业利润率非常强劲 (%46.3，规模杠杆) |
| 现金流储备 | 6.0 | medium | FCF 为正但被吞噬 ($15.8B 对比 $30.9B CapEx) |
| 研发投入强度 | 7.0 | strong | 平衡的研发投资 (%10.8) |
| 价格动能 | 7.0 | strong | RSI 54.5 平衡，50日均线 之上 |
| 新闻情绪 | 9.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (95%) |

**公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7视角)

| 名称 | 立场 | 背景 |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +32.8% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | 资金流 · 50日均线 之上 |
| Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 54 |
| Englander | neutral | 多策略 · Copilot 同比增长 +%10 |
| Klarman | bull | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +32.8% |
| Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 |
| Munger | bull | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +32.8% |

**公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## 芒格视角

- **结论:** 低估
- **财务健康:** Strong
- **安全边际:** Strong
- **利息覆盖率:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## 技术水平

- **RSI(14):** 54.5 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf
- **50日均线:** $396 — hisse %4.6 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200日均线:** $468 — hisse %11.5 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **成交量 (10日):** -12%

## 历史表现 (4个季度)

| 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY25 | $3.65 | $3.37 | BEAT | +3.9% |
| Q1 FY26 | $4.13 | $3.67 | BEAT | -2.9% |
| Q2 FY26 | $4.14 | $3.90 | BEAT | -10.0% |
| Q3 FY26 | $4.27 | $4.06 | +5.2% EPS | -3.9% |

Q2 (2026年1月28日): EPS $4.27 vs 预期 $4.06<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出 +%5.2。D+1 走势：-3.9%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。

## 3种情景

### 情景 A · 超预期
**Q4 EPS > $4.23 + Azure ≥ %38**

阈值：EPS > $4.23<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup> 且 Azure ≥ %38。

目标：突破中位数目标价 $550<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>；高目标价 $675<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> 为上限。

### 情景 B · 符合预期
**EPS ≈ $4.23 + Azure %37-38 + {{cfoOrCeo}} 兑现资本支出承诺**

阈值：EPS ≈ $4.23<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>，Azure %37-38，Q4 资本支出 < $30.9B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>。

目标：在当前价 $414<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> 与中位数目标价 $550<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup> 区间内盘整。

### 情景 C · 未达预期
**EPS < $4.10 或 Azure < %35 或 资本支出 ≥ $30.9B**

阈值：EPS < $4.10<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup> 或 Azure < %35。

目标：当前价 $414 低于 200日均线 $468<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>，若持续拒绝，则激活 $398<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> 支撑位。

## 风险提示

### {{segment}} 低于阈值
Q2 季度：EPS $4.27 vs 预期 $4.06<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出预期，股价 D+1 -3.9%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>。 Amy Hood Q2 transcript: "In Azure, we expect Q3 revenue growth to be between 37-38% in constant currency against a prior year comparable that included."<sup class="cite" data-source="transcript:q-prev" data-field="transcript.azureQuoteEn" title="Amy Hood">[Amy Hood]</sup>.

### 对 OpenAI 的依赖
Q2 财报电话会议中披露的总 RPO 为 $625B 的承诺收入；其中 %45（约 $281B）与 OpenAI 关系相关<sup class="cite" data-source="transcript:q-prev" data-field="transcript.rpoTotalLabel" title="transcript RPO disclosure">[transcript RPO disclosure]</sup>。

### 内幕交易
Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。

| 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 |
|---|---|---|---|


**净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q3 FY26

### 资本支出冲击
Q2 季度资本支出 $30.9B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>。 Amy Hood Q2 transcript: "We expect capital expenditures to decrease on a sequential basis due to a normal variability from cloud infrastructure build-outs and the timing of delivery of finance leases."<sup class="cite" data-source="transcript:q-prev" data-field="transcript.capexQuoteEn" title="Amy Hood transcript">[Amy Hood transcript]</sup>. Q2 营业利润率 %46.3<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。

## 华尔街共识

- **中位数目标价:** $550 (+32.8% upside vs current $414)
- **高 / 低:** $675 / $415
- **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 52 / 3 / 0
- **分析师数量:** 17 (上一季度), 249 历史总数

## 额外财报电话会议洞察

### 1. azure_growth_q3_guidance

**主张:** MSFT expects Azure revenue growth to be between %37-38 in constant currency against the prior year comparable.

**证据 (会议记录):** "In Azure, we expect Q3 revenue growth to be between 37-38% in constant currency against a prior year comparable that included."

**数据:** 37-38%

### 2. microsoft_cloud_revenue

**主张:** Microsoft Cloud revenue was $51.5 billion grew 26% in constant currency.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Microsoft Cloud revenue was $51.5 billion grew 26% in constant currency."

**数据:** $51.5, 26%

### 3. commercial_rpo

**主张:** Commercial remaining performance obligation increased to $625 billion, and approximately 45% of our commercial RPO balance is from OpenAI.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Commercial remaining performance obligation, continues to be reported net of reserves, increased to $625 billion. Approximately 45% of our commercial RPO balance is from OpenAI."

**数据:** $625, 45%

### 4. fy26_operating_margins

**主张:** MSFT now expects FY '26 operating margins to be up slightly with the strong work delivered in H1 to prioritize investment in key growth areas and the favorable impact from a higher mix of revenue in our Windows OEM and commercial on-prem businesses.

**证据 (会议记录):** "With the strong work delivered in H1 to prioritize investment in key growth areas and the favorable impact from a higher mix of revenue in our Windows OEM and commercial on-prem businesses we now expect FY '26 operating margins to be up slightly."

**数据:** 26

### 5. copilot_growth

**主张:** Microsoft 365 Copilot's daily active users increasing 10x year over year and now have 15 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Microsoft 365 Copilot also is becoming a true daily habit with daily active users increasing 10x year over year. We saw accelerating seat growth quarter over quarter and now have 15 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats"

**数据:** 10x, 15


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*数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*