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# Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Q4 FY2026 财报预览

> **[stale-preview-note]** 注：本预览发布于2026-06-10财报之前。请以最新公告为准。

> 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-07-03T06:13:18.389Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。

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## 快速摘要

| 字段 | 值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| 价格 | $244.54 (▼ -1.45%) | fmp:quote |
| 市值 | $703.3B | fmp:profile |
| 52周区间 | $134.57 – $345.72 | fmp:quote |
| 财报 | 周三 10 6月 | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS 预期 | $1.96 (+15% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 营收预期 | $19.1B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 超预期连胜 | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| 评级 | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| 分析师中位数目标价 | $240 (-1.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 47/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| 芒格结论 | 高估 | derived |

## Oracle Corporation — Q4 FY2026 预期

Q4 季度共识：营收 <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$19.1B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>，EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$1.96</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>。Doug Caring 在 Q2 财报电话会议中将 Cloud infrastructure 指引下调至 %37-41 (此前为 %66)<sup class="cite" data-source="transcript:q-prev" data-field="transcript.azureQuoteEn" title="Doug Caring Q-prev transcript">[Doug Caring Q-prev transcript]</sup>。连续 2 个季度超出预期<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>。

## 快速概览

**得分：** B · **立场：** SELL · **Council：** 2/6 · **Moonshot：** 47

= MoonshotScore <strong>47</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="MoonshotScore">[MoonshotScore]</sup> + Council <strong>2/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="Council">[Council]</sup>。Cloud infrastructure 指引下调 %66 → %37-41<sup class="cite" data-source="transcript:q-prev" data-field="transcript.azureGuidanceUpper" title="Doug Caring Q-prev transcript">[Doug Caring Q-prev transcript]</sup> 以及当前的 Form 4 信号 (0 笔交易)<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup> 阻止了 A- 评级。

## 观察列表 (5个指标)

### 1. Multi Cloud Database Growth

甲骨文的多云数据库消费同比增长817%，公司推出了新的通用积分和渠道经销商计划，使客户能够在任何云中使用甲骨文数据库服务，并享受一致的定价和灵活性。

> "多云数据库消费同比增长817%。本季度我们推出了两项重要的多云计划。第一个是多云通用积分，它使客户能够一次性承诺使用甲骨文数据库服务，并在任何云中以相同的价格和灵活性使用它。"
> — Clay McGork, Chief Executive Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 2. Total Cloud Revenue Acceleration

甲骨文的总云收入显著加速，同比增长33%，达到80亿美元，而去年增长率为24%，目前占公司总收入的一半。

> "包括应用程序和基础设施在内的总云收入增长33%，达到80亿美元，而去年增长率为24%，目前占公司总收入的一半。"
> — Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 3. Rpo Growth Diversification

甲骨文的剩余履约义务（RPO）同比增长433%，达到5233亿美元，与Meta和NVIDIA等公司签订的合同使客户积压订单多样化。

> "剩余履约义务（RPO）在本季度末达到5233亿美元，比去年增长433%，自8月以来增长680亿美元。这得益于与Meta、NVIDIA等公司签订的合同，我们持续多样化客户积压订单。"
> — Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 4. Fy26 Capex Increase

甲骨文将其2026财年资本支出预测较第一季度预测增加了150亿美元，以支持加速增长并迅速将新的RPO变现。

> "然而，鉴于本季度新增的RPO可以从明年开始迅速变现，我们现在预计2026财年的资本支出将比我们在第一季度后预测的增加约150亿美元。"
> — Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026

### 5. Oci Gpu Demand

甲骨文的云基础设施收入增长66%，达到41亿美元，其中GPU相关收入飙升177%，显示出比竞争对手快得多的增长。

> "云基础设施收入为41亿美元，增长66%，其中GPU相关收入增长177%。甲骨文的云基础设施业务继续比我们的竞争对手增长快得多。"
> — Doug Caring, Principal Financial Officer, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026


## MoonshotScore 支柱

| 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 营收增长 | 4.0 | medium | Q3 vs Q4: 健康增长 (+%8.1) |
| 毛利率 | 6.0 | medium | Q3: 高毛利率 (%62.2) |
| 经营杠杆 | 3.0 | weak | 营业利润率非常强劲 (%32.8，规模杠杆) |
| 现金流储备 | 3.0 | weak | FCF 为负 ($-11.5B，需要外部融资) |
| 研发投入强度 | 5.0 | medium | 高研发强度 (%16.1，积极) |
| 价格动能 | 4.0 | medium | RSI 77.7 超买，50日均线 之上 |
| 新闻情绪 | 8.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (84%) |

**公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7视角)

| 名称 | 立场 | 背景 |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | neutral | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 -1.9% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | 资金流 · 50日均线 之上 |
| Jim Simons | bear | 量化 · RSI 78 |
| Klarman | bear | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 -1.9% |
| Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 |
| Munger | bear | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 -1.9% |

**公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## 芒格视角

- **结论:** 高估
- **财务健康:** Moderate
- **安全边际:** Weak
- **利息覆盖率:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## 技术水平

- **RSI(14):** 77.7 — overbought (RSI 77.7) — geri çekilme baskısı
- **50日均线:** $175 — hisse %39.9 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200日均线:** $207 — hisse %18.1 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **成交量 (10日):** +23%

## 历史表现 (4个季度)

| 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY25 | $1.70 | $1.64 | BEAT | +13.3% |
| Q1 FY26 | $1.47 | $1.48 | MISS | +35.9% |
| Q2 FY26 | $2.26 | $1.64 | BEAT | -10.8% |
| Q3 FY26 | $1.79 | $1.70 | +5.3% EPS | +9.2% |

Q2 (2025年12月10日): EPS $1.79 vs 预期 $1.70<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出 +%5.3。D+1 走势：+9.2%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。

## 3种情景

### 情景 A · 超预期
**Q4 EPS > $1.96 + Cloud infrastructure ≥ %41**

阈值：EPS > $1.96<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup> 且 Cloud infrastructure ≥ %41。

目标：突破中位数目标价 $240<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>；高目标价 $400<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> 为上限。

### 情景 B · 符合预期
**EPS ≈ $1.96 + Cloud infrastructure %37-41 + {{cfoOrCeo}} 兑现资本支出承诺**

阈值：EPS ≈ $1.96<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>，Cloud infrastructure %37-41，Q4 资本支出 < $18.6B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>。

目标：在当前价 $245<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> 与中位数目标价 $240<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup> 区间内盘整。

### 情景 C · 未达预期
**EPS < $1.90 或 Cloud infrastructure < %35 或 资本支出 ≥ $18.6B**

阈值：EPS < $1.90<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup> 或 Cloud infrastructure < %35。

目标：当前价 $245 低于 200日均线 $207<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>，若持续拒绝，则激活 $176<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> 支撑位。

## 风险提示

### {{segment}} 低于阈值
Q2 季度：EPS $1.79 vs 预期 $1.70<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出预期，股价 D+1 +9.2%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>。 Doug Caring Q2 transcript: "total cloud revenue is expected to grow from 37% to 41% in constant currency"<sup class="cite" data-source="transcript:q-prev" data-field="transcript.azureQuoteEn" title="Doug Caring">[Doug Caring]</sup>.

### 对 OpenAI 的依赖
Q2 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。

### 内幕交易
Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。

| 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 |
|---|---|---|---|


**净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q3 FY26

### 资本支出冲击
Q2 季度资本支出 $18.6B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>。 Q2 营业利润率 %32.8<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。

## 华尔街共识

- **中位数目标价:** $240 (-1.9% upside vs current $245)
- **高 / 低:** $400 / $160
- **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 36 / 6 / 1
- **分析师数量:** 14 (上一季度), 182 历史总数

## 额外财报电话会议洞察

### 1. rpo_growth_diversification

**主张:** Oracle's Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) surged 433% year-over-year to $523.3 billion, with contracts signed with companies like Meta and NVIDIA diversifying the customer backlog.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Remaining Performance Obligations, or RPO, ended the quarter at $523.3 billion, up 433% from last year and up $68 billion since August. Driven by contracts signed with Meta, NVIDIA, and others as we continue to diversify our customer backlog."

**数据:** $523.3 billion, %433, $68 billion

### 2. total_cloud_revenue_acceleration

**主张:** Oracle's total cloud revenue significantly accelerated, growing 33% to $8 billion compared to last year's 24% growth rate, and now accounts for half of the company's overall revenue.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Total cloud revenue, which includes both applications and infrastructure, was up 33% at $8 billion. Representing a significant acceleration from the 24% growth rate reported last year. Cloud revenue now accounts for half of Oracle's overall revenue."

**数据:** %33, $8 billion, %24, half

### 3. oci_gpu_demand

**主张:** Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue grew 66% to $4.1 billion, with GPU-related revenue soaring 177%, demonstrating significantly faster growth than competitors.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Cloud infrastructure revenue was $4.1 billion, up 66% with GPU-related revenue growing 177%. Oracle's cloud infrastructure businesses continue to grow much faster than our competitors."

**数据:** $4.1 billion, %66, %177

### 4. fy26_capex_increase

**主张:** Oracle increased its FY2026 CapEx forecast by $15 billion compared to its Q1 projections to support accelerating growth and quickly monetize new RPO.

**证据 (会议记录):** "However, given the added RPO this quarter, can be monetized quickly starting next year, we now expect fiscal 2026 CapEx will be about $15 billion higher than we forecasted after Q1."

**数据:** 2026, $15 billion, Q1

### 5. ai_data_platform_integration

**主张:** Oracle is integrating its new AI database and AI data platform with its applications to enable the latest AI models to perform multi-step reasoning on private enterprise data, creating significant value for customers.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Now with the development of the Oracle AI database, and the Oracle AI data platform, we're bringing all three layers of our software stack together to solve another very important problem. Enabling the latest and most powerful AI models to do multistep reasoning on all your private enterprise data while keeping that data private and secure."

**数据:** —

### 6. multi_cloud_database_growth

**主张:** Oracle's multi-cloud database consumption surged 817% year-over-year, with the company launching new universal credits and channel reseller programs enabling customers to use Oracle database services in any cloud with consistent pricing and flexibility.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Multi-cloud database consumption has increased 817% year over year. We launched two important programs this quarter for multi-cloud. The first is multi-cloud universal credits, which enables customers to commit once to Oracle database services and use it anywhere in any cloud with the same price and flexibility."

**数据:** %817


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*数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-07-03)，Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*