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# O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Q4 FY2026 财报预览

> 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-04T10:38:52.793Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。

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## 快速摘要

| 字段 | 值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| 价格 | $96.65 (▼ -2.77%) | fmp:quote |
| 市值 | $80.9B | fmp:profile |
| 52周区间 | $86.77 – $108.72 | fmp:quote |
| 财报 | 周三 29 7月 | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS 预期 | $0.86 (+10% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 营收预期 | $4.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 超预期连胜 | 1/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| 评级 | C+ (overall 2/5) | fmp:ratings |
| 分析师中位数目标价 | $110 (+13.8% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 50/100 | derived |
| Council | 2/6 bullish | derived |
| 芒格结论 | 合理估值 | derived |

## O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 预期

Q4 季度共识：营收 <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$4.9B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>，EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$0.86</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>。连续 1 个季度超出预期<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>。

## 快速概览

**得分：** C+ · **立场：** HOLD · **Council：** 2/6 · **Moonshot：** 50

= MoonshotScore <strong>50</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="MoonshotScore">[MoonshotScore]</sup> + Council <strong>2/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="Council">[Council]</sup>。Form 4: 0 笔交易<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>。

## 观察列表 (5个指标)

### 1. Capex 2026

O'Reilly 预计 2026 年的总资本支出投资为 13 亿美元至 14 亿美元。

> "第一季度的资本支出为 2.44 亿美元，我们仍然预计 2026 年的总资本支出投资为 13 亿美元至 14 亿美元。"
> — Brent Kirby, Risk Indicator · Q1 FY2026

### 2. Eps Guidance Increase

O'Reilly 将全年稀释后每股收益预期提高至 3.15 美元至 3.25 美元。

> "在结束之前，我想指出的是，我们将全年稀释后每股收益预期提高至 3.15 美元至 3.25 美元。"
> — Brad Beckham, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 3. Full Year Guidance

O'Reilly 维持了全年同店销售额增长 3% 至 5% 的预期。

> "我们维持了全年同店销售额增长 3% 至 5% 的预期。"
> — Brad Beckham, Expectation / Guide · Q1 FY2026

### 4. Comp Sales Growth

O'Reilly 第一季度同店销售额增长 8.1%，超出预期。

> "我们同店销售额增长 8.1%，远超预期，并且我们很高兴看到本季度业务双方的贡献均超出计划。"
> — Brad Beckham, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026

### 5. Inventory Per Store

每家门店的库存量在第一季度末达到 87.4 万美元，比去年同期增长 8.5%。

> "每家门店的库存量在第一季度末达到 87.4 万美元，比去年同期增长 8.5%，比去年年底增长 0.5%。"
> — Brent Kirby, Investor Focus · Q1 FY2026


## MoonshotScore 支柱

| 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 营收增长 | 0.0 | weak | Q1 vs Q2: 增长放缓 (+%0.8，低于阈值) |
| 毛利率 | 5.0 | medium | Q1: 高毛利率 (%51.5) |
| 经营杠杆 | 2.0 | weak | 营业利润率健康 (%18.5) |
| 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 非常强劲 ($0.8B，是资本支出的 3.2 倍以上) |
| 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) |
| 价格动能 | 7.0 | strong | RSI 59.3 动能积极，50日均线 之上 |
| 新闻情绪 | 8.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (81%) |

**公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7视角)

| 名称 | 立场 | 背景 |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +13.8% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | 资金流 · 50日均线 之上 |
| Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 59 |
| Klarman | neutral | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +13.8% |
| Buffett | neutral | 质量 · ROE 评分 1/5 |
| Munger | neutral | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +13.8% |

**公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## 芒格视角

- **结论:** 合理估值
- **财务健康:** Weak
- **安全边际:** Moderate
- **利息覆盖率:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Tight

**公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## 技术水平

- **RSI(14):** 59.3 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50日均线:** $93 — hisse %4.4 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200日均线:** $97 — hisse %0.6 altında — uzun vadeli baskı
- **成交量 (10日):** +32%

## 历史表现 (4个季度)

| 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | $0.78 | $0.78 | MISS | +2.9% |
| Q3 FY25 | $0.85 | $0.83 | BEAT | -2.9% |
| Q4 FY25 | $0.71 | $0.73 | MISS | -4.0% |
| Q1 FY26 | $0.72 | $0.72 | +0.1% EPS | +8.4% |

Q1 (2026年4月30日): EPS $0.72 vs 预期 $0.72<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出 +%0.1。D+1 走势：+8.4%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。

## 3种情景

### 情景 A · 超预期
**Q4 EPS > $0.86 + 资本支出纪律**

阈值：EPS > $0.86<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>。

目标：突破中位数目标价 $110<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>；高目标价 $115<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> 为上限。

### 情景 B · 符合预期
**EPS ≈ $0.86 + CapEx < $244.4M**

阈值：EPS ≈ $0.86<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>，Q4 资本支出 < $244.4M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>。

目标：在当前价 $97<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> 与中位数目标价 $110<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup> 区间内盘整。

### 情景 C · 未达预期
**EPS < $0.84 或 CapEx ≥ $244.4M**

阈值：EPS < $0.84<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>。

目标：当前价 $97<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup> 低于 200日均线 $97，若持续拒绝，则激活 $83<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> 支撑位。

## 风险提示

### {{segment}} 低于阈值
Q1 季度：EPS $0.72 vs 预期 $0.72<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出预期，股价 D+1 +8.4%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>。

### 对 OpenAI 的依赖
Q1 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。

### 内幕交易
Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。

| 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 |
|---|---|---|---|


**净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q1 FY26

### 资本支出冲击
Q1 季度资本支出 $244.4M<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>。 Q1 营业利润率 %18.5<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。

## 华尔街共识

- **中位数目标价:** $110 (+13.8% upside vs current $97)
- **高 / 低:** $115 / $105
- **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 22 / 4 / 1
- **分析师数量:** 13 (上一季度), 49 历史总数

## 额外财报电话会议洞察

### 1. comp_sales_growth

**主张:** O'Reilly surpassed expectations with an 8.1% increase in comparable store sales in the first quarter.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Our comp growth of 8.1% solidly surpassed our expectations, and we were pleased to see above-planned contributions from both sides of our business in the quarter."

**数据:** 8.1%

### 2. professional_comps

**主张:** O'Reilly's professional business posted double-digit comps for the third straight quarter with its first quarter results.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Our professional business continues to be the larger contributor to our total comp results, with our first quarter results marking the third straight quarter we have posted double-digit professional comps."

**数据:** —

### 3. full_year_guidance

**主张:** O'Reilly has maintained its full-year comparable store sales guidance range of 3% to 5%.

**证据 (会议记录):** "We have maintained our full-year comparable store sales guidance range of 3% to 5%."

**数据:** 3%, 5%

### 4. eps_guidance_increase

**主张:** O'Reilly is increasing its full-year diluted earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.15 to $3.25.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Before I wrap up, I would like to note that we are increasing our full-year diluted earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.15 to $3.25."

**数据:** 3.15, 3.25

### 5. capex_2026

**主张:** O'Reilly expects a total capital expenditure investment in 2026 of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Capital expenditures for the first quarter were $244 million, and we still expect a total capital expenditure investment in 2026 of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion."

**数据:** 244, 1.3, 1.4

### 6. inventory_per_store

**主张:** Inventory per store finished the first quarter at $874 thousand, which was up 8.5% from this time last year.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Inventory per store finished the first quarter at $874 thousand, which was up 8.5% from this time last year and up 0.5% from the end of the year."

**数据:** 874, 8.5%, 0.5%


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*数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-04)，Q1 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*