--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/zh/earnings/tjx last_updated: 2026-05-03T21:10:52.117Z --- # The TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) Q4 FY2026 财报预览 > **[stale-preview-note]** 注：本预览发布于2026-05-20财报之前。请以最新公告为准。 > 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T21:10:50.799Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。 --- ## 快速摘要 | 字段 | 值 | 来源 | |---|---|---| | 价格 | $156.83 (▲ 0.05%) | fmp:quote | | 市值 | $174.2B | fmp:profile | | 52周区间 | $119.84 – $165.82 | fmp:quote | | 财报 | 周三 20 5月 | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS 预期 | $1.00 (+9% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 营收预期 | $14.0B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 超预期连胜 | 8/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | 评级 | B (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | 分析师中位数目标价 | $170 (+8.4% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 57/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | 芒格结论 | 合理估值 | derived | ## The TJX Companies, Inc. — Q4 FY2026 预期 Q4 季度共识：营收 $14.0B^{[FMP est]}，EPS $1.00^{[FMP est]}。连续 8 个季度超出预期^{[FMP earnings]}。 ## 快速概览 **得分：** B · **立场：** HOLD · **Council：** 2/6 · **Moonshot：** 57 = MoonshotScore 57^{[MoonshotScore]} + Council 2/6^[Council]。Form 4: 0 笔交易^{[FMP Form 4]}。 ## 观察列表 (5个指标) ### 1. Profit Margin Increase TJX报告第二季度税前利润率为11.4%，比去年增长50个基点，远高于计划。 > "第二季度税前利润率为11.4%，比去年增长50个基点，远高于我们的计划。" > — John Klinger, Risk Indicator · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Comp Sales Growth TJX报告第二季度综合同店销售额增长4%，好于预期，所有部门的客户交易量均有所增长。 > "总体而言，第二季度同店销售额超出我们的预期，增长了4%，并且在我们所有部门均表现强劲。客户交易量在所有部门均有所增长，并推动了我们整体同店销售额的增长。" > — Ernie Herrman, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Tjx International Growth TJX International报告同店销售额大幅增长5%，其中欧洲销售额强劲，澳大利亚销售额突出。 > "在TJX International，同店销售额大幅增长5%。我们再次很高兴看到欧洲的销售额强劲，澳大利亚的销售额突出。" > — John Klinger, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Merchandise Availability TJX报告称，由于他们一直在购买市场上看到的优质品牌商品的绝佳机会，资产负债表库存增加了14%，每家门店的库存比去年增加了10%。 > "资产负债表库存增加了14%，每家门店的库存比去年增加了10%，因为我们一直在购买市场上看到的优质品牌商品的绝佳机会。" > — John Klinger, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Marmaxx Performance Marmaxx的同店销售额强劲增长3%，这得益于平均购物篮金额的增加和客户交易量的增加，并且所有收入阶层的门店业绩均表现强劲。 > "在Marmaxx，同店销售额强劲增长3%。平均购物篮金额的增加和客户交易量的增加共同推动了同店销售额的增长。很高兴看到我们门店在所有收入阶层的业绩均表现强劲，这表明我们的价值观具有广泛的吸引力。" > — John Klinger, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore 支柱 | 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 | |---|---|---|---| | 营收增长 | 10.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: 快速增长 (+%35.3) | | 毛利率 | 3.0 | weak | Q4: 平均毛利率 (%30.9) | | 经营杠杆 | 1.0 | weak | 营业利润率平均 (%13.3) | | 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 非常强劲 ($2.6B，是资本支出的 5.6 倍以上) | | 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) | | 价格动能 | 4.0 | medium | RSI 45.8 平衡，50日均线之下 | | 新闻情绪 | 9.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (90%) | **公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7视角) | 名称 | 立场 | 背景 | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +8.4% | | Ken Griffin | bear | 资金流 · 50日均线之下 | | Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 46 | | Klarman | neutral | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +8.4% | | Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +8.4% | **公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## 芒格视角 - **结论:** 合理估值 - **财务健康:** Moderate - **安全边际:** Weak - **利息覆盖率:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## 技术水平 - **RSI(14):** 45.8 — dengeli — yön sinyali zayıf - **50日均线:** $158 — hisse %1.0 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200日均线:** $148 — hisse %5.9 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **成交量 (10日):** +15% ## 历史表现 (4个季度) | 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q1 FY26 | $0.92 | $0.92 | BEAT | -1.1% | | Q2 FY26 | $1.10 | $1.01 | BEAT | -0.5% | | Q3 FY26 | $1.28 | $1.23 | BEAT | +1.5% | | Q4 FY26 | $1.43 | $1.39 | +2.9% EPS | +1.8% | Q2 (2025年8月20日): EPS $1.43 vs 预期 $1.39^[FMP]，超出 +%2.9。D+1 走势：+1.8%^{[FMP D+1]}。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。 ## 3种情景 ### 情景 A · 超预期 **Q4 EPS > $1.00 + 资本支出纪律** 阈值：EPS > $1.00^{[FMP est]}。目标：突破中位数目标价 $170^{[FMP target]}；高目标价 $193^[FMP] 为上限。 ### 情景 B · 符合预期 **EPS ≈ $1.00 + CapEx < $468.0M** 阈值：EPS ≈ $1.00^{[FMP est]}，Q4 资本支出 < $468.0M^[FMP]。目标：在当前价 $157^[FMP] 与中位数目标价 $170^[FMP] 区间内盘整。 ### 情景 C · 未达预期 **EPS < $0.97 或 CapEx ≥ $468.0M** 阈值：EPS < $0.97^{[FMP est×0.97]}。目标：当前价 $157 低于 200日均线 $148^[FMP]，若持续拒绝，则激活 $126^[derived] 支撑位。 ## 风险提示 ### {{segment}} 低于阈值 Q2 季度：EPS $1.43 vs 预期 $1.39^[FMP]，超出预期，股价 D+1 +1.8%^[FMP]。 ### 对 OpenAI 的依赖 Q2 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。 ### 内幕交易 Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。 | 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 | |---|---|---|---| **净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q4 FY26 ### 资本支出冲击 Q2 季度资本支出 $468.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}。 Q2 营业利润率 %13.3^{[FMP op margin]} — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。 ## 华尔街共识 - **中位数目标价:** $170 (+8.4% upside vs current $157) - **高 / 低:** $193 / $150 - **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 18 / 1 / 1 - **分析师数量:** 1 (上一季度), 68 历史总数 ## 额外财报电话会议洞察 ### 1. comp_sales_growth **主张:** TJX reported a better-than-expected consolidated comp sales increase of 4% in the second quarter, with customer transactions up at every division. **证据 (会议记录):** "Overall, comp sales for the second quarter exceeded our expectations, increasing 4% and were strong across all of our divisions. Customer transactions were up at every division and drove our overall comp sales increase." **数据:** 4% ### 2. profit_margin_increase **主张:** TJX reported a second-quarter pre-tax profit margin of 11.4%, up 50 basis points versus last year and well above plan. **证据 (会议记录):** "Second quarter pre-tax profit margin of 11.4% was up 50 basis points versus last year and well above our plan." **数据:** 11.4%, 50 ### 3. full_year_guidance_increase **主张:** TJX is raising its full-year guidance for both pre-tax profit margin and earnings per share due to strong second-quarter results and above-plan sales. **证据 (会议记录):** "With our profit results in the second quarter also well exceeding our plan, we are raising our full-year guidance for both pre-tax profit margin and earnings per share." **数据:** — ### 4. merchandise_availability **主张:** TJX reported that balance sheet inventory was up 14%, and inventory on a per-store basis was up 10% versus last year, as they've been buying into the excellent opportunities for quality, branded merchandise they've been seeing in the marketplace. **证据 (会议记录):** "Balance sheet inventory was up 14%, and inventory on a per-store basis was up 10% versus last year, as we've been buying into the excellent opportunities for quality, branded merchandise we've been seeing in the marketplace." **数据:** 14%, 10% ### 5. marmaxx_performance **主张:** Marmaxx saw strong comp sales growth of 3%, driven by a combination of a higher average basket and an increase in customer transactions, with strength in store performance across all income demographics. **证据 (会议记录):** "At Marmaxx, comp sales grew a strong 3%. A combination of a higher average basket and an increase in customer transactions drove the comp increase. It was great to see strength in our store performance across all income demographics, which speaks to our broad-based appeal of our values." **数据:** 3% ### 6. tjx_international_growth **主张:** TJX International reported a very strong comp sales increase of 5%, with strong sales in Europe and outstanding sales in Australia. **证据 (会议记录):** "At TJX International, comp sales increased a very strong 5%. Once again, we're very pleased to see sales strength in Europe and outstanding sales in Australia." **数据:** 5% --- *数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*