--- canonical_url: https://www.stockexpertai.com/zh/earnings/txn last_updated: 2026-07-31T06:14:49.432Z --- # Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Q1 FY2027 财报预览 > 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-07-31T06:14:48.471Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。 --- ## 快速摘要 | 字段 | 值 | 来源 | |---|---|---| | 价格 | $278.76 (▲ 2.75%) | fmp:quote | | 市值 | $254.6B | fmp:profile | | 52周区间 | $152.73 – $334.03 | fmp:quote | | 财报 | 周二 27 10月 | fmp:earnings-history | | EPS 预期 | $2.40 (+62% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 营收预期 | $5.9B | fmp:earnings-estimate | | 超预期连胜 | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history | | 评级 | B- (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings | | 分析师中位数目标价 | $323 (+15.7% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus | | MoonshotScore | 63/100 | derived | | Council | 2/6 bullish | derived | | 芒格结论 | 合理估值 | derived | ## Texas Instruments Incorporated — Q1 FY2027 预期 Q1 季度共识：营收 $5.9B^{[FMP est]}，EPS $2.40^{[FMP est]}。连续 2 个季度超出预期^{[FMP earnings]}。 ## 快速概览 **得分：** B- · **立场：** BUY · **Council：** 2/6 · **Moonshot：** 63 = MoonshotScore 63^{[MoonshotScore]} + Council 2/6^[Council]。Form 4: 0 笔交易^{[FMP Form 4]}。 ## 观察列表 (5个指标) ### 1. Q3 Guidance Market Strength 德州仪器预计第三季度将实现超季节性增长，这得益于工业、数据中心、汽车和个人电子产品市场的广泛需求。 > "我认为我们——目前，截至7月，我们看到需求更加强劲，而且范围更广。不仅仅是过去几个季度，它确实是工业和数据中心的表现。目前，我们看到汽车市场的需求正在增长。我想我——我将谈谈第三季度。当你考虑高于季节性指引时，我认为贡献将来自所有市场。推动第二季度增长的三个市场，即工业、数据中心和汽车。但第三季度传统上是个人电子产品表现强劲的季度。因此，我预计全面强劲的需求。" > — Haviv Ilan, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026 ### 2. Data Center Tailwinds 数据中心市场预计将继续保持强劲需求，800伏等未来架构将通过增加模拟和嵌入式部件的总可寻址市场和转换阶段，提供显著的推动力。 > "再次强调，Atif，我们确实继续看到数据中心市场的强劲需求，我预计在可预见的未来不会改变。我认为当你谈论——思考像800伏这样的未来架构时，它将分阶段进入市场。我认为你可以想象，一开始可能是交流到直流，可能是交流到800伏，然后是800到48，48到12，例如，对吗？这就是你引入技术的方式。所以对我来说，这只意味着TAM的更高增长，更多的转换阶段，如果你考虑参与每个转换阶段的不同模拟部件以及嵌入式控制器和信号链部件，这有助于我们在模拟和嵌入式方面的市场。所以我认为这对我们的市场来说是一个顺风。" > — Haviv Ilan, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 3. Industrial Market Recovery 工业市场尽管近期有所增长，但仍比2022年的峰值低5-6个百分点，这表明仍有巨大的持续增长空间，并受到数据中心基础设施以及测试和测量带来的利好因素的进一步支持。 > "让我先谈谈工业市场，也许最后我会说几句关于定价的话。所以，Vivek，我认为我们面前有很多机会。我们——即使第二季度增长良好，我们仍然——我必须回到2022年，我们仍然低于那个峰值，可能比2022年的峰值低5或6个百分点。所以如果你考虑工业市场的趋势线，我喜欢将其视为市场TAM机会的中高个位数增长。你——而且你是在4年后，可以说我们前面还有很大的增长空间。最重要的是，我认为数据中心市场也为工业市场提供了顺风。想想能源基础设施等行业，想想测试和测量。它们是我们在第二季度或上半年增长最快的细分市场或行业。所以我认为未来会有更多的顺风。我确实相信客户处于早期阶段，尚未建立库存。所以我认为目前的态势非常积极。" > — Haviv Ilan, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 4. Pricing Initiatives H2 2026 德州仪器已于下半年开始实施价格上涨，预计第三季度将产生部分影响，并持续到第四季度和明年，影响模拟和嵌入式两个细分市场。 > "我想说，我们已经开始执行价格上涨，是的。而且由于我们直接面向市场，我们有——这种讨论。这不是与我们的分销渠道进行的一次性讨论。这实际上是逐个客户的讨论。所以，如果你愿意，它将——它将取决于客户。其中一些将在第三季度开始发挥作用，但我预计这将持续到第四季度。而且，我们的一些客户，我们每年在年度价格讨论中决定一次价格，这只发生在第四季度末。所以这也可以持续到明年。关于细分市场，即模拟和嵌入式，看，我们看到最大压力的领域，也在交货时间延长方面，我提到了汽车。目前主要在模拟方面。这是我们上半年看到的情况。但我想说，嵌入式正在加入这一趋势。所以，如果我能——如果我看看我们下半年的机会，我认为我们在所有市场都有机会，但也在这两个细分市场都有机会。我认为嵌入式的定价讨论将更侧重于明年。" > — Haviv Ilan, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ### 5. Automotive Market Inflection 汽车市场正经历一个拐点，需求加速，尤其是在电动汽车和混合动力汽车领域，再加上客户库存水平极低，情况更加复杂。 > "现在关于汽车，我认为我们看到了几个因素的结合。我认为我们确实看到了增长——顺便说一句，它在整个季度都在发展。所以当我们在4月份召开电话会议时，我们没有相同的可见性。它在整个季度中逐渐建立起来，由中国主导。我认为它确实是由电动汽车和混合动力汽车驱动的。我相信燃油成本推动了这一点。此外，我认为我们的汽车客户已经将库存降至非常低的水平。现在，随着需求略有增加，他们发现自己处于一种不可持续的境地。我认为这也推动了部分需求。我认为我们正处于一个非常非常广泛的周期的开始。" > — Haviv Ilan, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026 ## MoonshotScore 支柱 | 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 | |---|---|---|---| | 营收增长 | 8.0 | strong | Q2 vs Q3: 快速增长 (+%15.2) | | 毛利率 | 6.0 | medium | Q2: 高毛利率 (%61.4) | | 经营杠杆 | 4.0 | medium | 营业利润率非常强劲 (%42.3，规模杠杆) | | 现金流储备 | 10.0 | strong | FCF 非常强劲 ($2.2B，是资本支出的 4.3 倍以上) | | 研发投入强度 | 7.0 | strong | 平衡的研发投资 (%10.7) | | 价格动能 | 4.0 | medium | RSI 43.3 动能疲弱，50日均线之下 | | 新闻情绪 | 5.0 | medium | 混合 (47% 买入) | **公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula. ## Council (7视角) | 名称 | 立场 | 背景 | |---|---|---| | Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +15.7% | | Ken Griffin | bear | 资金流 · 50日均线之下 | | Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 43 | | Klarman | neutral | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +15.7% | | Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 | | Munger | neutral | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +15.7% | **公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr. ## 芒格视角 - **结论:** 合理估值 - **财务健康:** Moderate - **安全边际:** Moderate - **利息覆盖率:** Adequate - **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy **公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget. ## 技术水平 - **RSI(14):** 43.3 — momentum zayıf — oversold yakınında değil ama alıcı baskısı az - **50日均线:** $299 — hisse %6.7 altında — kısa vadeli direnç - **200日均线:** $226 — hisse %23.3 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek - **成交量 (10日):** -2% ## 历史表现 (4个季度) | 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3 FY25 | $1.48 | $1.49 | MISS | -5.6% | | Q4 FY25 | $1.27 | $1.29 | MISS | +9.9% | | Q1 FY26 | $1.68 | $1.36 | BEAT | +19.4% | | Q2 FY26 | $2.14 | $1.91 | +12.0% EPS | -3.1% | Q2 (2026年7月22日): EPS $2.14 vs 预期 $1.91^[FMP]，超出 +%12.0。D+1 走势：-3.1%^{[FMP D+1]}。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。 ## 3种情景 ### 情景 A · 超预期 **Q1 EPS > $2.40 + 资本支出纪律** 阈值：EPS > $2.40^{[FMP est]}。目标：突破中位数目标价 $323^{[FMP target]}；高目标价 $405^[FMP] 为上限。 ### 情景 B · 符合预期 **EPS ≈ $2.40 + CapEx < $514.0M** 阈值：EPS ≈ $2.40^{[FMP est]}，Q1 资本支出 < $514.0M^[FMP]。目标：在当前价 $279^[FMP] 与中位数目标价 $323^[FMP] 区间内盘整。 ### 情景 C · 未达预期 **EPS < $2.33 或 CapEx ≥ $514.0M** 阈值：EPS < $2.33^{[FMP est×0.97]}。目标：当前价 $279 低于 200日均线 $226^[FMP]，若持续拒绝，则激活 $192^[derived] 支撑位。 ## 风险提示 ### {{segment}} 低于阈值 Q2 季度：EPS $2.14 vs 预期 $1.91^[FMP]，超出预期，股价 D+1 -3.1%^[FMP]。 ### 对 OpenAI 的依赖 Q2 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。 ### 内幕交易 Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。 | 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 | |---|---|---|---| **净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q2 FY26 ### 资本支出冲击 Q2 季度资本支出 $514.0M^{[FMP cashflow]}。 Q2 营业利润率 %42.3^{[FMP op margin]} — Q1 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。 ## 华尔街共识 - **中位数目标价:** $323 (+15.7% upside vs current $279) - **高 / 低:** $405 / $225 - **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 17 / 17 / 2 - **分析师数量:** 21 (上一季度), 139 历史总数 ## 额外财报电话会议洞察 ### 1. q3_guidance_market_strength **主张:** Texas Instruments expects above-seasonal Q3 growth driven by broad demand across industrial, data center, automotive, and personal electronics markets. **证据 (会议记录):** "I think we -- right now, as we stand in July, we see a setup that -- of a stronger demand, and it's broader. It's not only in the last couple of quarters, it was really an industrial and data center play. Right now, we are seeing demand growing to the automotive market. I think my -- I'll talk about Q3. When you think about the above seasonal guide, I think the contribution will come from all markets. The 3 markets that we've -- that drove the 2Q growth, meaning industrial, data center and automotive. But Q3 is traditionally a quarter of personal electronics strength. So I expect strong demand across the board." **数据:** Q3, 2Q, 3 ### 2. automotive_market_inflection **主张:** The automotive market is experiencing an inflection point with accelerated demand, particularly in EVs and hybrids, compounded by customers having very low inventory levels. **证据 (会议记录):** "Now regarding automotive, I think we saw a combination of a couple of things. I think we did see an uptick in -- and by the way, it developed throughout the quarter. So when we came to the call in April, we didn't have the same visibility. It built up as we went through the quarter, led by China. And I think it's really led by EVs and hybrids. Cost of fuel drove that, I believe. In addition, I think our automotive customers have taken their inventory to very low levels. And now as there is a little bit more demand, they find themselves in a situation that is not sustainable. I think that also drove part of the demand. I think we are in the start of a cycle that is very, very broad." **数据:** April ### 3. pricing_initiatives_h2_2026 **主张:** Texas Instruments has started executing price increases in the second half of the year, with some impact expected in Q3 and continuing into Q4 and next year, affecting both Analog and Embedded segments. **证据 (会议记录):** "I will say that we have started executing price increases, yes. And because we go to the market direct, we have it -- the discussion. This is not a onetime discussion with our distribution channel. It's really a discussion customer by customer. So if you will, it will be -- it will be dependent on the customer. Some of it will start to play in, in Q3, but I expect that to continue into the fourth quarter. And also, some of our customers, we decide pricing once a year during our annual price discussions, and that happens only at the end of Q4. So that can continue also into the next year. Regarding the segments, meaning Analog and Embedded, look, where we see the most pressure, also within lead time escalations, I mentioned automotive. It's right now mainly on the Analog side. That's what we saw in the first part of the year. But I would say that Embedded is joining the trend. So if I can -- if I look at our opportunity for the second half of the year, I think we have an opportunity across all markets, but also across the 2 segments. I think the pricing discussions for Embedded will be more centered towards the next year." **数据:** Q3, Q4, 2 ### 4. factory_loadings_inventory **主张:** Texas Instruments increased factory loadings in Q2 and maintains available clean room space to support future demand, indicating readiness for various customer demand scenarios. **证据 (会议记录):** "So our loadings did increase from first to second quarter. And throughout the second quarter, it did continue to increase. For third quarter, it will really depend on what demand looks like, but we do have clean room space available that we can equip and ramp so we can support a wide range of scenarios from a customer demand standpoint." **数据:** — ### 5. data_center_tailwinds **主张:** The data center market is expected to continue strong demand, with future architectures like 800 volts providing a significant tailwind by increasing the total addressable market and conversion stages for Analog and Embedded parts. **证据 (会议记录):** "Again, we do continue to see strong demand in the data center market, Atif, and I don't expect that to change in the foreseeable future. I think when you talk -- think about future architectures like 800 volts, it will be phased into the market. I think you can envision at the beginning, maybe an AC to DC, maybe AC to 800 volts and then an 800 to 48, 48 to 12, for example, right? That's how you bring in the technology. So to me, that just means higher growth of the TAM, more conversion stages and that helps our market on the Analog and Embedded side, if you think about the different Analog parts participating in every conversion stage and also the Embedded controllers and the signal chain part. So I think that is a tailwind to -- for our market." **数据:** 800, 48, 12 ### 6. industrial_market_recovery **主张:** The industrial market, despite recent growth, remains 5-6 points below its 2022 peak, suggesting significant room for continued growth, further supported by tailwinds from data center infrastructure and test and measurement. **证据 (会议记录):** "Let me start with the industrial market, and maybe I'll say a few words about pricing at the end. So look, the -- I think, Vivek, we have a lot of opportunity in front of us. We -- even with a nice growth in Q2, we are still -- I have to go back to 2022, and we are still lower than that peak, maybe 5 or 6 points lower than the 2022 peak. So if you think about a trend line of the industrial market, and I like to think about it as mid- to high single-digit growth on a market TAM opportunity. You -- and you're 4 years later, one can argue that we still have a lot of room to grow ahead of us. On top of it, I think the data center market is also providing tailwind into the industrial market. Think about sectors like the energy infrastructure and think about test and measurement. And they were our fastest-growing segments or sectors, as we call them in the second quarter or the first half of the year. So I think there is more tailwinds ahead. I do believe that customers are early and are not yet building inventory. So I think the setup is very positive." **数据:** Q2, 2022, 5, 6, 4 --- *数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-07-31)，Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*