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last_updated: 2026-05-03T23:27:58.464Z
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# Walmart Inc. (WMT) Q4 FY2026 财报预览

> **[stale-preview-note]** 注：本预览发布于2026-05-21财报之前。请以最新公告为准。

> 此内容由 FMP 实时数据 + Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录自动生成。生成时间：2026-05-03T23:27:57.603Z。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。

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## 快速摘要

| 字段 | 值 | 来源 |
|---|---|---|
| 价格 | $131.60 (▼ -0.25%) | fmp:quote |
| 市值 | $1.05T | fmp:profile |
| 52周区间 | $91.89 – $134.69 | fmp:quote |
| 财报 | 周四 21 5月 | fmp:earnings-history |
| EPS 预期 | $0.65 (+7% YoY) | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 营收预期 | $174.5B | fmp:earnings-estimate |
| 超预期连胜 | 2/4 | fmp:earnings-history |
| 评级 | B+ (overall 3/5) | fmp:ratings |
| 分析师中位数目标价 | $138 (+4.9% upside) | fmp:price-target-consensus |
| MoonshotScore | 51/100 | derived |
| Council | 3/6 bullish | derived |
| 芒格结论 | 合理估值 | derived |

## Walmart Inc. — Q4 FY2026 预期

Q4 季度共识：营收 <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvgLabel">$174.5B</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.revenueAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>，EPS <strong data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">$0.65</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg" title="FMP est">[FMP est]</sup>。连续 2 个季度超出预期<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.beatStreakCount" title="FMP earnings">[FMP earnings]</sup>。

## 快速概览

**得分：** B+ · **立场：** HOLD · **Council：** 3/6 · **Moonshot：** 51

= MoonshotScore <strong>51</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="moonshot.score" title="MoonshotScore">[MoonshotScore]</sup> + Council <strong>3/6</strong><sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="council.bullishCount" title="Council">[Council]</sup>。Form 4: 0 笔交易<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:insider-trading" data-field="insider.txCount" title="FMP Form 4">[FMP Form 4]</sup>。

## 观察列表 (5个指标)

### 1. Membership Growth

会员费收入在整个企业中增长了15%以上，Walmart Plus会员费收入实现了两位数的增长。

> "会员费收入在整个企业中增长了15%以上。在美国，山姆俱乐部继续看到会员数量、续订率和Plus会员渗透率的稳步增长，这导致会员费收入增长了7.6%，而Walmart Plus会员费收入实现了两位数的增长。"
> — John David Rainey, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 2. Fy26 Sales Growth Guidance

沃尔玛将26财年的全年销售额增长预期提高至3.75%至4.75%的范围。

> "今天，我们将全年销售额增长预期在不变汇率的基础上提高了75个基点，达到3.75%至4.75%的增长范围。"
> — John David Rainey, CFO, Expectation / Guide · Q2 FY2026

### 3. Advertising Growth

沃尔玛的全球广告业务（包括Visio）增长了近50%，美国沃尔玛互联（不包括VIZIO）增长了30%以上。

> "活跃客户和频率的安装增长，以及电子商务的强劲增长，我们的全球广告业务（包括Visio）增长了近50%。美国沃尔玛互联（不包括VIZIO）增长了30%以上。"
> — John David Rainey, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 4. Walmart Us Ecommerce Growth

沃尔玛美国电子商务销售额增长了26%，高于我们前四个季度实现的20%出头的增长范围。

> "沃尔玛美国电子商务销售额增长了26%。高于我们前四个季度实现的20%出头的增长范围。"
> — John David Rainey, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026

### 5. Ecommerce Growth

在强劲的客户需求的推动下，沃尔玛的电子商务销售额同比增长了25%。

> "电子商务是一个重要的贡献者。在客户对便捷快速的交付的持续强劲需求的推动下，销售额同比增长了25%，订单量在我们的各个部门都有所增长。"
> — John David Rainey, CFO, Investor Focus · Q2 FY2026


## MoonshotScore 支柱

| 支柱 | 得分 | 水平 | 证据 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 营收增长 | 8.0 | strong | Q4 vs Q1: 快速增长 (+%15.1) |
| 毛利率 | 2.0 | weak | Q4: 低毛利率 (%24.7，资本密集型或大宗商品) |
| 经营杠杆 | 0.0 | weak | 营业利润率疲弱 (%4.6，承压) |
| 现金流储备 | 7.0 | strong | FCF 为正但被吞噬 ($6.1B 对比 $8.0B CapEx) |
| 研发投入强度 | 3.0 | weak | 低研发投资 (%0.0，创新薄弱) |
| 价格动能 | 7.0 | strong | RSI 60.9 动能积极，50日均线 之上 |
| 新闻情绪 | 9.0 | strong | 强烈买入共识 (91%) |

**公式:** sum(pillar.score) / (count * 10) * 100. Each pillar deterministic from FMP. Source maps in pillar.formula.

## Council (7视角)

| 名称 | 立场 | 背景 |
|---|---|---|
| Ray Dalio | bull | 宏观 · 目标上涨空间 +4.9% |
| Ken Griffin | bull | 资金流 · 50日均线 之上 |
| Jim Simons | neutral | 量化 · RSI 61 |
| Klarman | neutral | 价值 · 目标上涨空间 +4.9% |
| Buffett | bull | 质量 · ROE 评分 5/5 |
| Munger | neutral | 估值 · 目标上涨空间 +4.9% |

**公式:** Each lens uses deterministic rule on bundle data. Logged in member.contextTr.

## 芒格视角

- **结论:** 合理估值
- **财务健康:** Moderate
- **安全边际:** Weak
- **利息覆盖率:** Adequate
- **ROIC vs WACC:** Healthy

**公式:** verdict=upside>25?Undervalued:>0?Fairly Valued:Overvalued. Each lens deterministic from FMP ratings + priceTarget.

## 技术水平

- **RSI(14):** 60.9 — yükselişte nötr — overbought sınırının altında, momentum pozitif
- **50日均线:** $126 — hisse %4.7 üstünde — kısa vadeli destek
- **200日均线:** $112 — hisse %17.1 üstünde — uzun vadeli destek
- **成交量 (10日):** -37%

## 历史表现 (4个季度)

| 季度 | 实际 EPS | 预期 EPS | 结果 | 反应 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 | $0.61 | $0.57 | BEAT | +2.0% |
| Q2 FY26 | $0.68 | $0.73 | MISS | -1.2% |
| Q3 FY26 | $0.62 | $0.60 | BEAT | -1.7% |
| Q4 FY26 | $0.74 | $0.73 | +1.8% EPS | -1.5% |

Q2 (2025年8月21日): EPS $0.74 vs 预期 $0.73<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出 +%1.8。D+1 走势：-1.5%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP D+1">[FMP D+1]</sup>。尽管超出预期，但股价下跌 — 市场对指引而非数据做出反应。

## 3种情景

### 情景 A · 超预期
**Q4 EPS > $0.65 + 资本支出纪律**

阈值：EPS > $0.65<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>。

目标：突破中位数目标价 $138<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP target]</sup>；高目标价 $150<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.high">[FMP]</sup> 为上限。

### 情景 B · 符合预期
**EPS ≈ $0.65 + CapEx < $8.0B**

阈值：EPS ≈ $0.65<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est]</sup>，Q4 资本支出 < $8.0B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel">[FMP]</sup>。

目标：在当前价 $132<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:quote" data-field="quote.price">[FMP]</sup> 与中位数目标价 $138<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:price-target-consensus" data-field="priceTarget.median">[FMP]</sup> 区间内盘整。

### 情景 C · 未达预期
**EPS < $0.63 或 CapEx ≥ $8.0B**

阈值：EPS < $0.63<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-estimate" data-field="estimates.next.epsAvg">[FMP est×0.97]</sup>。

目标：当前价 $132 低于 200日均线 $112<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:technical" data-field="technical.sma200">[FMP]</sup>，若持续拒绝，则激活 $96<sup class="cite" data-source="derived" data-field="technical.sma200" data-formula="round(sma200*0.85)">[derived]</sup> 支撑位。

## 风险提示

### {{segment}} 低于阈值
Q2 季度：EPS $0.74 vs 预期 $0.73<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.history.0" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>，超出预期，股价 D+1 -1.5%<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:earnings-history" data-field="earnings.timeline.3.reactionLabel" title="FMP">[FMP]</sup>。

### 对 OpenAI 的依赖
Q2 财报电话会议中未披露 RPO/积压集中度。

### 内幕交易
Form 4 数据已在表格中标记 — 本页面不为此股票生成假设。

| 高管 | 操作 | 金额 | 日期 |
|---|---|---|---|


**净额:** — (0 笔交易 · 0 笔卖出 · 0 笔买入) · Q4 FY26

### 资本支出冲击
Q2 季度资本支出 $8.0B<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:cashflow" data-field="cashflow.qPrev.capexLabel" title="FMP cashflow">[FMP cashflow]</sup>。 Q2 营业利润率 %4.6<sup class="cite" data-source="fmp:income" data-field="income.quarters.0.operatingMargin" title="FMP op margin">[FMP op margin]</sup> — Q4 的这一水平对资本支出修订风险敏感。

## 华尔街共识

- **中位数目标价:** $138 (+4.9% upside vs current $132)
- **高 / 低:** $150 / $120
- **买入 / 持有 / 卖出:** 39 / 3 / 1
- **分析师数量:** 22 (上一季度), 209 历史总数

## 额外财报电话会议洞察

### 1. fy26_sales_growth_guidance

**主张:** Walmart is raising its full-year sales growth guidance for FY26 to a range of 3.75% to 4.75%.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Today, we're raising our full-year sales growth guidance in constant currency by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.75% growth."

**数据:** 75, 3.75%, 4.75%

### 2. ecommerce_growth

**主张:** Walmart's e-commerce sales increased 25% year over year, driven by strong customer demand.

**证据 (会议记录):** "E-commerce was a big contributor. With sales up 25% year over year driven by continued strong demand from customers for convenient and fast delivery, with order volumes increasing across our segments."

**数据:** 25%

### 3. walmart_us_ecommerce_growth

**主张:** Walmart US e-commerce sales grew 26%, stepping up from the low 20% growth range we delivered over the prior four quarters.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Walmart US e-commerce sales grew 26%. Stepping up from the low 20% growth range we delivered over the prior four quarters."

**数据:** 26%, 20%

### 4. advertising_growth

**主张:** Walmart's advertising business globally increased nearly 50% including Visio, and Walmart Connect in the US, ex VIZIO, grew more than 30%.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Install growth in active customers and frequency, With strong growth in e-commerce, our advertising business globally increased nearly 50% including Visio. Walmart Connect in the US, ex VIZIO, grew more than 30%."

**数据:** 50%, 30%

### 5. membership_growth

**主张:** Membership fee income was up over 15% across the enterprise, and Walmart Plus membership income grew double digits.

**证据 (会议记录):** "Membership fee income was up over 15% across the enterprise. In the US, Sam's Club continued to see steady growth in member counts, renewal rates, and increased penetration of Plus members, resulting in 7.6% membership income growth while Walmart Plus membership income grew double digits."

**数据:** 15%, 7.6%

### 6. ai_acceleration

**主张:** Walmart created a new role reporting to the CEO to lead AI acceleration and announced another role reporting to the CTO focused on AI platforms.

**证据 (会议记录):** "It's been years since we made a structural change for a role reporting to the CEO, and we've done it in this case because we're clear on a path to accelerate. We also announced a new role reporting to Suresh Kumar, our chief technology officer, that will focus on AI platforms."

**数据:** —


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*数据来源：FMP (实时查询，2026-05-03)，Q2 FY2026 财报电话会议记录 (由 Gemini 2.0 Flash 翻译成中文)。本工具为教育目的，不构成投资建议。*