The global macro picture is shifting. Energy markets are in focus as UGA and USO both surged 4.74% following news that the U.S. is not planning to tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. President Trump's statement, coupled with rising gasoline prices, has contributed to upward pressure on energy ETFs. The national average for a gallon of unleaded gasoline hit $3.25, marking the highest level in over a year, which is complicating the disinflation narrative. Goldman Sachs estimates a temporary surge to $100 per barrel could increase global inflation by 0.7 percentage points and slow growth by 0.4 percentage points.
Geopolitical tensions are also impacting market sentiment. Trump's willingness to accept assistance from any country regarding the conflict in Iran, and Zelensky's offer of aid, highlight the complex dynamics at play. Meanwhile, the US government is drafting rules to increase its control over Nvidia's global semiconductor sales, according to a Bloomberg report, potentially impacting NVDA which rose 1.66%. This development adds to the uncertainty surrounding global trade and technology. IWM also experienced gains, rising 0.97%.
In other market news, gold prices retreated, falling 1.14% to $5076.20 per ounce, as the precious metal continues to reflect shifting inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. Sector performance was mixed, with the XLI declining 2.97% while the SPY gained 0.71%. The tech-heavy QQQ also saw a positive move, gaining 1.52%.
Macro regimes don't change overnight—but when they do, it matters.