Agilon Health, Inc. (AGL) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Agilon Health, Inc. (AGL) Healthcare & Pipeline Overview

Agilon Health, Inc. delivers healthcare services for seniors via primary care physicians across the United States. The company focuses on Medicare Advantage and fee-for-service beneficiaries, offering a value-based care model within the evolving healthcare landscape. It aims to improve outcomes and reduce costs for its senior patient population.

What Is the Investment Thesis for AGL?

Agilon Health presents a compelling, yet risky, investment case centered on its value-based care model for seniors. The company's focus on Medicare Advantage and fee-for-service beneficiaries positions it to capitalize on the growing demand for senior-focused healthcare solutions. However, with a current market cap of $1.55B and negative profit and gross margins of -6.4% and -2.7% respectively, the company's financial performance raises concerns. Key to Agilon's success will be its ability to scale its operations, improve its financial metrics, and demonstrate the effectiveness of its care model in reducing healthcare costs and improving patient outcomes. The company's low beta of 0.11 suggests relatively low volatility compared to the broader market.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

AGL Key Highlights

Served approximately 238,000 senior members as of December 31, 2021, indicating a substantial patient base.

• Includes 186,300 Medicare Advantage members, highlighting a significant presence in the managed care segment.
• Includes 51,700 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, demonstrating a diversified revenue stream.
• Market capitalization of $1.55B, reflecting the company's current valuation.
• Negative profit margin of -6.4%, indicating challenges in achieving profitability.

Who Are AGL's Competitors?

AGL is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are AGL's Key Strengths?

Established network of primary care physician partners.

• Focus on value-based care.
• Proprietary data analytics capabilities.
• Strong relationships with Medicare Advantage plans.

What Are AGL's Weaknesses?

Negative profit and gross margins.

• Limited geographic presence.
• Dependence on government reimbursement policies.
• Relatively small market capitalization.

What Could Drive AGL Stock Higher?

Expansion into new geographic markets, increasing the company's reach and patient base.

• Continued growth in Medicare Advantage enrollment, driving revenue growth.
• Development and launch of new service offerings, enhancing the company's value proposition.
• Strategic partnerships and acquisitions, expanding the company's capabilities and market share.

What Are the Key Risks for AGL?

Weak fundamentals — a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags soft profitability, leverage or efficiency.

• Regulatory changes and reimbursement pressures, impacting the company's financial performance.
• Increased competition from established healthcare providers, reducing the company's market share.
• Economic downturn and reduced healthcare spending, affecting the company's revenue.
• Cybersecurity risks and data breaches, compromising patient data and damaging the company's reputation.
• Negative profit and gross margins, indicating challenges in achieving profitability.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for AGL?

• Expansion into New Geographic Markets: Agilon Health has the opportunity to expand its presence into new geographic markets, both domestically and potentially internationally. By partnering with primary care physicians in underserved areas, the company can increase its patient base and revenue streams. The market for senior healthcare is growing rapidly, with an estimated market size of $1 trillion annually in the United States alone. Timeline: Ongoing expansion efforts with potential for accelerated growth over the next 3-5 years.
• Increased Penetration of Existing Markets: Agilon can further penetrate its existing markets by deepening its relationships with primary care physicians and attracting more senior members. By demonstrating the value of its care model and providing enhanced support to physicians, the company can increase its market share and improve patient outcomes. The potential market size within existing regions is estimated to be $500 billion. Timeline: Continuous improvement and expansion within current markets over the next 1-3 years.
• Development of New Service Offerings: Agilon has the opportunity to develop new service offerings that cater to the evolving needs of its senior members. This could include telehealth services, chronic disease management programs, and specialized care for specific conditions. The market for telehealth services is projected to reach $175 billion by 2026. Timeline: Gradual rollout of new services over the next 2-4 years.
• Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions: Agilon can pursue strategic partnerships and acquisitions to expand its capabilities and reach. This could include partnering with technology companies, healthcare providers, or other organizations that complement its existing business. The market for healthcare partnerships and acquisitions is highly active, with numerous opportunities available. Timeline: Ongoing evaluation of potential partnerships and acquisitions.
• Leveraging Data and Analytics: Agilon can leverage its data and analytics capabilities to improve patient outcomes, reduce costs, and optimize its operations. By analyzing patient data and identifying trends, the company can develop targeted interventions and personalized care plans. Timeline: Continuous improvement and innovation in data analytics capabilities.

What Are AGL's Competitive Advantages?

• Established network of primary care physician partners.
• Proprietary data analytics and technology platform.
• Focus on value-based care and improved health outcomes.
• Strong relationships with Medicare Advantage plans.

What Does AGL Do?

Agilon Health, Inc., established in 2016 and headquartered in Austin, Texas, is dedicated to transforming healthcare for seniors. The company partners with primary care physicians (PCPs) in various communities throughout the United States, enabling them to deliver comprehensive, value-based care. Agilon's model focuses on improving health outcomes and reducing the overall cost of care for its senior members. As of December 31, 2021, Agilon served approximately 238,000 senior members, including 186,300 Medicare Advantage members and 51,700 Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. Agilon Health operates by aligning incentives between PCPs and the healthcare system, facilitating a shift from a fee-for-service model to one that emphasizes proactive and preventative care. This approach allows physicians to focus on the unique needs of their senior patients, leading to better health management and reduced hospitalizations. The company provides its partner physicians with data analytics, technology, and administrative support to enhance their ability to deliver high-quality care. Agilon Health was formerly known as Agilon Health Topco, Inc., changing its name in March 2021, reflecting its continued growth and evolution in the healthcare sector.

What Products and Services Does AGL Offer?

• Provides healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians.
• Partners with primary care physicians in communities across the United States.
• Serves Medicare Advantage members.
• Serves Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries.
• Offers a value-based care model.
• Focuses on improving health outcomes and reducing healthcare costs.

How Does AGL Make Money?

• Partners with primary care physicians to deliver value-based care.
• Receives payments from Medicare Advantage plans and Medicare fee-for-service programs.
• Provides physicians with data analytics, technology, and administrative support.
• Shares cost savings and improved outcomes with physicians.

What Industry Does AGL Operate In?

Agilon Health operates within the rapidly evolving healthcare industry, specifically targeting the senior care segment. The aging population and increasing prevalence of chronic diseases are driving demand for innovative healthcare solutions that prioritize value-based care. The competitive landscape includes established healthcare providers, managed care organizations, and emerging technology companies. Agilon's success depends on its ability to differentiate itself through its physician partnership model, data-driven insights, and focus on improving health outcomes for seniors. The industry is also subject to regulatory changes and reimbursement policies, which can impact Agilon's financial performance and growth prospects.

Who Are AGL's Key Customers?

• Senior citizens enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans.
• Senior citizens who are Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries.
• Primary care physicians who partner with Agilon Health.
• Healthcare systems and providers seeking to improve care for seniors.

Company Profile

Agilon Health, Inc. operates in the Medical - Care Facilities industry within the Healthcare sector. It is headquartered in Austin, US. The company is led by CEO Ronald Allan Williams. AGL has traded publicly since 2021.

Key Financial Metrics

Return on assets is -24.8%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. Its free cash flow yield is -5.2%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 1.04 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is -25.5%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

AGL Valuation & Market Position

With a $1.55B market cap, Agilon Health, Inc. sits in the small-cap segment of the market. Relative to its peer group, AGL's quantitative score of 30/100 is below the peer average of 77/100.

Quarterly Financial Performance: Agilon Health, Inc.

Revenue for Agilon Health, Inc. came in at $1.49B during Q2 2026, a 5.2% improvement versus the preceding quarter. The company recorded net income of $18.0M, with diluted EPS of $1.04. Quarter-over-quarter revenue has been mixed, typical for a small-cap company operating in Healthcare. Across the four most recent quarters, AGL averaged $-3.85 in diluted EPS.

Agilon Health, Inc.'s Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — flagging fundamental weakness worth scrutiny. Its Altman Z-Score of 2.28 places it in the grey zone, a middle ground that warrants monitoring.

Wall Street analysts project Agilon Health, Inc. revenue of about $5.78B for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $-2.95. The estimate reflects 10 contributing analysts.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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