The global macro picture is shifting as geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions create ripples across markets. In Europe, the premium for aluminium billet has doubled since the onset of the Iran conflict, severely affecting the construction and transport sectors. This has led to increased costs and heightened concerns about supply stability.
Meanwhile, Iran's economic situation is garnering attention, with claims of collapse potentially impacting global oil supply. The prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz could alter oil prices, which would in turn affect U.S. markets. Additionally, the cryptocurrency market remains volatile, with Bitcoin experiencing uncertainty amidst these geopolitical developments.
On a more positive note, consumer sentiment in the U.S. has seen a slight improvement. According to the Conference Board's survey, the headline index rose to 92.8 in April, up from 92.2 in March. This uptick in consumer confidence may signal a potential boost in spending, providing some support to the economy amid broader market challenges.
Macro regimes don't change overnight—but when they do, it matters.