AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) rose 2.63% to $39.79 on Oct. 23, 2026, the day a law firm issued a reminder about a securities class action tied to the stock. The company works in "direct-to-phone" satellite service, but in the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 it reported a net loss of $230.9M and missed analyst estimates for both revenue and earnings. That gap between a big idea and thin current results is the main thing to understand about the stock.
Key facts
- Share price (Oct. 23, 2026): $39.79, up 2.63% on the day. The 52-week range is $36.72 to $133.86. Market cap is $16.25B.
- Q2 FY2026 revenue (quarter ended June 30, 2026): $31.5M, versus $34.5M expected by analysts (a miss of $3.0M, or 8.7%). In the year-ago quarter, revenue was $1.2M.
- Q2 FY2026 diluted EPS: -$0.77 per share, versus an estimate of -$0.315 (a gap of -$0.46). EPS is earnings per share; a negative number means a loss.
- Q2 FY2026 free cash flow: -$694.8M, the cash left after running the business and building satellites. It was the weakest of the last five quarters.
- Next earnings date: Nov. 9, 2026. Analysts expect revenue of $47.5M and EPS of -$0.41972.
- Stock Expert AI MoonshotScore V2: 17.5, rated Weak.
What is the theme? Phones that connect to satellites
Most satellite phone services need special handsets or dishes. The newer "direct-to-device" idea is to let an ordinary smartphone connect to a satellite when it is out of range of cell towers. In general, companies in this space aim to build satellites that can reach regular phones, often working with wireless carriers rather than selling only to consumers.
The appeal is a market of existing phone users, with no new hardware for them to buy. The difficulty is cost. Large satellites are expensive to build and launch, and revenue has to catch up with spending before the money runs out.
What happened
Two things are in the news. First, a law firm, Rosen Law Firm, issued a notice reminding people who bought ASTS securities during a defined class period that a lead-plaintiff deadline is coming up next month. According to the notice, the class period ended in mid-July this year. Lead plaintiff is the investor who leads a group lawsuit. Notices like this are a routine part of securities class actions. They are not a court finding, and they do not say whether the claims have merit. The release gave no details of the allegations, so we do not describe them.
Second, the most recent financial report, filed Aug. 10, 2026, is the best evidence of how the business is doing. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026:
- Revenue was $31.5M, far higher than the year-ago quarter but below the analyst estimate.
- By segment, product revenue was $24.4M and service revenue was $7.1M. We do not have a call transcript, so we cannot say what management said about the drivers or the outlook.
- Operating income was -$297.6M and net income was -$230.9M, compared with a net loss of $99.4M in the year-ago quarter. The loss widened.
- Cash and short-term investments were $2.29B as of June 30, 2026. Total debt was $2.99B, net debt was $705.5M and shareholders' equity was $1.89B.
The last five quarters
| Quarter (ended) | Revenue | Gross margin | Operating margin | Free cash flow | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY2025 (Jun. 30, 2025) | $1.2M | 100.0% | -6297.3% | -$353.6M | | Q3 FY2025 (Sep. 30, 2025) | $14.7M | 62.6% | -540.6% | -$302.9M | | Q4 FY2025 (Dec. 31, 2025) | $54.3M | -68.1% | -133.1% | -$330.7M | | Q1 FY2026 (Mar. 31, 2026) | $14.7M | 24.9% | -1014.0% | -$309.7M | | Q2 FY2026 (Jun. 30, 2026) | $31.5M | 25.2% | -944.1% | -$694.8M |
Gross margin is the share of revenue left after the direct costs of making the product or service. Operating margin is the share left after all operating costs. Revenue is lumpy, with a strong fourth quarter of 2025 followed by a sharp drop. Gross margin has been positive but modest in the last two quarters. Operating margins are deeply negative because spending far outweighs sales.
The cash picture changed most. Capital spending, the money spent on satellites and related assets, was $597.6M in Q2 FY2026, versus $261.6M in Q1 FY2026. Operating cash flow was -$97.2M. The company paid no dividends and did no buybacks.
Why it matters for investors
Valuation is demanding for a business with this much loss. On a trailing 12-month basis, price/sales (market value divided by annual revenue) is 140.91, and the net margin is -536.7%. The P/E is -18.42; a negative P/E just means the company lost money. FMP's discounted cash flow model, which estimates what future cash flows are worth today, produced a value of -$0.54 per share. That is one model's output, and it is hard to apply to a company whose cash flows are still ahead of it.
Peers are different businesses at different stages.
| Company | Market cap | P/E | Net margin | |---|---|---|---| | ASTS | $16.25B | -18.42 | -536.7% | | EchoStar (ECHO) | $14.12B | -4.48 | -38.7% | | Globalstar (GSAT) | $10.69B | -161.01 | -21.3% | | Iridium (IRDM) | $4.71B | 29.02 | 18.1% | | Redwire (RDW) | $2.09B | -5.73 | -57.3% |
Iridium is the only profitable company in this group, with a positive net margin and a P/E that can be read the usual way. ASTS has the deepest loss relative to sales.
Analysts are split. FMP lists eight ratings: three Buy, four Hold and one Sell, for a consensus of "Hold." Price targets average $82.41, with a median of $90.00, a high of $108.00 and a low of $54.00. These are analyst views, not ours. Recent moves point in different directions: B. Riley Securities downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral on Oct. 2, Deutsche Bank upgraded it from Hold to Buy on Oct. 12, and Piper Sandler downgraded it from Overweight to Neutral on Oct. 13.
Looking further out, five analysts expect revenue of $344.0M for the period ending March 30, 2028, within a range of $293.4M to $414.8M, with EPS of -$0.45. Those forecasts assume a large ramp from today's levels.
Our MoonshotScore is 17.5, rated Weak. The sector-relative pillars are growth 32, momentum 19, quality 8, safety 28 and valuation 14. Growth is the strongest pillar, which fits a company whose revenue is rising from a very small base. Quality and valuation are the weakest. Financial-strength scores point the same way: the Piotroski score is 3 on a 0-9 scale (higher means healthier finances), and the Altman Z-score is 2.60 (a common gauge of financial distress risk).
Insiders show mixed signals. Among recent Form 4 filings dated in the last 90 days, FMP shows 3 open-market purchases and 2 sales. The data may be incomplete, and insider trades have many motives.
What could go wrong
- Funding. Cash burn grew while debt is large relative to equity (debt/equity of 1.58). The company may need more capital, which could mean new debt or more shares.
- Execution. Revenue missed estimates, and the quarterly pattern is uneven. In general, a forecast ramp this large leaves little room for delays.
- Legal. The class-action process can bring costs, distraction and headline risk, whatever the outcome.
- Valuation. With such a high price/sales ratio, expectations are already high, and a miss can hit the stock hard. The shares trade near the low end of their 52-week range.
What to watch next
- Nov. 9, 2026 earnings: analysts expect revenue of $47.5M and EPS of -$0.41972 for the next quarter. Compare the results with the $31.5M and -$0.77 from Q2 FY2026.
- Capital spending and free cash flow: does cash burn stay near the Q2 FY2026 level or ease?
- Mix of revenue: is service revenue growing relative to product revenue?
- Funding news: any new debt or share sales, and the cash balance versus the $2.29B reported on June 30, 2026.
- Legal updates: the lead-plaintiff deadline next month and any court filings after it.
Frequently asked questions
Q: What does AST SpaceMobile do?
It is a satellite company working on service meant to connect ordinary smartphones from space. It reports both product revenue (about $24.4M in the quarter ended June 30, 2026) and service revenue (about $7.1M).Q: Is AST SpaceMobile profitable?
No. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, it reported a net loss of $230.9M on revenue of $31.5M, and free cash flow was -$694.8M. Analysts' forecasts for the period ending March 30, 2028 still show a per-share loss of $0.45.Q: What is the class action against ASTS?
A law firm has said a securities class action covers people who bought ASTS securities during a set class period that ended in mid-July this year, and it has noted a lead-plaintiff deadline next month. Such notices do not decide whether the claims are valid. Investors with questions about their own situation should consult a qualified attorney. This article is information, not advice.This is educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.