Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ: FLY) shares were down 9.74% on the latest quote as of Oct. 30, 2026, at 17.935 USD, even though the company's revenue in the quarter ended June 30, 2026 was $117.7M, far above a year earlier and above analyst estimates. The angle for investors: this is a theme watch on space companies that are growing quickly but still burning cash, and Firefly shows both halves of that story. Figures below are current as of Oct. 30, 2026 and cover the quarter ended June 30, 2026 unless stated.
Key facts
- Latest quote, Oct. 30, 2026: FLY traded at 17.935 USD, down 9.74% on the latest quote. The 52-week range is 15.99-62.17 USD. Market cap is $3.00B.
- Aug. 11, 2026 (second-quarter report): Revenue was $117.7M against an analyst estimate of $88.2M, a beat of $29.5M (33.4%).
- Quarter ended June 30, 2026: Operating income was -$95.2M and net income was -$92.3M (a loss). Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were -0.57 in the filing.
- Balance sheet, June 30, 2026: Cash and short-term investments were $635.3M against total debt of $53.4M.
- Next earnings date: Nov. 10, 2026. Analysts expect EPS of -0.52765 and revenue of $102.4M (estimates).
- Insiders: In the last 90 days, the filings we checked show 0 open-market purchases and 0 sales.
Revenue rose 656.9% from the year-ago quarter. Net income moved by -44.8%, which means the loss was larger than a year earlier.
What happened
Firefly builds and launches rockets and also makes spacecraft, including lunar landers. It reported its second quarter on Aug. 11, 2026. Revenue of $117.7M was well above the $88.2M analysts had estimated.
The earnings calendar listed EPS of -0.42 against an estimate of -0.51264, a beat of $0.09 (18.1%). The company's filing shows diluted EPS of -0.57. These come from different data lines, and our data does not say how they differ, so we show both. In both cases the company lost money on every share.
By segment, our data provider lists Launch revenue of $72.4M and Spacecraft Solutions revenue of $137.2M for the quarter. These two figures do not reconcile to the $117.7M total revenue line in our data, so we do not rely on the split to say which business is larger. For the year-ago quarter our data lists a single "Other" figure of $9.6M, which also does not match year-ago revenue of $15.5M, so there is no clean segment comparison.
On Oct. 30, 2026 the stock was down 9.74% on the latest quote. Headlines that day asked why the shares had dropped, but our data contains no company announcement for that date, and we do not know the cause. The fool.com headlines also noted that the stock sits far below its 52-week high, which FMP puts at 62.17 USD. We did not have a transcript of the earnings call or the company release, so we cannot quote management on drivers or guidance.
The five-quarter trend
This table matters because it shows whether growth is turning into better economics, which is the question for any fast-growing, loss-making company.
| Quarter ended | Revenue | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net income | Free cash flow | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | June 30, 2025 | $15.5M | 25.7% | -349.5% | -$63.8M | -$37.3M | | Sept. 30, 2025 | $30.8M | 27.6% | -202.1% | -$133.4M | -$62.0M | | Dec. 31, 2025 | $57.7M | 22.0% | -140.5% | -$41.1M | -$79.3M | | March 31, 2026 | $80.9M | 12.7% | -118.3% | -$96.7M | -$78.9M | | June 30, 2026 | $117.7M | 20.3% | -80.9% | -$92.3M | -$106.3M |
Gross margin is the share of revenue left after the direct cost of delivering the product. Operating margin also subtracts overhead such as research and administration. A negative number means a loss.
Three things stand out:
1. Revenue grew every quarter. It climbed from $15.5M to $117.7M. 2. Operating margin improved every quarter. It moved from -349.5% to -80.9%, so each dollar of sales is costing less overhead than before. Even so, the company still spends more than it earns. 3. Gross margin is uneven. It was 27.6% in the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025, fell to 12.7% in the quarter ended March 31, 2026, and recovered to 20.3% in the latest quarter. The business is not yet showing steady profitability on each launch or spacecraft.
Cash flow is the weak spot. Free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending) was -$106.3M in the latest quarter, the most negative of the five. Operating cash flow was -$81.6M and capital expenditure was -$24.7M. The company paid no dividends or buybacks in the latest quarter.
Why it matters for investors
The theme. Many young space companies went public on the promise of a large market for launch, satellites and lunar missions. The key questions are whether they can turn contracts into revenue and then into cash. Firefly's recent quarters show the first step happening and the second not yet.
Cash cushion. Cash and short-term investments of $635.3M exceed total debt of $53.4M. FMP's stated net debt is -$406.4M, which indicates more cash than debt, though that figure does not reconcile with those two lines. Shareholders' equity was $1.22B. Given the recent cash burn, that cushion buys time but is not unlimited. On financial-health scores, the Piotroski score (a 0-9 checklist of financial strength) is 4, which is middling, and the Altman Z score (a bankruptcy-risk gauge) is 3.23.
Valuation versus peers. On trailing 12-month figures, FLY trades at 10.46 times sales, with a net margin of -126.6%. Because earnings are negative, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is -7.50, which is not a useful comparison on its own. Peers in our data:
| Company | Market cap | P/E | Net margin | |---|---|---|---| | Firefly (FLY) | $3.00B | -7.50 | -126.6% | | Intuitive Machines (LUNR) | $2.17B | -11.36 | -26.7% | | Planet Labs (PL) | $4.58B | -12.25 | -95.1% | | Redwire (RDW) | $2.10B | -5.75 | -57.3% | | Rocket Lab (RKLB) | $32.75B | -197.65 | -21.5% |
Firefly has the widest net loss relative to sales in this group. Rocket Lab has the largest market cap in the group at $32.75B.
Analysts. Of 9 ratings, 7 are buy, 2 are hold, and 0 are sell, giving a consensus of "Buy." The average price target is 37.83 USD, the median is 36.00 USD, the high is 50.00 USD and the low is 25.00 USD. All of these are above the latest quote of 17.935 USD as of Oct. 30. Analyst targets are opinions, not forecasts we endorse. Long-range consensus is thin: for the period ending March 30, 2029, a single analyst sees revenue of $221.3M, and for the period ending June 30, 2029, revenue of $309.0M, with EPS of 0.00 in both. Treat those as rough sketches.
Our MoonshotScore. Stock Expert AI's MoonshotScore V2 for FLY is 18.9, rated Weak. Compared with its sector, the pillars read:
- Growth: 64 (the strongest area, matching the revenue ramp)
- Safety: 58 (helped by the cash and low debt; debt-to-equity is 0.04)
- Momentum: 31 (the share price has been falling)
- Quality: 7 (reflecting heavy losses and negative cash flow)
- Valuation: 9 (the stock looks expensive relative to its sector given the losses)
What could go wrong.
- Cash burn is rising along with revenue, and the company may need to raise money, which can dilute existing shareholders.
- Gross margin has not held steady, so faster sales do not automatically mean healthier economics.
- Space projects can slip or fail, and a single mishap can change a quarter.
- FMP's discounted cash flow model, a mechanical estimate of value from projected cash flows, returns -157.31 USD per share. That is a model output driven by negative cash flows, not a fair value, but it shows how dependent the stock is on future improvement.
- No insiders bought shares in the last 90 days in the filings we checked, so there is no insider signal either way.
What to watch next
- Nov. 10, 2026 earnings: Compare revenue with the $102.4M estimate and EPS with the -0.52765 estimate. The estimate is below last quarter's actual revenue, so the bar is lower than the recent level.
- Gross margin: Does it stay at or above 20.3%, or slip back toward the March 2026 quarter's 12.7%?
- Free cash flow: Does the -$106.3M figure shrink, or keep widening?
- Cash: Whether cash and short-term investments stay near $635.3M, or the company signals new financing.
- Management commentary: Launch schedule, contract timing and spending plans, which we could not review for this piece.
Frequently asked questions
Q: Why did Firefly Aerospace stock drop on Oct. 30, 2026?
FLY was down 9.74% at 17.935 USD on the latest quote as of Oct. 30, 2026, but our data does not contain a company announcement or filing that explains it. Financial media ran stories about the decline that day. The shares are in the lower part of their 52-week range of 15.99-62.17 USD.
Q: Is Firefly Aerospace profitable?
No. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Firefly reported net income of -$92.3M (a loss) on revenue of $117.7M. Its operating margin improved over five quarters to -80.9%, but trailing 12-month net margin was still -126.6%.
Q: How does Firefly's valuation compare with other space stocks?
Firefly trades at 10.46 times trailing sales with a market cap of $3.00B. Among peers, Intuitive Machines has a net margin of -26.7%, Planet Labs -95.1%, Redwire -57.3% and Rocket Lab -21.5%, all narrower losses than Firefly's -126.6%. Analysts' average price target for FLY is 37.83 USD, and our MoonshotScore of 18.9 is rated Weak, mainly because of low quality and valuation pillars.
This is educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.