Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) is due to report third-quarter results on Nov. 9, 2026, and analysts expect EPS of 3.9 on revenue of $9.23B. Its last report, for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, beat on earnings per share but missed on revenue, and quarterly free cash flow was negative. Figures below are current as of the Nov. 6, 2026 quote unless stated otherwise.
Key facts
- Nov. 6, 2026: CEG closed at 249.95 USD, up 4.30% on the latest quote. The 52-week range is 228.63-380.78 USD. Market cap is $88.56B.
- Aug. 6, 2026 (Q2 report): EPS was 2.55 against an analyst estimate of 2.29. Revenue was $7.50B against an estimate of $7.73B.
- Q2 FY2026 (ended June 30, 2026): GAAP diluted EPS was 1.45 versus 2.67 a year earlier. Net income was $513.0M versus $839.0M.
- Q2 FY2026: Operating cash flow was $1.13B, capital spending was $1.25B, and free cash flow was negative $118.0M.
- Nov. 9, 2026: Next earnings date. Estimates are EPS 3.9 and revenue $9.23B.
- Stock Expert AI MoonshotScore V2: 52.1 (Fair).
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 or estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.50B | $6.10B a year earlier; estimate was $7.73B |
| Operating income | $580.0M | $951.0M a year earlier |
| Net income | $513.0M | $839.0M a year earlier |
| Diluted EPS (GAAP) | 1.45 | 2.67 a year earlier |
| Adjusted-basis EPS as reported by FMP | 2.55 | estimate was 2.29 |
The theme: why a nuclear fleet is a power-demand story
Constellation owns and operates power plants, and its nuclear fleet is central to its business. The theme investors are watching is simple. Data centers, which run artificial intelligence and cloud services, use large amounts of electricity around the clock. Nuclear plants run steadily and emit no carbon while generating, which makes them attractive to buyers who need constant power. Companies such as Constellation, Vistra (VST) and NRG Energy (NRG) are often grouped together as ways the market expresses this theme.
The open question is how much of that demand turns into higher, durable profit once plants, contracts and capital spending are accounted for. The most recent quarter gives a mixed answer.
What happened
In the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue was $7.50B, which was higher than the $6.10B in the year-ago quarter but below the analyst estimate of $7.73B. Net income was $513.0M, lower than a year earlier. Operating income was $580.0M, also lower than a year earlier.
The EPS beat (2.55 versus an estimate of 2.29) and the GAAP figure (1.45) differ because they are measured differently. Companies often report an adjusted figure that excludes items such as the timing of hedge gains and losses, while GAAP counts them. FMP's data reports both, so we label each. Read the gap as a sign that accounting items matter a lot for this company in any single quarter.
Our data does not include a company release or call transcript for this period, so we cannot quote management on the drivers. We can describe what the segment data shows. In Q2 FY2026, the company's reporting lines were Power and Power-related Revenues of $4.96B, Capacity Revenues of $396.0M and Other Revenues of $2.15B. Capacity revenue is money paid to keep generation available for the grid. The year-ago data was broken out by region, so the segment lines are not directly comparable. By geography, Mid Atlantic revenue was $1.55B and Midwest was $1.57B in Q2 FY2026. Mid Atlantic was higher than a year earlier, while Other Regions at $964.0M was lower.
The trend: margins swing, free cash flow is under pressure
Margins have moved sharply across the last several quarters:
| Quarter (ended) | Revenue | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net income |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2025 (June 30, 2025) | $6.10B | 22.4% | 15.6% | $839.0M |
| Q3 FY2025 (Sept. 30, 2025) | $6.57B | 22.7% | 16.5% | $930.0M |
| Q4 FY2025 (Dec. 31, 2025) | $6.07B | 16.3% | 9.8% | $432.0M |
| Q1 FY2026 (March 31, 2026) | $11.12B | 28.2% | 21.0% | $1.59B |
| Q2 FY2026 (June 30, 2026) | $7.50B | 17.7% | 7.7% | $513.0M |
What changed: the first quarter of 2026 was unusually strong, and the second quarter gave much of that back, with operating margin at its lowest in this run. Power companies often show uneven quarters because winter and summer demand, prices and hedges vary. That is why a single quarter says little on its own.
Cash flow tells a more cautious story. Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital spending) was $1.46B in Q3 FY2025, then negative in each of the next three quarters: negative $181.0M in Q4 FY2025, negative $850.0M in Q1 FY2026 and negative $118.0M in Q2 FY2026. Capital spending rose from $390.0M in Q3 FY2025 to $1.25B in Q2 FY2026, suggesting heavy investment. In Q2 FY2026 the company also spent $1.97B on buybacks and $154.0M on dividends, after no buybacks in the prior three quarters.
Why it matters for investors
Valuation versus peers. On trailing 12-month figures, CEG's P/E (price relative to earnings) is 24.27. Peers: Exelon (EXC) 17.75, NRG Energy 23.23, Vistra 16.73. CEG's net margin is 11.1%, compared with 10.2% for Exelon, 2.6% for NRG and 13.1% for Vistra. CEG's EV/EBITDA is 14.05, and its price/free cash flow is 286.60, which reflects how small free cash flow has become. The dividend yield is 0.7%.
Balance sheet. As of June 30, 2026, cash and short-term investments were $1.08B against total debt of $24.70B, so net debt was $23.62B. Shareholders' equity was $31.98B and debt/equity is 0.77. The Piotroski score (a 0-9 check of financial health) is 4, and the Altman Z score (a bankruptcy-risk gauge where lower is weaker) is 1.47.
Analysts. Of 23 ratings, 17 are Buy and 6 are Hold, with none at Sell; the consensus is "Buy." The average price target is 341.85 USD (median 343.00, range 296.00 to 380.00 USD), above the 249.95 USD share price. Targets are analyst opinions, not our forecast. Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, CIBC, Barclays and TD Cowen all maintained positive ratings between Oct. 21 and Oct. 30, 2026. FMP's own discounted cash flow model, an estimate of what future cash flows are worth today, gives 148.30 USD per share as of Nov. 8, 2026. That is well below the market price, which shows how sensitive such models are to assumptions about long-term power prices and growth. Analyst estimates for periods ending in 2030 show EPS of 4.63 and 4.26 with wide revenue ranges, so long-range views differ widely.
MoonshotScore. Our MoonshotScore V2 is 52.1 (Fair). Its sector-relative pillars: safety 81 and growth 61 are the strong areas; quality 50 is middling; momentum 21 and valuation 17 are weak. In plain terms, the stock looks steady and growing relative to its sector, but the share price has been weak and the valuation is not cheap relative to peers.
What could go wrong.
- Free cash flow has been negative for three straight quarters while capital spending is high.
- Buybacks in Q2 FY2026 exceeded operating cash flow, and net debt is large relative to cash.
- Earnings are lumpy, and the quarter's revenue missed the estimate.
- The stock sits well below its 52-week high, so the market may already doubt how quickly the demand theme turns into profit.
- No insider open-market purchases or sales appear in the recent Form 4 filings we checked.
What to watch next
- Nov. 9, 2026 results: whether EPS meets the 3.9 estimate and revenue meets the $9.23B estimate.
- Margins: whether operating margin recovers from the 7.7% of Q2 FY2026.
- Free cash flow: whether it turns positive again as capital spending is absorbed.
- Buybacks and debt: whether repurchases continue or the company prioritizes its balance sheet.
- Contracts and demand: any detail from management on supply deals with large power users such as data centers.
Frequently asked questions
Q: When does Constellation Energy report earnings and what do analysts expect?
Constellation Energy (CEG) is scheduled to report on Nov. 9, 2026. Analysts expect EPS of 3.9 and revenue of $9.23B for the third quarter.
Q: Did Constellation Energy beat estimates last quarter?
Partly. For the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, reported EPS was 2.55 against an estimate of 2.29, but revenue of $7.50B was below the estimate of $7.73B. GAAP diluted EPS was 1.45, lower than a year earlier.
Q: Is Constellation Energy generating free cash flow?
Not recently. In the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, operating cash flow was $1.13B, capital spending was $1.25B and free cash flow was negative $118.0M. It was also negative in the prior two quarters, according to FMP data.
What our data could not verify
We had no company release or earnings call transcript, so management's stated reasons for the margin swings, guidance and data center contracts are not covered. Adjusted versus GAAP EPS definitions come from FMP's data and were not checked against filings. Segment lines changed between periods and are not directly comparable.
Sources: Stock Expert AI MoonshotScore V2 (our own data). Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) for prices, financials, estimates, analyst ratings and peers. Third-party headlines (Barron's, 24/7 Wall St.) were used only for context.
This article is information, not investment advice.
This is educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.