Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Consumer Business Overview

Graphic Packaging Holding Company delivers fiber-based packaging solutions across food, beverage, and consumer sectors. Operating through Paperboard Mills, Americas, and Europe segments, it offers diverse products like folding cartons and cups. With a 3.2% profit margin and 4.14% dividend yield, GPK navigates a competitive packaging landscape.

What Is the Investment Thesis for GPK?

Graphic Packaging Holding Company presents a mixed investment thesis. The company's established position in fiber-based packaging and a dividend yield of 4.14% may attract income-focused investors. However, a relatively low profit margin of 3.2% suggests potential challenges in profitability. The company's beta of 0.70 indicates lower volatility compared to the broader market, potentially appealing to risk-averse investors. Growth catalysts include expansion in sustainable packaging solutions and geographic diversification. Potential risks include fluctuations in raw material costs and increased competition from alternative packaging materials. Investors should carefully weigh these factors when considering GPK.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

GPK Key Highlights

Market Cap of $2.78B indicates a mid-sized player in the packaging industry.

• P/E ratio of 14.23 suggests the company may be undervalued compared to its earnings.
• Profit Margin of 3.2% reflects the company's profitability relative to its revenue.
• Gross Margin of 17.0% indicates the company's efficiency in managing production costs.
• Dividend Yield of 4.14% provides a significant income stream for investors.

Who Are GPK's Competitors?

GPK is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance This table mixes two scoring engines — compare a number only with others carrying the same tag.

What Are GPK's Key Strengths?

Diverse product portfolio serving multiple end markets.

• Integrated operations from paperboard production to packaging manufacturing.
• Established relationships with major consumer packaged goods companies.
• Focus on sustainable fiber-based packaging solutions.

What Are GPK's Weaknesses?

Relatively low profit margin compared to some competitors.

• Exposure to fluctuations in raw material costs.
• Dependence on the paperboard market.
• Limited presence in emerging markets compared to global competitors.

What Could Drive GPK Stock Higher?

Expansion of sustainable packaging product lines to meet increasing consumer demand.

• Investments in new technologies to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs.
• Potential acquisitions of smaller packaging companies to expand market share.
• Strengthening relationships with key customers through tailored solutions and value-added services.

What Are the Key Risks for GPK?

Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 1.35 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).

• Fluctuations in raw material costs, particularly for paperboard.
• Increased competition from alternative packaging materials, such as plastics.
• Regulatory changes impacting packaging materials and environmental standards.
• Economic downturns affecting consumer spending and demand for packaged goods.
• Disruptions in the supply chain for raw materials.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for GPK?

• Expansion in Sustainable Packaging: The growing demand for sustainable packaging presents a significant opportunity for Graphic Packaging. As consumer preferences shift towards eco-friendly options, the company can leverage its fiber-based solutions to capture a larger market share. The global sustainable packaging market is projected to reach $440.3 billion by 2030, offering substantial growth potential for GPK. This aligns with increasing regulatory pressure on companies to reduce their environmental impact.
• Geographic Diversification: Expanding into emerging markets, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, offers another avenue for growth. The increasing consumer spending and demand for packaged goods in these regions can drive revenue growth for Graphic Packaging. Establishing a stronger presence in these markets can also reduce the company's reliance on mature markets and diversify its revenue streams. This expansion requires strategic partnerships and investments in local infrastructure.
• Product Innovation: Investing in research and development to create innovative packaging solutions can provide a competitive edge. Developing new barrier technologies, improved designs, and enhanced functionality can attract new customers and retain existing ones. Focusing on solutions that reduce food waste and extend shelf life can also address critical consumer needs. Continuous innovation is essential to stay ahead of evolving market demands and technological advancements.
• Strategic Acquisitions: Pursuing strategic acquisitions of smaller packaging companies can expand Graphic Packaging's product portfolio and geographic reach. Acquiring companies with complementary technologies or market access can accelerate growth and enhance the company's competitive position. Careful due diligence and integration are crucial for successful acquisitions. This strategy can also provide access to new customer segments and distribution channels.
• Enhanced Customer Relationships: Strengthening relationships with key customers through tailored solutions and value-added services can drive long-term growth. Providing customized packaging designs, performance monitoring, and technical support can enhance customer satisfaction and loyalty. Building strong partnerships with consumer packaged goods companies, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice providers can ensure a steady stream of revenue and create opportunities for cross-selling and upselling.

What Are GPK's Competitive Advantages?

• Established relationships with major consumer packaged goods companies.
• Integrated operations across paperboard production and packaging manufacturing.
• Specialized packaging machinery design and manufacturing capabilities.
• Broad product portfolio serving diverse end markets.

What Does GPK Do?

Incorporated in 2007 and headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, Graphic Packaging Holding Company provides fiber-based packaging solutions to a diverse range of consumer-facing industries. The company operates through three primary segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. These segments enable the company to serve the food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products sectors effectively. Graphic Packaging’s product portfolio includes coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS), which are supplied to paperboard packaging converters and brokers. Furthermore, the company produces paperboard packaging products such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers, primarily for consumer packaged goods, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice companies. The company also offers barrier packaging products designed to protect against moisture, temperature variations, grease, oxygen, sunlight, and insects. These solutions are crucial for maintaining product integrity and extending shelf life. Graphic Packaging also designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines used for bottles, cans, and non-beverage consumer products. These machines are installed at customer plants, with the company providing ongoing support, service, and performance monitoring. The company markets its products through sales offices and broker arrangements across the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific regions.

What Products and Services Does GPK Offer?

• Provides coated unbleached kraft (CUK) paperboard.
• Offers coated recycled paperboard (CRB).
• Supplies solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS).
• Manufactures folding cartons for various consumer products.
• Produces cups and lids for the foodservice industry.
• Creates food containers for consumer packaged goods.
• Designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines.
• Installs and supports packaging machines at customer plants.

How Does GPK Make Money?

• Manufactures and sells paperboard to converters and brokers.
• Produces and sells paperboard packaging products to consumer packaged goods companies.
• Designs, manufactures, and installs packaging machinery.
• Provides ongoing support and service for installed machinery.

What Industry Does GPK Operate In?

Graphic Packaging Holding Company operates within the packaging and containers industry, a segment influenced by consumer trends, sustainability concerns, and regulatory changes. The industry is witnessing a shift towards eco-friendly packaging solutions, driven by increasing environmental awareness. Competition is intense, with companies like Silgan Holdings Inc. and Sonoco Products Company vying for market share. Graphic Packaging's focus on fiber-based packaging aligns with the sustainability trend, potentially offering a competitive advantage. The global packaging market is projected to continue growing, driven by rising demand from the food and beverage sectors.

Who Are GPK's Key Customers?

• Consumer packaged goods companies.
• Quick-service restaurants.
• Foodservice companies.
• Paperboard packaging converters.
• Paperboard packaging brokers.

Over the past six months, Graphic Packaging Holding Company insiders filed 16 SEC Form 4 transactions — 2 sales and 14 purchases. On net that is roughly 468K shares acquired (about $348K) — insiders putting money in tends to read as conviction.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reported quarters — more hits than misses. Reported results have landed about 5.2% above estimates on average.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company's Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — a middling fundamental profile. Its Altman Z-Score of 1.35 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.

Return on equity for Graphic Packaging Holding Company stands at 5.9%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 1.7%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. GPK trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 14.23, below the Consumer Cyclical sector average of ~32.70x. Its free cash flow yield is 5.6%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 1.38 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is 5.7%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Valuation Context

Valued at $2.78B, GPK is classified as a mid-cap stock. Analyst price targets span from $9.00 to $13.00, with a consensus of $10.67. At the current price of $9.39, that implies approximately 14% upside potential. Relative to its peer group, GPK's quantitative score of 51/100 is roughly in line with the peer average of 60/100.

GPK Revenue & Earnings Trend

In Q2 FY2026, GPK generated $2.19B in top-line revenue, marking a sequential increase of 1.5%. The company recorded net income of $24.0M, with diluted EPS of $0.08. Revenue has increased across the last three reported quarters, suggesting sustained momentum for this mid-cap Consumer Cyclical company. Across the four most recent quarters, GPK averaged $0.16 in diluted EPS.

Company Profile

Graphic Packaging Holding Company operates in the Packaging & Containers industry within the Consumer Cyclical sector. It is headquartered in Atlanta, US. The company is led by CEO Robbert E. Rietbroek. GPK has traded publicly since 1992.

GPK Financials

GPK Latest News

GPK Analyst Consensus

GPK MoonshotScore

Latest Graphic Packaging Holding Company Analysis

GPK Consumer Cyclical Stock FAQ

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

Official Resources