Keyera Corp. (KEY.TO) Stock Analysis

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• A 9-signal quantitative MoonshotScore built from filings, insider activity, and market data — computed from the numbers, not from opinion.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Keyera Corp. (KEY.TO) Energy Operations & Outlook

Keyera Corp. is a key player in the Canadian midstream energy sector, specializing in natural gas and NGL infrastructure. With a focus on gathering, processing, and marketing, Keyera operates extensive pipelines and processing plants across Alberta, offering essential services to producers and end-users. The company's integrated network and strategic asset base position it as a vital link in the energy value chain.

What Is the Investment Thesis for KEY.TO?

Keyera Corp. presents a compelling investment case based on its strategic infrastructure assets and integrated business model. The company's extensive network of gathering pipelines, processing plants, and storage facilities provides essential services to the energy sector, generating stable and recurring revenue streams. With a current dividend yield of 3.74%, Keyera offers an attractive income opportunity for investors. Growth catalysts include expansion projects in the Liquids Infrastructure segment and increasing demand for NGLs. However, potential risks include commodity price volatility and regulatory changes. The company's P/E ratio of 27.3 suggests a premium valuation, requiring careful consideration of future earnings growth. Keyera's beta of 0.83 indicates lower volatility compared to the broader market.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

KEY.TO Key Highlights

Market capitalization of $13.7B, reflecting its significant presence in the Canadian energy infrastructure sector.

• Dividend yield of 3.74%, offering an attractive income stream for investors.
• Operates approximately 4,400 kilometers of gathering pipelines, showcasing its extensive infrastructure network.
• Profit margin of 2.7%, indicating potential for improvement in operational efficiency.
• Beta of 0.83, suggesting lower volatility compared to the broader market, making it a relatively stable investment.

Who Are KEY.TO's Competitors?

KEY.TO is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are KEY.TO's Key Strengths?

Extensive infrastructure network.

• Strategic asset locations in key energy regions.
• Integrated business model with diverse service offerings.
• Long-term contracts providing stable revenue streams.

What Are KEY.TO's Weaknesses?

Exposure to commodity price volatility.

• Dependence on the Canadian energy sector.
• Profit margin could be improved.
• High P/E ratio suggests premium valuation.

What Could Drive KEY.TO Stock Higher?

Completion of expansion projects in the Liquids Infrastructure segment, increasing processing and storage capacity.

• Increasing demand for NGLs, driven by petrochemical production and exports.
• Stable revenue streams from long-term contracts with producers and end-users.

What Are the Key Risks for KEY.TO?

Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 1.10 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).

• Inconsistent delivery — missed Wall Street EPS estimates in 5 of the last 8 reported quarters.
• Rich valuation — a P/E of 27.3 runs well above the Energy sector’s ~19x, leaving little room for a miss.
• Commodity price volatility impacting revenue and profitability.
• Regulatory changes affecting pipeline development and operations.
• Environmental concerns and opposition to fossil fuel infrastructure.
• Economic downturns reducing energy demand.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for KEY.TO?

• Expansion of Liquids Infrastructure: Keyera has opportunities to expand its liquids infrastructure network, including storage caverns, fractionation facilities, and pipelines. The increasing demand for NGLs, driven by petrochemical production and exports, supports this growth. Investing in new infrastructure and expanding existing facilities can increase Keyera's processing and storage capacity, generating higher revenue and improving profitability. The market for NGLs is projected to grow by 5% annually over the next five years, presenting a significant opportunity for Keyera.
• Strategic Acquisitions: Keyera can pursue strategic acquisitions of complementary assets or businesses to expand its geographic footprint and service offerings. Acquiring smaller midstream companies or infrastructure assets can provide Keyera with access to new markets and customers. This strategy can also enhance Keyera's competitive position and create synergies through operational efficiencies. The company could target acquisitions in regions with growing energy production, such as the Montney and Duvernay formations.
• Increased Marketing Activities: Keyera can expand its marketing activities for propane, butane, condensate, and iso-octane. By increasing its marketing reach and developing new customer relationships, Keyera can capture a larger share of the market for these products. This strategy can also improve Keyera's profitability by optimizing its product mix and pricing strategies. The demand for propane and butane is expected to increase, driven by growing demand from the petrochemical and residential heating sectors.
• Technological Advancements: Investing in new technologies to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs can drive growth. Implementing advanced automation systems, data analytics, and predictive maintenance technologies can optimize Keyera's operations and improve its profitability. These technologies can also enhance safety and reduce environmental impact. The company can also explore opportunities to integrate renewable energy sources into its operations to reduce its carbon footprint.
• Development of New Services: Keyera can develop new services to meet the evolving needs of its customers. This could include providing carbon capture and storage (CCS) services, developing new NGL blending solutions, or offering customized transportation and logistics services. By diversifying its service offerings, Keyera can attract new customers and generate additional revenue streams. The demand for CCS services is expected to grow as companies seek to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

What Are KEY.TO's Competitive Advantages?

• Extensive infrastructure network: Keyera's vast network of pipelines, processing plants, and storage facilities creates a significant barrier to entry for competitors.
• Strategic asset locations: Keyera's assets are strategically located in the heart of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, providing access to key energy resources.
• Long-term contracts: Keyera's long-term contracts with producers and end-users provide stable and recurring revenue streams.
• Integrated business model: Keyera's integrated business model, encompassing gathering, processing, storage, transportation, and marketing, provides a competitive advantage.

What Does KEY.TO Do?

Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Keyera Corp. has evolved into a significant energy infrastructure company in Canada. Originally known as Keyera Facilities Income Fund, the company transitioned to Keyera Corp. in 2011. Keyera operates through three primary segments: Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing. The Gathering and Processing segment focuses on collecting and processing raw natural gas, removing impurities, and separating valuable components like NGLs. This segment boasts approximately 4,400 kilometers of gathering pipelines and interests in 12 active gas plants within Alberta. The Liquids Infrastructure segment provides crucial services such as gathering, processing, fractionation, storage, transportation, blending, and terminalling for NGLs and crude oil. Their extensive network includes underground NGL storage caverns, above-ground storage tanks, fractionation and de-ethanization facilities, pipelines, and rail and truck terminals. The Marketing segment is involved in the marketing of propane, butane, condensate, and iso-octane, along with liquids blending activities. Keyera's Alberta EnviroFuels facility also contributes to its diverse operations. The company's integrated infrastructure and strategic location in the heart of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin make it a critical player in the energy value chain.

What Products and Services Does KEY.TO Offer?

• Gathers and processes raw natural gas from various sources.
• Removes waste products and separates economic components from natural gas.
• Provides condensate handling services.
• Offers gathering, processing, fractionation, storage, and transportation services for NGLs and crude oil.
• Operates underground NGL storage caverns and above-ground storage tanks.
• Markets propane, butane, condensate, and iso-octane.
• Engages in liquids blending activities.
• Produces iso-octane at the Alberta EnviroFuels facility.

How Does KEY.TO Make Money?

• Generates revenue through fees for gathering, processing, and fractionation services.
• Earns revenue from the storage and transportation of NGLs and crude oil.
• Profits from the marketing and sale of propane, butane, condensate, and iso-octane.
• Operates under long-term contracts with producers and end-users, providing stable revenue streams.

What Industry Does KEY.TO Operate In?

Keyera Corp. operates within the midstream sector of the oil and gas industry, which involves the transportation, processing, and storage of hydrocarbons. The midstream sector is crucial for connecting upstream production with downstream refining and distribution. The Canadian midstream market is characterized by its vast network of pipelines and processing facilities, primarily concentrated in Alberta. Key competitors include companies like Pembina Pipeline Corp. (PPL.TO) and Enbridge Inc. (ENB.TO). The industry is influenced by factors such as commodity prices, regulatory policies, and infrastructure development. The demand for NGLs is expected to grow, driven by increasing petrochemical production and exports.

Who Are KEY.TO's Key Customers?

• Natural gas producers who require gathering and processing services.
• NGL producers who need fractionation, storage, and transportation solutions.
• Refineries and petrochemical companies that purchase NGLs and crude oil.
• Wholesalers and retailers of propane, butane, and other refined products.

Wall Street analysts project Keyera Corp. revenue of about $7.90B for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $1.63. The estimate reflects 5 contributing analysts.

Keyera Corp. has missed Wall Street's EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reported quarters — a mixed record worth weighing. Reported results have landed about 32.1% below estimates on average.

Keyera Corp.'s Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — a middling fundamental profile. Its Altman Z-Score of 1.10 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.

Return on equity for Keyera Corp. stands at 6.6%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 1.4%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. KEY.TO trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 27.31, above the Energy sector average of ~19x. Its free cash flow yield is 4.3%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 1.60 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is 1.4%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

Keyera Corp. (KEY.TO) Valuation Context

Valued at $13.7B, KEY.TO is classified as a large-cap stock. Relative to its peer group, KEY.TO's quantitative score of 49/100 is below the peer average of 62/100.

KEY.TO Revenue & Earnings Trend

In Q2 2026, KEY.TO generated $2.23B in top-line revenue, marking a sequential increase of 45.8%. The company recorded net income of $307.9M, with diluted EPS of $1.19. Quarter-over-quarter revenue has been mixed, typical for a large-cap company operating in Energy. Across the four most recent quarters, KEY.TO averaged $0.35 in diluted EPS.

Company Profile

Keyera Corp. operates in the Oil & Gas Midstream industry within the Energy sector. It is headquartered in Calgary, CA. The company is led by CEO C. Dean Setoguchi. KEY.TO has traded publicly since 2003.

KEY.TO Financials

KEY.TO Latest News

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KEY.TO Analyst Consensus

KEY.TO MoonshotScore

KEY.TO Energy Stock FAQ

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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