Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Analysis by Sedat ANAK, Founder & Editor-in-Chief | AI-powered analysis. Data sourced from SEC filings and institutional-grade financial providers. Editorially reviewed. Not financial advice.
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) trades at $79.76 with AI Score 28/100 (Grade F). Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. Market cap: $31.65B, Sector: Healthcare.
Price live · AI analysis from May 9, 2026MRNA stock analysis for 2026: Analysts have set a consensus price target of $35.29 for Moderna, Inc., suggesting 55.8% downside from the current price of $79.76. The AI MoonshotScore is 28/100, indicating a bearish outlook. Key factors: analyst coverage, AI-driven quantitative scoring.
MRNA: 2/2 perspectives are bearish.
How is this calculated? →Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Healthcare & Pipeline Overview
Moderna, Inc. pioneers mRNA therapeutics and vaccines, targeting infectious diseases, oncology, and rare conditions. With strategic alliances and a diverse pipeline, the company navigates a competitive landscape, leveraging its mRNA platform for innovation in the biotechnology sector, despite current negative profitability.
What Is the Investment Thesis for MRNA?
Moderna's investment thesis hinges on its mRNA technology platform and its potential to revolutionize vaccine development and therapeutics. The company's success with its COVID-19 vaccine has validated its technology, but its future growth depends on diversifying its pipeline and achieving commercial success in other therapeutic areas. Key value drivers include the development and approval of new mRNA vaccines and therapeutics, particularly in areas like RSV, flu, and cancer. Upcoming data readouts from clinical trials and potential regulatory approvals are key catalysts. However, the company's negative profit margin of -143.6% and gross margin of -13.9% raise concerns about its financial sustainability. Potential risks include clinical trial failures, regulatory hurdles, and competition from established pharmaceutical companies. The company's beta of 1.34 suggests higher volatility compared to the market.
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis
MRNA Key Highlights
- Market capitalization of $31.65B reflects investor valuation of Moderna's mRNA platform and future potential.
- Negative profit margin of -143.6% indicates the company is currently not profitable, largely due to high R&D expenses and fluctuating vaccine demand.
- Gross margin of -13.9% suggests challenges in controlling production costs and pricing pressures.
- Strategic alliances with AstraZeneca, Merck, and Vertex provide access to resources and expertise, de-risking development programs.
- Diverse pipeline targeting infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, and rare diseases offers multiple avenues for growth and revenue generation.
Who Are MRNA's Competitors?
MRNA is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.
| Company | Price | Change | Market Cap | AI Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. | $189.24 | +0.92% | $40.23B | 56 |
| BBIO BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. | $77.19 | +3.58% | $15.12B | — |
| JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $243.47 | +2.51% | $15.29B | 58 |
| EXEL Exelixis, Inc. | $55.85 | +3.50% | $14.04B | 99 |
| MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $528.10 | +2.67% | $12.18B | 31 |
| ANAB AnaptysBio, Inc. | $63.42 | -3.07% | $2.73B | 79 |
| SNDX Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $21.82 | +4.45% | $1.93B | 79 |
| CGEN Compugen Ltd. | $2.28 | +7.04% | $215.58M | 76 |
AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance
What Are MRNA's Key Strengths?
- Pioneering mRNA technology platform.
- Rapid vaccine development capabilities.
- Strategic alliances with major pharmaceutical companies.
- Strong intellectual property portfolio.
What Are MRNA's Weaknesses?
- Negative profit margin and gross margin.
- Reliance on vaccine sales.
- Limited track record in non-vaccine therapeutics.
- High R&D expenses.
What Could Drive MRNA Stock Higher?
- Clinical trial data readouts for RSV and flu vaccines in Q3 2026.
- Potential regulatory approvals for RSV vaccine in the US and Europe by Q4 2026.
- Expansion of mRNA platform into new therapeutic areas, including cancer and autoimmune diseases.
- Strategic partnerships and collaborations to accelerate drug development and commercialization.
What Are the Key Risks for MRNA?
- Negative return on equity (-36.7%) — the business is not currently generating profit on shareholder capital.
- Weak fundamentals — a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 flags soft profitability, leverage or efficiency.
- Insider selling — insiders were net sellers of roughly $3.5M recently.
- Clinical trial failures for key pipeline candidates.
- Regulatory delays or rejection of product approvals.
- Competition from established pharmaceutical companies and other biotechnology firms.
- Fluctuations in vaccine demand and pricing pressures.
- Intellectual property disputes and challenges to patent protection.
What Are the Growth Opportunities for MRNA?
- Expansion into RSV Vaccine Market: Moderna is developing an mRNA-based RSV vaccine targeting older adults. The RSV vaccine market is projected to reach billions of dollars in the coming years, driven by the high prevalence of RSV infections and the lack of effective treatments. Successful development and commercialization of its RSV vaccine could generate significant revenue for Moderna, providing a strong foothold in the respiratory vaccine market. The timeline for potential approval and launch is estimated within the next 1-2 years, pending clinical trial results and regulatory review.
- Advancement of Personalized Cancer Vaccines: Moderna is pioneering personalized cancer vaccines based on mRNA technology. These vaccines are designed to target specific mutations in a patient's tumor, stimulating an immune response against cancer cells. The personalized cancer vaccine market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by advancements in genomics and immunotherapy. Success in this area would position Moderna as a leader in personalized cancer treatment, with potential for high revenue and significant impact on patient outcomes. Clinical trials are ongoing, with potential for initial data readouts in the next 2-3 years.
- Development of mRNA-Based Flu Vaccines: Moderna is developing mRNA-based flu vaccines that offer the potential for improved efficacy and faster development compared to traditional flu vaccines. The flu vaccine market is a large and established market, with annual sales in the billions of dollars. Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine could capture a significant share of this market by offering superior protection and faster response to emerging flu strains. Clinical trials are underway, with potential for commercial launch within the next 3-5 years.
- Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations: Moderna's strategic alliances with companies like AstraZeneca, Merck, and Vertex provide access to resources, expertise, and funding, accelerating the development and commercialization of its mRNA therapeutics and vaccines. These partnerships also de-risk development programs and expand Moderna's reach into new therapeutic areas. Ongoing collaborations with government and non-profit organizations, such as DARPA and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, support research and development efforts in areas of public health concern. These partnerships are ongoing and expected to continue driving innovation and growth.
- Expansion into New Therapeutic Areas: Moderna is expanding its pipeline beyond vaccines into new therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular diseases, autoimmune diseases, and rare diseases. This diversification strategy reduces the company's reliance on vaccines and opens up new opportunities for growth. The market for mRNA therapeutics in these areas is significant, with potential for high revenue and significant impact on patient outcomes. Moderna's mRNA platform provides a competitive advantage in developing novel therapies for these diseases. The timeline for potential product launches varies depending on the specific therapeutic area and development stage.
What Opportunities Does MRNA Have?
- Expansion into RSV, flu, and cancer vaccines.
- Development of personalized cancer vaccines.
- Strategic partnerships and collaborations.
- Expansion into new therapeutic areas.
What Threats Does MRNA Face?
- Clinical trial failures.
- Regulatory hurdles.
- Competition from established pharmaceutical companies.
- Fluctuating vaccine demand.
What Are MRNA's Competitive Advantages?
- Proprietary mRNA Technology Platform: Moderna's mRNA platform enables rapid development and manufacturing of new vaccines and therapeutics, providing a significant competitive advantage.
- Extensive Intellectual Property Portfolio: Moderna has a large portfolio of patents protecting its mRNA technology and products, creating barriers to entry for competitors.
- Strategic Alliances and Collaborations: Moderna's partnerships with leading pharmaceutical companies and research institutions provide access to resources, expertise, and funding.
- First-Mover Advantage: Moderna was one of the first companies to develop and commercialize mRNA vaccines, giving it a head start in the market.
What Does MRNA Do?
Moderna, Inc., founded in 2010 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is a biotechnology company revolutionizing medicine through messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. Initially named Moderna Therapeutics, the company changed its name in August 2018 to reflect its expanding focus. Moderna's core business revolves around discovering, developing, and commercializing mRNA therapeutics and vaccines. Its diverse pipeline addresses a wide range of diseases, including infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases. Moderna's respiratory vaccine portfolio includes vaccines for COVID-19, flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Endemic HCoV, and hMPV+PIV3. The company also develops latent vaccines targeting cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), and varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Public health vaccines for Zika and Nipah are also part of their portfolio. Beyond vaccines, Moderna is developing systemic secreted and cell surface therapeutics, cancer vaccines (personalized cancer, KRAS, checkpoint), intratumoral immuno-oncology products, and localized regenerative, systemic intracellular, and inhaled pulmonary therapeutics. Moderna has established strategic alliances with companies like AstraZeneca PLC, Merck & Co., Inc., and Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, as well as collaborations with government and non-profit organizations like the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. These partnerships support research, development, and commercialization efforts across its therapeutic areas.
What Products and Services Does MRNA Offer?
- Develop and commercialize messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines.
- Target infectious diseases like COVID-19, flu, and RSV with mRNA vaccines.
- Create personalized cancer vaccines tailored to individual patient tumors.
- Develop therapies for rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and autoimmune diseases.
- Utilize strategic alliances with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions.
- Pioneer mRNA technology for rapid vaccine development and manufacturing.
- Conduct clinical trials to evaluate the safety and efficacy of mRNA therapeutics.
How Does MRNA Make Money?
- Develop and patent mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines.
- Generate revenue through product sales, licensing agreements, and collaborations.
- Invest heavily in research and development to expand its pipeline.
- Partner with pharmaceutical companies for manufacturing and distribution.
What Industry Does MRNA Operate In?
Moderna operates in the rapidly evolving biotechnology industry, characterized by intense competition, high R&D costs, and stringent regulatory requirements. The market for mRNA therapeutics and vaccines is projected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand for personalized medicine. Moderna competes with established pharmaceutical companies and other biotechnology firms, including RVMD: Revolution Medicines, Inc., BBIO: BridgeBio Pharma, Inc., JAZZ: Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc, EXEL: Exelixis, Inc., and MDGL: Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. The company's mRNA platform provides a competitive advantage, enabling rapid development and manufacturing of new vaccines and therapeutics. However, Moderna faces challenges in scaling up production, navigating regulatory hurdles, and maintaining its competitive edge.
Who Are MRNA's Key Customers?
- Governments purchasing vaccines for national immunization programs.
- Healthcare providers administering vaccines and therapeutics to patients.
- Pharmaceutical companies partnering for drug development and commercialization.
- Patients receiving mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutics.
Company Profile
Moderna, Inc. operates in the Biotechnology industry within the Healthcare sector. It is headquartered in Cambridge, US. The company is led by CEO Stéphane Bancel. MRNA has traded publicly since 2018.
ROE -37%Key Financial Metrics
Return on equity for Moderna, Inc. stands at -36.7%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is -27.8%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. Its free cash flow yield is -6.6%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 2.41 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is -13.5%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.
MRNA Valuation & Market Position
With a $31.65B market cap, Moderna, Inc. sits in the large-cap segment of the market. Relative to its peer group, MRNA's quantitative score of 28/100 is below the peer average of 61/100.
Quarterly Financial Performance: Moderna, Inc.
Revenue for Moderna, Inc. came in at $389.0M during Q1 2026, a 42.6% contraction versus the preceding quarter. The company recorded a net loss of $1.34B, with diluted EPS of $-3.40. Revenue has contracted over three consecutive quarters, which investors in this large-cap Healthcare stock should monitor closely. Across the four most recent quarters, MRNA averaged $-2.04 in diluted EPS.
F-Score 1/9Financial Health
Moderna, Inc.'s Piotroski F-Score is 1/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — flagging fundamental weakness worth scrutiny. Its Altman Z-Score of 5.02 places it in the safe zone, indicating low near-term bankruptcy risk.
7/8 beatsEarnings Track Record
Moderna, Inc. has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reported quarters — a consistent record of delivering on expectations. Reported results have landed about 33.1% above estimates on average.
FY2026 estForward Outlook
Wall Street analysts project Moderna, Inc. revenue of about $2.09B for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $-8.58. The estimate reflects 17 contributing analysts.
Net sellingInsider Activity
Over the past six months, Moderna, Inc. insiders filed 14 SEC Form 4 transactions — 9 sales and 5 purchases. On net that is roughly 68K shares disposed (about $3.5M), a signal worth weighing alongside the fundamentals.
MRNA Financials
Fundamental Snapshot
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis · FY 2025
Bull Case vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- Recent insider buying indicates confidence from leadership in Moderna's future prospects.
- Community sentiment has shifted positively following promising developments in vaccine updates and new product pipelines.
- Increased media coverage highlighting Moderna's role in mRNA technology advancements has boosted public perception.
- Recent collaborations with major healthcare entities suggest a strengthening market position and potential for expanded revenue streams.
Bear Case
- Concerns over the sustainability of vaccine demand as the pandemic wanes could impact future sales.
- Mixed community views reflect skepticism about Moderna's ability to diversify beyond COVID-19 products.
- Recent regulatory challenges in key markets have raised questions about the speed of new product approvals.
- Market sentiment remains cautious due to potential competition from other biotech firms developing similar technologies.
AI-generated arguments based on insider flow, news sentiment and technicals — not financial advice · March 2026
From the Earnings Call
“With a strong Q1, we are reiterating up to 10% growth in 2026.”
— Stéphane Bancel, CEO
“This performance keeps us on track with our full year objective of approximately $4.2 billion in adjusted cash costs.”
— Stéphane Bancel, CEO
MRNA Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript · 2026-05-01
Recent Quarterly Results
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $389M | -$1.34B | -$3.40 |
| Q4 2025 | $678M | -$826M | -$2.11 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.02B | -$200M | -$0.51 |
| Q2 2025 | $142M | -$825M | -$2.13 |
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis
MRNA Latest News
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MRNA Analyst Consensus
Consensus Rating
Aggregated Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations from Benzinga, Yahoo Finance, and Finnhub for MRNA.
Price Targets
Consensus target: $35.29
MRNA MoonshotScore
What does this score mean?
The MoonshotScore rates MRNA's growth potential on a scale of 0-100 across multiple factors including innovation, market disruption, financial health, and momentum.
Latest News
8 Health Care Stocks Whale Activity In Today’s Session
Rivian Automotive, Tenax Therapeutics, Robinhood And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Thursday
WHO Director-General Ghebreyesus Says He Considers The Cruise Ship-Linked Hantavirus Outbreak To Be Over
Sandisk Leads Seven S&P 500 Stocks That Have Skyrocketed In 2026
Latest Moderna, Inc. Analysis
Related Investment Themes
Leadership: Stéphane Bancel
Chief Executive Officer
Stéphane Bancel has served as Moderna's Chief Executive Officer since 2011. Prior to Moderna, he served as Chief Executive Officer of bioMérieux, a world leader in the field of in vitro diagnostics, from 2006 to 2011. Before bioMérieux, Mr. Bancel served as Managing Director at Eli Lilly France from 2000 to 2006. He holds a Master of Engineering degree from École Centrale Paris, a Master of Science in Chemical Engineering from the University of Minnesota, and an MBA from Harvard Business School.
Track Record: Under Bancel's leadership, Moderna has transformed from a research-stage company to a commercial enterprise, highlighted by the rapid development and deployment of its COVID-19 vaccine. He has overseen the expansion of Moderna's mRNA platform into new therapeutic areas and the establishment of strategic alliances with major pharmaceutical companies. Bancel has also guided the company through significant financial milestones, including its initial public offering.
MRNA Healthcare Stock FAQ
What does Moderna, Inc. do?
Moderna, Inc. is a biotechnology company that focuses on developing and commercializing messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines. The company's mRNA platform enables the rapid development of vaccines and therapies for a wide range of diseases, including infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, and rare diseases. Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine has been a major source of revenue, and the company is now focused on expanding its pipeline and diversifying its revenue streams through new products and partnerships.
What do analysts say about MRNA stock?
Analyst consensus on MRNA stock is mixed, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the company's future growth prospects. While the success of its COVID-19 vaccine has validated its mRNA platform, analysts are cautious about the company's ability to sustain its revenue growth in the long term. Key valuation metrics include price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), price-to-sales ratio (P/S), and enterprise value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA). Growth considerations include the development and approval of new mRNA vaccines and therapeutics, as well as the company's ability to manage its expenses and maintain its competitive edge.
What are the main risks for MRNA?
The main risks for Moderna include clinical trial failures, regulatory hurdles, competition from established pharmaceutical companies, and fluctuations in vaccine demand. Clinical trial failures could delay or prevent the approval of new products, while regulatory hurdles could increase the time and cost of bringing new products to market. Competition from established pharmaceutical companies could erode Moderna's market share, and fluctuations in vaccine demand could impact its revenue and profitability. Additionally, intellectual property disputes and challenges to patent protection pose a risk to Moderna's competitive advantage.
What revenue streams does Moderna, Inc. have in healthcare?
Moderna, Inc.'s primary revenue stream currently comes from the sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax. However, the company is actively working to diversify its revenue streams through the development and commercialization of new mRNA therapeutics and vaccines. Potential future revenue streams include vaccines for RSV, flu, and other infectious diseases, as well as personalized cancer vaccines and therapies for rare diseases. Moderna also generates revenue through strategic alliances and collaborations with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, which provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future product sales.
How does Moderna, Inc. navigate regulatory approval processes?
Moderna, Inc. navigates regulatory approval processes by conducting rigorous clinical trials to demonstrate the safety and efficacy of its mRNA therapeutics and vaccines. The company works closely with regulatory agencies, such as the FDA in the United States and the EMA in Europe, to ensure that its products meet the required standards for approval. Moderna has a strong track record of obtaining regulatory approvals for its products, including its COVID-19 vaccine. The company's regulatory strategy includes submitting comprehensive data packages, responding promptly to agency requests, and maintaining open communication with regulators throughout the approval process.
What are the key factors to evaluate for MRNA?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) holds an AI score of 28/100 (low). Analysts target $35.29 (-56%). Not financial advice.
How frequently does MRNA data refresh on this page?
MRNA prices update in real time during U.S. market hours. Fundamentals refresh after quarterly filings; analyst ratings and AI insights update daily; news is aggregated continuously.
What has driven MRNA's recent stock price performance?
Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) moves on earnings results, analyst revisions, sector rotation, and market sentiment. Notable catalyst: Pioneering mRNA technology platform. See the News tab for the latest drivers. Past performance does not predict future results.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.
Official Resources
Data provided for informational purposes only.
- Information is based on available data as of 2026-05-09 and is subject to change. The biotechnology industry is inherently risky, and future results are uncertain.