YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF)

YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Energy Operations & Outlook

YPF Sociedad Anónima, Argentina's leading integrated energy company, engages in upstream and downstream oil and gas operations. With extensive reserves, refining capacity, and a vast retail network, YPF serves as a key player in the Argentine energy market, navigating fluctuating commodity prices and evolving energy policies.

What Is the Investment Thesis for YPF?

YPF presents a complex investment case. With a market capitalization of $18.13B, YPF operates in a sector vital to Argentina's economy. While the company possesses significant oil and gas reserves and a substantial retail network, its profitability is hampered by a negative profit margin of -1.4%. Growth catalysts include potential increases in production from its oil and gas fields, particularly in the Vaca Muerta shale formation. However, investors must consider the ongoing risks associated with Argentina's economic and political instability, which could significantly impact YPF's operations and financial performance. The company's beta of 0.03 suggests low volatility relative to the market, but this may not fully capture the specific risks associated with operating in Argentina.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

YPF Key Highlights

• YPF has a market capitalization of $18.13B, reflecting its significant presence in the Argentine energy sector.
• The company's gross margin stands at 27.2%, indicating its ability to generate revenue from its operations after accounting for the cost of goods sold.
• YPF operates 1,654 branded service stations, providing a substantial retail distribution network across Argentina.
• The company has interests in 119 oil and gas fields, with approximately 643 million barrels of oil and 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas reserves as of December 31, 2021.
• YPF's beta of 0.03 suggests low volatility compared to the overall market, though specific country risks should be considered.

Who Are YPF's Competitors?

YPF is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are YPF's Key Strengths?

• Large integrated oil and gas company
• Significant oil and gas reserves
• Extensive retail network in Argentina
• Dominant market share in the Argentine energy market

What Are YPF's Weaknesses?

• Negative profit margin
• Exposure to political and economic instability in Argentina
• Dependence on domestic market
• Limited international presence

What Could Drive YPF Stock Higher?

• Development of the Vaca Muerta shale formation, which could significantly increase YPF's oil and gas production.
• Expansion of YPF's retail network, which could increase its market share in the retail fuel market.
• Potential for increased exports of crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products to neighboring countries.
• Government policies supporting domestic energy production, which could benefit YPF.
• Potential for new discoveries of oil and gas reserves, which could increase YPF's asset base.

What Are the Key Risks for YPF?

• Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 1.27 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).
• Rich valuation — a P/E of 71.3 runs well above the Energy sector’s ~17x, leaving little room for a miss.
• Fluctuations in commodity prices, which can impact YPF's revenue and profitability.
• Political and economic instability in Argentina, which can create uncertainty for investors.
• Government regulations and policies that could negatively impact YPF's operations.
• Environmental concerns and regulations that could increase YPF's operating costs.
• Competition from other energy companies, which could reduce YPF's market share.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for YPF?

• Vaca Muerta Shale Development: YPF has a significant opportunity to increase its oil and gas production through the development of the Vaca Muerta shale formation. This vast shale deposit holds substantial reserves of unconventional oil and gas. Increased investment in drilling and infrastructure could significantly boost YPF's production volumes and revenue. The timeline for realizing this growth potential depends on factors such as access to capital, regulatory approvals, and infrastructure development. The market size for shale oil and gas is substantial, with potential for both domestic consumption and export.
• Expansion of Retail Network: YPF can expand its retail network by opening new service stations in underserved areas and upgrading existing facilities. This would allow the company to increase its market share in the retail fuel market and generate additional revenue. The market size for retail fuel in Argentina is significant, driven by the country's large population and transportation needs. The timeline for expanding the retail network depends on factors such as site acquisition, construction costs, and regulatory approvals. This expansion could also include offering electric vehicle charging stations, positioning YPF for future energy trends.
• Increased Refining Capacity: YPF can increase its refining capacity to meet growing demand for petroleum products in Argentina and neighboring countries. This would involve investing in new refineries or expanding existing facilities. The market size for refined petroleum products in the region is substantial, driven by transportation, industrial, and residential needs. The timeline for increasing refining capacity depends on factors such as capital investment, technology upgrades, and environmental regulations. This would allow YPF to reduce reliance on imported refined products.
• Power Generation Expansion: YPF can expand its power generation capacity by investing in new power plants, particularly those powered by natural gas or renewable energy sources. This would allow the company to diversify its revenue streams and contribute to Argentina's energy security. The market size for power generation in Argentina is significant, driven by growing electricity demand from households and businesses. The timeline for expanding power generation capacity depends on factors such as regulatory approvals, financing, and technology selection. This could include investing in solar and wind power projects.
• Export Market Development: YPF can increase its exports of crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products to neighboring countries and international markets. This would allow the company to generate additional revenue and reduce its reliance on the domestic market. The market size for energy exports is substantial, driven by global demand for oil and gas. The timeline for developing export markets depends on factors such as infrastructure development, trade agreements, and geopolitical considerations. This includes developing infrastructure for LNG exports.

What Opportunities Does YPF Have?

• Development of Vaca Muerta shale formation
• Expansion of retail network
• Increased refining capacity
• Export market development

What Threats Does YPF Face?

• Fluctuations in commodity prices
• Government regulations and policies
• Competition from other energy companies
• Environmental concerns and regulations

What Are YPF's Competitive Advantages?

• Integrated Operations: YPF's integrated business model, spanning upstream and downstream activities, provides a competitive advantage.
• Extensive Retail Network: The company's vast network of service stations provides a strong distribution channel for its products.
• Significant Reserves: YPF's substantial oil and gas reserves provide a long-term source of supply.
• Dominant Market Share: YPF holds a leading market share in the Argentine energy market.

What Does YPF Do?

YPF Sociedad Anónima, founded in 1977 and headquartered in Buenos Aires, is Argentina's largest integrated energy company. Its operations span the entire oil and gas value chain, from exploration and production to refining, marketing, and distribution. The company's upstream activities involve the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). As of December 31, 2021, YPF had interests in 119 oil and gas fields, holding approximately 643 million barrels of oil and 2,447 billion cubic feet of gas. YPF's downstream operations include refining crude oil into various petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. It owns and operates three refineries with a combined annual refining capacity of approximately 120 million barrels. The company also has a vast retail distribution network of 1,654 YPF-branded service stations across Argentina. In addition to its core oil and gas business, YPF participates in power generation, operating 21 power generation plants with an aggregate installed capacity of 3,091 megawatts. YPF also produces and markets a range of petrochemicals, LPG, and bio-fuels, further diversifying its energy portfolio.

What Products and Services Does YPF Offer?

• Explores for and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
• Refines crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other petroleum products.
• Markets and distributes petroleum products through a network of service stations.
• Transports crude oil and refined products through pipelines and other infrastructure.
• Participates in power generation, operating power plants with a total capacity of 3,091 megawatts.
• Produces and markets petrochemicals, LPG, and bio-fuels.
• Supplies diesel, fertilizers, lubricants, and other products to the agricultural sector.

How Does YPF Make Money?

• YPF operates as an integrated energy company, generating revenue from both upstream and downstream activities.
• The company earns revenue from the sale of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs produced from its oil and gas fields.
• YPF generates revenue from the sale of refined petroleum products through its retail network and wholesale channels.
• The company also earns revenue from power generation and the sale of petrochemicals, LPG, and bio-fuels.

What Industry Does YPF Operate In?

YPF operates within the oil and gas industry, a sector characterized by fluctuating commodity prices and geopolitical influences. The global energy market is undergoing a transition towards renewable energy sources, but oil and gas remain critical for meeting current energy demands. In Argentina, YPF faces competition from international and domestic energy companies. The company's integrated business model, spanning upstream and downstream activities, provides a competitive advantage in the Argentine market. The future of the industry will likely depend on factors such as technological advancements in exploration and production, government regulations, and the global shift towards cleaner energy sources.

Who Are YPF's Key Customers?

• Individual consumers who purchase gasoline, diesel, and other petroleum products at YPF service stations.
• Businesses that purchase fuel and lubricants for their operations.
• Industrial customers who use petroleum products as raw materials or energy sources.
• Power companies that purchase natural gas for power generation.
• Agricultural producers who purchase diesel, fertilizers, and other products.

Net sellingInsider Activity

Over the past six months, YPF Sociedad Anónima insiders filed 4 SEC Form 4 transactions — 3 sales and 1 purchases. On net that is roughly 16K shares disposed (about $700K), a signal worth weighing alongside the fundamentals.

YPF Valuation & Market Position

With a $18.13B market cap, YPF Sociedad Anónima sits in the large-cap segment of the market. Relative to its peer group, YPF's quantitative score of 42/100 is roughly in line with the peer average of 50/100.

ROE 3%Key Financial Metrics

Return on equity for YPF Sociedad Anónima stands at 3.3%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 0.9%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. YPF trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 71.25, above the Energy sector average of ~17x. Its free cash flow yield is 2.3%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 0.94 means current liabilities exceed short-term assets, a liquidity point worth watching. Its earnings yield is 1.4%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

F-Score 5/9Financial Health

YPF Sociedad Anónima's Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — a middling fundamental profile. Its Altman Z-Score of 1.27 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.

FY2026 estForward Outlook

Wall Street analysts project YPF Sociedad Anónima revenue of about $31.36T for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $8575.22. The estimate reflects 5 contributing analysts.

Company Profile

YPF Sociedad Anónima operates in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry within the Energy sector. It is headquartered in Buenos Aires, AR. The company is led by CEO Horacio Daniel Marin. YPF has traded publicly since 1993.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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