Decoding Musk
Transmission 01SpaceX · Q3 2026 earnings callOct 20, 2026Decoded

Transmission 01 · SpaceX · Q3 2026 earnings call

It's not the chips.It's the power.

On SpaceX's first big call as an AI company, Musk said what slows him down is no longer chips. It's electricity, cooling and the gear that connects them. Here is who sits on each side of that shift, why, and when you'll hear from them next.

BY STOCKEXPERTAI RESEARCH · · CALL HELD

01 // Briefing

The 60-second version

The AI race hit a wall. It isn't chips. It's power.

  1. 01SpaceX now earns more from AI computing than from rockets or Starlink, and it plans to build far more data centers next year.
  2. 02Musk says the limit is no longer chips. It's power, cooling and electrical equipment.
  3. 03He says demand is so strong that SpaceX could rent its computing out several times over, at rising prices.
  4. 04That points attention at four groups: power and cooling, the chips that still matter, rentable AI capacity, and companies facing a new competitor.
02 // Intercepts

What he actually said

Straight from the call. Short, verbatim, in context.

>> Incoming
The power, cooling, electrical equipment, infrastructure is somewhat of a limiting factor.
Elon Musk · SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call
>> Incoming
We could rent out our compute several times over.
Elon Musk · SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call
>> Incoming
We see them renewing at higher dollars per watt, not lower dollars per watt.
Elon Musk · SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call
>> Incoming
At current pricing, new compute deployments are generating a payback of less than a year.
SpaceX management · Q3 2026 earnings call
>> Incoming
I would be surprised if we brought on less than 13 gigawatts of compute by the end of next year.
Elon Musk · SpaceX Q3 2026 earnings call
03 // The circuit

Follow the current

Four nodes, from the power plant to the companies that feel the shock. For each company: what it does, why it sits here, and when it reports next.

NODE 01 · GENERATION · Group 1

Power & cooling: the new bottleneck

// Why this group

A chip does nothing until it is plugged in and kept cool. Musk said power, cooling and electrical gear, not chips, now set how fast SpaceX can build.

// Why now

Every new AI building needs this equipment before it needs a single chip, so demand shows up in these order books first.

01
GEV

GE Vernova

Gas turbines and grid equipment: the power plants and grid hookups new data centers wait for.

Next report Stock page →Earnings preview →
02
SMNEY

Siemens Energy

Turbines, transformers and grid technology. Same job as GE Vernova, based in Europe.

Next report date not announced yetStock page →
03
BE

Bloom Energy

Fuel cells that make power on site, so a data center doesn't sit for years in the grid queue.

Next report date not announced yetStock page →
04
SEI

Solaris Energy Infrastructure

Rents mobile on-site gas power that fills the gap while a grid connection is built.

Next report Stock page →
07
SBGSY

Schneider Electric

Electrical distribution and liquid cooling for data centers, from France.

Next report date not announced yetStock page →
08
FPS

Forgent Power Solutions

Switchgear, transformers and power units built for data centers. Listed in February 2026.

Next report date not announced yetStock page →

NODE 02 · CONVERSION · Group 2

The chips that still matter

// Why this group

SpaceX still buys Nvidia GPUs today; its own chip plant is not expected to make chips in volume before 2028. And newer AI buildings run on higher voltage, which needs a different kind of power chip.

// Why now

As long as SpaceX's own plant is years away, its spending flows to today's chip and memory makers.

04
NVTS

Navitas Semiconductor

Gallium-nitride and silicon-carbide power chips; a named partner on Nvidia's 800-volt design.

Next report Stock page →

NODE 03 · DISTRIBUTION · Group 3

Compute for rent

// Why this group

Musk said SpaceX rents at spot prices instead of locking in long deals, and that renewals are coming in higher. Rental clouds that signed long fixed-price contracts could reprice as those deals roll over.

// Why now

If capacity stays scarce, the price of renting it is the number to follow, and it moves at each contract renewal.

01
CRWV

CoreWeave

The largest GPU-rental cloud. Much of its capacity sits on multi-year contracts.

Next report Stock page →
02
NBIS

Nebius

An AI cloud with European roots, building fast in the US and Europe.

Next report Stock page →
03
IREN

IREN

A former bitcoin miner turning its power sites into AI cloud. Power is its edge; money and execution are its test.

Next report Stock page →

NODE 04 · OVERLOAD · Group 4

Facing a new competitor

// Why this group

Starlink is moving into planes and straight into phones, and AI agents are starting to do work that used to need a software seat.

// Why now

Every airline Starlink signs and every phone it reaches directly is a customer someone else used to serve.

01
VSAT

Viasat

Satellite broadband and in-flight Wi-Fi, a market where Starlink is signing up airlines.

Next report Stock page →
02
SGBAF

SES

A satellite operator competing for the same airline and business customers.

Next report Stock page →
03
ASTS

AST SpaceMobile

Satellite-to-phone service. Starlink now offers that directly, with its own spectrum.

Next report Stock page →
07
MSFT

Microsoft

Sells software per seat. AI agents that do the work could mean fewer seats. This is our reading, not something SpaceX said.

Next report Stock page →Earnings preview →
Stock Expert AICheck the MoonshotScore of any company in this story →Our 0–100 score for 21,000+ U.S. stocks. Free.
04 // Spec sheet

Three ideas, plainly

SPEC 01

What does "payback in under a year" mean?

If a new data center brings in as much in sales as it cost to build within a year, building the next one is a straightforward call. That is why the spending keeps rising. Note that this is sales, not profit, and SpaceX did not share every assumption behind it.

SPEC 02

What is the 800-volt shift?

Today, power is converted many times inside a server rack, and each step wastes energy as heat. The new design converts power once, at higher voltage, and sends it straight to the racks. Fewer steps means less waste, and it needs new power chips that handle high voltage.

SPEC 03

Spot price or long contract: why does it matter?

A long contract locks in today's price for years: safe if prices fall, costly if they rise. Renting at the spot price follows the market. Musk says SpaceX rents at spot, and that prices are going up.

05 // Fault conditions

What could go wrong

The story is strong. These are the places it can break.

FAULT 01

Building it on time

Grid hookups, buildings and equipment all have to arrive together. Musk's timelines have slipped before.

FAULT 02

Paying for it

A build-out this size needs a lot of money. If it comes from new debt or new shares, existing owners can end up with a smaller slice.

FAULT 03

Demand cooling off

If AI demand slows, all this new capacity could lead to price cuts across the rental market.

06 // Signal schedule

When to look

The next report from each company in this story, soonest first. Dates update from our earnings calendar.

  1. GEVGE VernovaGENERATION
  2. MSFTMicrosoftOVERLOAD
  3. TAT&TOVERLOAD
  4. TMUST-MobileOVERLOAD
  5. VRTVertivGENERATION
  6. ONonsemiCONVERSION
  7. ETNEatonGENERATION
  8. NVTSNavitas SemiconductorCONVERSION
  9. SEISolaris Energy InfrastructureGENERATION
  10. IRENIRENDISTRIBUTION
  11. SGBAFSESOVERLOAD
  12. VSATViasatOVERLOAD
  13. ASTSAST SpaceMobileOVERLOAD
  14. CRWVCoreWeaveDISTRIBUTION
  15. NBISNebiusDISTRIBUTION
  16. NVDANvidiaCONVERSION
  17. MUMicronCONVERSION
07 // Meters

What to watch next

Five readings that tell you whether this story is holding up.

  1. 01
    Capacity actually switched onIs SpaceX hitting its own build targets, or slipping on power and equipment?
  2. 02
    The price of renting AI capacityIf renewals stop rising, the under-a-year payback story weakens for SpaceX and the rental clouds.
  3. 03
    Order books at the power and cooling companiesIf the bottleneck really is power, it shows up first in their backlogs and lead times.
  4. 04
    How the rental clouds pay their wayNew debt, borrowing costs and share sales tell you whether lenders believe in the model.
  5. 05
    Starlink's reachNew subscribers, airlines and phone users, read next to the carriers' and satellite operators' own results.
Next transmission

Episode 02: Tesla

Same format: what Musk said, who it touches, and when to look. The series lives at /decoding-musk.