9 analysts' median target is $450[FMP target], stock is $542, -17.0% upside potential. After Q2 +32.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -3.8%.
A- = MoonshotScore 70[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $33.9B[FMP est], EPS $19.19[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +32.8% beat[FMP] but the stock -3.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Mark Murphy promised $6.4B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Mark Murphy capex transcript].
Watchlist
Capex Increase Manufacturing Expansion
capex_increase_manufacturing_expansion
Micron projects a substantial increase in CapEx for fiscal 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by cleanroom facility expansion and HBM/DRAM investments across its global manufacturing footprint.
"We expect fiscal 2026 CapEx to be above $25,000,000,000. From our last earnings call estimate, the majority of the increase is driven by cleanroom facility-related CapEx, of which the largest factor is Tongluo, followed by construction spend increase in our U.S. fab projects. We project our fiscal 2027 CapEx to step up meaningfully to support HBM and DRAM-related investments. We expect construction-related CapEx to increase by over $10,000,000,000 year over year in fiscal 2027 as we build out our global manufacturing sites to address long-term demand opportunities."
- Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026
Q2 Financial Performance Q3 Guidance
q2_financial_performance_q3_guidance
Micron delivered an exceptional fiscal Q2 with record revenue, gross margin, EPS, and free cash flow, and anticipates similarly strong growth for fiscal Q3.
"Micron Technology, Inc. delivered an exceptional fiscal Q2. Quarterly revenue nearly tripled versus one year ago, and revenue for DRAM, NAND, HBM, and each business unit reached new highs. Our fiscal Q3 single-quarter revenue guidance exceeds the full-year revenue for every year in our company's history through fiscal 2024. For fiscal Q3, we anticipate exceptional growth across revenue, gross margin, EPS, and free cash flow."
- Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026
Ai Demand Hbm Leadership
ai_demand_hbm_leadership
AI is fundamentally transforming memory into a strategic asset, creating unprecedented demand, with Micron leading in HBM production and next-generation product development.
"AI has not just increased demand for memory; it has fundamentally recast memory as a defining strategic asset in the AI era. We continue to work with customers on strategic customer agreements, or SCAs... At NVIDIA's GTC, we announced that Micron Technology, Inc. has begun volume shipment of its HBM4 36GB 12-Hi in 2026 and is designed for NVIDIA Vera Rubin. With our HBM4 production ramp and volume shipments underway, we expect to reach mature yields faster than HBM3E. Development of HBM4E, our next-generation HBM product, is well underway and we expect to ramp volume in calendar 2027."
- Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026
Technology Leadership Node Transitions
technology_leadership_node_transitions
Micron is rapidly advancing its industry-leading 1γ DRAM and G9 NAND technologies and plans to increase EUV adoption for future DRAM nodes.
"We are making excellent progress ramping our industry-leading 1γ DRAM and G9 NAND technology nodes. We expect 1γ to become the highest-volume node in Micron Technology, Inc.'s history... We plan to increase EUV adoption at the 1δ DRAM node, utilizing the latest-generation EUV tools."
- Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026
Tight Supply Demand Dram Nand
tight_supply_demand_dram_nand
DRAM and NAND industry bit demand is expected to be constrained by supply in calendar 2026 and beyond, indicating a continued tight market environment.
"We expect both DRAM and NAND industry bit demand in calendar 2026 to be constrained by supply. We continue to expect supply and demand for both DRAM and NAND to remain tight beyond calendar 2026. We expect industry DRAM bit shipments in calendar 2026 to grow in the low-twenties percentage range, slightly above our prior outlook. We expect industry NAND bit shipments in calendar 2026 to grow approximately 20%."
- Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026
Dividend Increase
dividend_increase
The Board's decision to increase the quarterly dividend by 30% reflects strong confidence in Micron's sustained business strength and cash generation capabilities.
"Reflecting confidence in the sustained strength of our business, I am pleased to announce that our Board has approved a 30% increase in our quarterly dividend."
- Sanjay Mehrotra, Chairman, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 3 bearish (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger), 1 neutral (Ray Dalio).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (March 18, 2026): EPS $12.20 vs $9.19 est[FMP], +32.8% beat. D+1 movement: -3.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $12.20 vs $9.19 beat[FMP], stock -3.8% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $6.4B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 67.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $19.19[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $6.4B"[Mark Murphy]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.