Micron Technology, Inc.
MU - NASDAQ - $542.21 ▲ +%4.84
-
Earnings Wed 24 Jun

Micron opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

9 analysts' median target is $450[FMP target], stock is $542, -17.0% upside potential. After Q2 +32.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -3.8%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
SELL Council 2/6 - Moonshot 70

A- = MoonshotScore 70[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $33.9B[FMP est], EPS $19.19[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$19.19 EPS Estimate Last year $3.03 - +905% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q2 EPS +32.8% beat[FMP] but the stock -3.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Mark Murphy promised $6.4B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Mark Murphy capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

33,500,000,000 Expectation / Guide

Fiscal Q3 Guidance

fiscal_q3_guidance

Micron expects fiscal Q3 revenue to be a record $33,500,000,000, plus or minus $750,000,000, gross margin to be approximately 81%, and EPS to be a record $19.15 per share, plus or minus $0.40.

"We expect fiscal Q3 revenue to be a record $33,500,000,000, plus or minus $750,000,000, gross margin to be approximately 81%, and EPS to be a record $19.15 per share, plus or minus $0.40."

- Mark Murphy, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026
2024 Expectation / Guide

Record Revenue Guidance

record_revenue_guidance

Micron's fiscal Q3 single-quarter revenue guidance exceeds the full-year revenue for every year in the company's history through fiscal 2024.

"Our fiscal Q3 single-quarter revenue guidance exceeds the full-year revenue for every year in our company's history through fiscal 2024."

- Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026
25,000,000,000 Risk Indicator

Fiscal 2026 Capex

fiscal_2026_capex

Micron expects fiscal 2026 CapEx to be above $25,000,000,000.

"We expect fiscal 2026 CapEx to be above $25,000,000,000."

- Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026
36 Investor Focus

Hbm4 Volume Shipment

hbm4_volume_shipment

Micron has begun volume shipment of its HBM4 36GB 12-Hi in 2026 and is designed for NVIDIA Vera Rubin.

"At NVIDIA's GTC, we announced that Micron Technology, Inc. has begun volume shipment of its HBM4 36GB 12-Hi in 2026 and is designed for NVIDIA Vera Rubin."

- Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026
2026 Investor Focus

1 Gamma Dram Majority

1-gamma_dram_majority

Micron expects 1γ DRAM to become a majority of its DRAM bit mix by mid-calendar 2026.

"We expect 1γ to become the highest-volume node in Micron Technology, Inc.'s history. Our 1γ node was already the fastest ramp to mature yields, is ramping volumes faster than all prior nodes in our history, and is on track to become a majority of our DRAM bit mix by mid-calendar 2026."

- Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026
2026 Investor Focus

G9 Nand Majority

G9_nand_majority

Micron expects its G9 NAND node to remain on track to constitute a majority of bits by mid-calendar 2026.

"In NAND, our G9 node also remains on track to constitute a majority of bits by mid-calendar 2026."

- Sanjay Mehrotra, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - March 18, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 70 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q2 vs Q3: fast growth (+156.5%)
Gross Margin7.0Q2: very high margin (74.4%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage7.0op margin very strong (67.6%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway7.0FCF positive but absorbed ($5.5B vs $6.4B CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0average R&D (7.6%)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 71.8 overbought, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (87%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 3 bearish (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger), 1 neutral (Ray Dalio).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -17.0%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 72
Klarman value - target upside -17.0%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside -17.0%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
71.8 RSI 71.8 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+27.40 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$426 stock 27.4% above - short-term support
200d MA
$277 stock 95.7% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+6% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$450
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$542
Pre-earnings position
Support
$235
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$235-$450 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Micron beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.91 vs $1.60 est - -1.0%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$3.03 vs $2.86 est - -2.8%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$4.78 vs $3.96 est - +10.2%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$12.20 vs $9.19 est - -3.8%

Q2 (March 18, 2026): EPS $12.20 vs $9.19 est[FMP], +32.8% beat. D+1 movement: -3.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $18.61 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $12.20 vs $9.19 beat[FMP], stock -3.8% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $6.4B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 67.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $19.19 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $19.19[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $450[FMP target]; high target $1000[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $19.19 + CapEx < $6.4B
Threshold: EPS approx $19.19[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $6.4B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $542[FMP] and median $450[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $18.61 or CapEx >= $6.4B
Threshold: EPS < $18.61[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $542 below SMA200 $277[FMP], if rejection continues, $235[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 9 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$450
12-month median target price (-17.0% upside potential)
39
BUY
6
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$235
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$426 - 50-day MA (above, +27.4%)
$277 - 200-day MA (above, +95.7%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - MU Q4 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $19.19[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $6.4B"[Mark Murphy]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jun 24, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jun 25, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Aug 8, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Sep 24, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the MU earnings preview cover?

This MU (MU) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in MU earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.