12 analysts' median target is $255[FMP target], stock is $194, +31.7% upside potential. After Q1 +13.4% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +6.1%.
B = MoonshotScore 56[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $23.0B[FMP est], EPS $2.57[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +13.4% beat[FMP] but the stock +6.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Peter Osvaldik promised $2.6B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Peter Osvaldik capex transcript].
Watchlist
Core Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Increase
core_adjusted_EBITDA_guidance_increase
T-Mobile is also raising its full year core adjusted EBITDA guide, which is now expected to be between $37.1 billion and $37.5 billion, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range.
"We are also raising our full year core adjusted EBITDA guide, which is now expected to be between $37.1 billion and $37.5 billion, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range."
- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Adjusted Free Cash Flow Guidance Increase
adjusted_free_cash_flow_guidance_increase
And we now expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $18.1 billion and $18.7 billion for the full year, also an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range.
"And we now expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $18.1 billion and $18.7 billion for the full year, also an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range."
- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Postpaid Net Account Additions Guidance Increase
postpaid_net_account_additions_guidance_increase
T-Mobile is raising its expectation for total postpaid net account additions to be between 950,000 and 1,050,000 on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business.
"We are raising our expectation for total postpaid net account additions to be between 950,000 and 1,050,000 on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business."
- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Service Revenue Guidance
service_revenue_guidance
T-Mobile continues to expect to deliver full year service revenue of approximately $77 billion, representing 8% growth.
"We continue to expect to deliver full year service revenue of approximately $77 billion, representing 8% growth"
- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Cash Capex Unchanged
cash_capex_unchanged
Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion as we continue to invest to further differentiate the network.
"Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion as we continue to invest to further differentiate the network."
- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Stockholder Return Authorization Increase
stockholder_return_authorization_increase
And finally, last week, we announced we are increasing our 2026 stockholder return authorization by up to $3.6 billion to a total authorization of up to $18.2 billion.
"And finally, last week, we announced we are increasing our 2026 stockholder return authorization by up to $3.6 billion to a total authorization of up to $18.2 billion."
- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $2.28 vs $2.01 est[FMP], +13.4% beat. D+1 movement: +6.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $2.28 vs $2.01 beat[FMP], stock +6.1% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $2.6B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 19.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.57[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $2.6B"[Peter Osvaldik]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This TMUS (TMUS) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.