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T-Mobile US, Inc.
TMUS - NASDAQ - $193.63 (as of ) ▼ -0.29%
-
Earnings Wed 22 Jul
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-07-22 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Q2 FY26 earnings preview — archived, published May 9, 2026

The median of 12 price targets is $255[FMP target], stock is $194, +31.7% vs the analyst consensus median. Q1 FY26 EPS $2.28 vs $2.01 estimate: beat (+13.4%)[FMP earnings]. Stock move on D+1: +6.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds ·
B
Council 4/6 - Historical V1 score 56

B — FMP rating [FMP ratings]. Form 4: unavailable[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Q2 consensus: revenue $23.0B[FMP est], EPS $2.57[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$2.57 EPS Estimate Last year $2.84 - -10% YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 FY26 EPS $2.28 vs $2.01 estimate: beat (+13.4%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +6.1%[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

$37.1 billion Expectation / Guide

Core Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Increase

core_adjusted_EBITDA_guidance_increase

T-Mobile is also raising its full year core adjusted EBITDA guide, which is now expected to be between $37.1 billion and $37.5 billion, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range.

"We are also raising our full year core adjusted EBITDA guide, which is now expected to be between $37.1 billion and $37.5 billion, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range."

- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
$18.1 billion Expectation / Guide

Adjusted Free Cash Flow Guidance Increase

adjusted_free_cash_flow_guidance_increase

And we now expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $18.1 billion and $18.7 billion for the full year, also an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range.

"And we now expect adjusted free cash flow to be between $18.1 billion and $18.7 billion for the full year, also an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range."

- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
950,000 Expectation / Guide

Postpaid Net Account Additions Guidance Increase

postpaid_net_account_additions_guidance_increase

T-Mobile is raising its expectation for total postpaid net account additions to be between 950,000 and 1,050,000 on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business.

"We are raising our expectation for total postpaid net account additions to be between 950,000 and 1,050,000 on the strength of the underlying momentum in the business."

- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
$77 billion Expectation / Guide

Service Revenue Guidance

service_revenue_guidance

T-Mobile continues to expect to deliver full year service revenue of approximately $77 billion, representing 8% growth.

"We continue to expect to deliver full year service revenue of approximately $77 billion, representing 8% growth"

- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
$10 billion Risk Indicator

Cash Capex Unchanged

cash_capex_unchanged

Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion as we continue to invest to further differentiate the network.

"Our expectation for full year 2026 cash CapEx remains unchanged at approximately $10 billion as we continue to invest to further differentiate the network."

- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
$3.6 billion Investor Focus

Stockholder Return Authorization Increase

stockholder_return_authorization_increase

And finally, last week, we announced we are increasing our 2026 stockholder return authorization by up to $3.6 billion to a total authorization of up to $18.2 billion.

"And finally, last week, we announced we are increasing our 2026 stockholder return authorization by up to $3.6 billion to a total authorization of up to $18.2 billion."

- Peter Osvaldik, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +31.7%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 46
Klarman value - target upside +31.7%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +31.7%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
46.2 RSI 46.2 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-4.90 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$204 stock 4.9% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$216 stock 10.2% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-34% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$255
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$194
Pre-earnings position
Support
$183
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$183-$255 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

4 quarters shown.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.84 vs $2.67 est · Next-day price move: +5.8%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.59 vs $2.40 est · Next-day price move: -1.0%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.88 vs $2.05 est · Next-day price move: +2.5%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.28 vs $2.01 est · Next-day price move: +6.1%

Q1 FY26 (April 28, 2026) EPS $2.28 vs $2.01 estimate: beat (+13.4%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +6.1%[FMP D+1].

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.49 (no guidance)

Q1 FY26 EPS $2.28 vs $2.01 estimate: beat (+13.4%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +6.1%[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $2.6B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 19.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q2 EPS > $2.57 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.57[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $255[FMP target]; high target $310[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.57 + CapEx < $2.6B
Threshold: EPS approx $2.57[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $2.6B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $194[FMP] and median $255[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.49 or CapEx >= $2.6B
Threshold: EPS < $2.49[FMP estx0.97].
Current price $194 — below SMA200 $216 [FMP].

Market Outlook

What do analysts say? 12 price targets · 29 ratings

Wall Street Consensus
$255
12-month median target price (+31.7% gap to the analyst consensus median)
25
BUY
4
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$183
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$204 - 50-day MA (below, -4.9%)
$216 - 200-day MA (below, -10.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - TMUS Q2 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q2 EPS threshold $2.57[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $2.6B". Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 22, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 23, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 14, 2026FILING10-Q due within 40–45 days of quarter end (by Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 14, 2026); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~Oct 22, 2026EARNINGSQ3 FY26 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the TMUS Q2 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS) Q2 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in TMUS Q2 FY26 earnings?

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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