Content generated by AI editorial engine. Editorially supervised by Sedat ANAK.
NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - NASDAQ - $198.45 ▼ -%0.56
-
Earnings
Wed 20 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-20 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.
NVIDIA opens the
books on Wednesday evening.
11 analysts' median target is $275[FMP target], stock is $198, +38.6% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +5.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -5.5%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
BUY
Council 5/6
-
Moonshot 81
A- = MoonshotScore 81[multi-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Quick AnswerNVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Q4 consensus: revenue $78.4B[FMP est], EPS $1.76[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$1.76
EPS Estimate
Last year $0.89 - +117% YoY YoY
-
Data Center Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
8
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters
Q2 EPS +5.2% beat[FMP] but the stock -5.5% D+1[FMP D+1].
$7.3 billion
Investor Focus
Networking Revenue Growth
networking_revenue_growth
Networking delivered record revenue of $7.3 billion, and escalating demands of AI compute clusters necessitate high if and low latency networking. This represents a 46% sequential and 98% year-on-year increase with strong demand across Spectrum X Ethernet, InfiniBand, and NVLink.
"Networking delivered record revenue of $7.3 billion, and escalating demands of AI compute clusters necessitate high if and low latency networking. This represents a 46% sequential and 98% year-on-year increase with strong demand across Spectrum X Ethernet, InfiniBand, and NVLink."
- Colette Kress - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025
Data Center Growth
data_center_growth
Data center revenue grew 56% year over year and also grew sequentially despite the $4 billion decline in H20 revenue.
"Data center revenue grew 56% year over year. Data center revenue also grew sequentially despite the $4 billion decline in H20 revenue."
- Colette Kress - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025
Blackwell Platform Growth
blackwell_platform_growth
NVIDIA Corporation's Blackwell platform reached record levels, growing sequentially by 17%.
"NVIDIA Corporation's Blackwell platform reached record levels, growing sequentially by 17%."
- Colette Kress - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025
H20 Shipments China
h20_shipments_china
If geopolitical issues reside, we should ship $2 to $5 billion in H20 revenue in Q3.
"If geopolitical issues reside, we should ship $2 to $5 billion in H20 revenue in Q3."
- Colette Kress - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025
$600 billion
Investor Focus
Ai Infrastructure Spending
ai_infrastructure_spending
This growth is fueled by capital expenditures from the cloud to enterprises, which are on track to invest $600 billion in data center infrastructure and compute this calendar year alone, nearly doubling in two years.
"This growth is fueled by capital expenditures from the cloud to enterprises, which are on track to invest $600 billion in data center infrastructure and compute this calendar year alone, nearly doubling in two years."
- Colette Kress - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
81 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0
Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+54.6%)
Gross Margin7.0
Q4: very high margin (75.0%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage7.0
op margin very strong (65.0%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0
FCF very strong ($34.9B, 27.2x CapEx)
R&D Intensity7.0
balanced R&D investment (8.6%)
Price Momentum7.0
RSI 53.0 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0
strong buy consensus (93%)
Council Score
5 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +38.6%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 53
Klarman value - target upside +38.6%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +38.6%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued
Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
53.0
RSI 53.0 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+6.00
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$187
stock 6.0% above - short-term support
200d MA
$184
stock 7.9% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-15%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$275
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$198
Pre-earnings position
Support
$156
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$156-$275 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
NVIDIA beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.81 vs $0.74 est - +3.2%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$1.05 vs $1.01 est - -0.8%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$1.30 vs $1.26 est - -3.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY26
$1.62 vs $1.54 est - -5.5%
Q2 (August 27, 2025): EPS $1.62 vs $1.54 est[FMP], +5.2% beat. D+1 movement: -5.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $1.71 (no guidance)
Q2: EPS $1.62 vs $1.54 beat[FMP], stock -5.5% D+1[FMP].
"-"
- Colette Kress, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $1.3B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 65.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- Colette Kress, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.76 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.76[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $275[FMP target]; high target $400[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.76 + CapEx < $1.3B
Threshold: EPS approx $1.76[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $1.3B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $198[FMP] and median $275[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.71 or CapEx >= $1.3B
Threshold: EPS < $1.71[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $198 below SMA200 $184[FMP], if rejection continues, $156[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 11 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$275
12-month median target price (+38.6% gap to the analyst consensus median)
Risk Management
$156
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$187 - 50-day MA (above, +6.0%)
$184 - 200-day MA (above, +7.9%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - NVDA Q4 FY26
A-
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.76[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.3B". Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card.
3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage
TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades
Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card. Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
May 20, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 21, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 4, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 20, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the NVDA earnings preview cover?
This NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in NVDA earnings?
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.