NVIDIA Corporation
NVDA - NASDAQ - $198.45 ▼ -%0.56
-
Earnings Wed 20 May

NVIDIA opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

11 analysts' median target is $275[FMP target], stock is $198, +38.6% upside potential. After Q2 +5.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -5.5%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
BUY Council 5/6 - Moonshot 81

A- = MoonshotScore 81[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $78.4B[FMP est], EPS $1.76[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.76 EPS Estimate Last year $0.89 - +117% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q2 EPS +5.2% beat[FMP] but the stock -5.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. Colette Kress promised $1.3B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Colette Kress capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$7.3 billion Investor Focus

Networking Revenue Growth

networking_revenue_growth

Networking delivered record revenue of $7.3 billion, and escalating demands of AI compute clusters necessitate high if and low latency networking. This represents a 46% sequential and 98% year-on-year increase with strong demand across Spectrum X Ethernet, InfiniBand, and NVLink.

"Networking delivered record revenue of $7.3 billion, and escalating demands of AI compute clusters necessitate high if and low latency networking. This represents a 46% sequential and 98% year-on-year increase with strong demand across Spectrum X Ethernet, InfiniBand, and NVLink."

- Colette Kress - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025
%56 Investor Focus

Data Center Growth

data_center_growth

Data center revenue grew 56% year over year and also grew sequentially despite the $4 billion decline in H20 revenue.

"Data center revenue grew 56% year over year. Data center revenue also grew sequentially despite the $4 billion decline in H20 revenue."

- Colette Kress - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025
%17 Investor Focus

Blackwell Platform Growth

blackwell_platform_growth

NVIDIA Corporation's Blackwell platform reached record levels, growing sequentially by 17%.

"NVIDIA Corporation's Blackwell platform reached record levels, growing sequentially by 17%."

- Colette Kress - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025
$2 Risk Indicator

H20 Shipments China

h20_shipments_china

If geopolitical issues reside, we should ship $2 to $5 billion in H20 revenue in Q3.

"If geopolitical issues reside, we should ship $2 to $5 billion in H20 revenue in Q3."

- Colette Kress - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025
$600 billion Investor Focus

Ai Infrastructure Spending

ai_infrastructure_spending

This growth is fueled by capital expenditures from the cloud to enterprises, which are on track to invest $600 billion in data center infrastructure and compute this calendar year alone, nearly doubling in two years.

"This growth is fueled by capital expenditures from the cloud to enterprises, which are on track to invest $600 billion in data center infrastructure and compute this calendar year alone, nearly doubling in two years."

- Colette Kress - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 27, 2025

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 81 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+54.6%)
Gross Margin7.0Q4: very high margin (75.0%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage7.0op margin very strong (65.0%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($34.9B, 27.2x CapEx)
R&D Intensity7.0balanced R&D investment (8.6%)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 53.0 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (93%)
Council Score 5 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +38.6%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 53
Klarman value - target upside +38.6%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +38.6%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
53.0 RSI 53.0 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+6.00 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$187 stock 6.0% above - short-term support
200d MA
$184 stock 7.9% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-15% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$275
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$198
Pre-earnings position
Support
$156
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$156-$275 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

NVIDIA beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.81 vs $0.74 est - +3.2%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$1.05 vs $1.01 est - -0.8%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$1.30 vs $1.26 est - -3.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY26
$1.62 vs $1.54 est - -5.5%

Q2 (August 27, 2025): EPS $1.62 vs $1.54 est[FMP], +5.2% beat. D+1 movement: -5.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.71 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $1.62 vs $1.54 beat[FMP], stock -5.5% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $1.3B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 65.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.76 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.76[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $275[FMP target]; high target $400[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.76 + CapEx < $1.3B
Threshold: EPS approx $1.76[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $1.3B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $198[FMP] and median $275[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.71 or CapEx >= $1.3B
Threshold: EPS < $1.71[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $198 below SMA200 $184[FMP], if rejection continues, $156[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 11 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$275
12-month median target price (+38.6% upside potential)
56
BUY
3
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$156
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$187 - 50-day MA (above, +6.0%)
$184 - 200-day MA (above, +7.9%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - NVDA Q4 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.76[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.3B"[Colette Kress]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 20, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 21, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 4, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 20, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.