17 analysts' median target is $550[FMP target], stock is $414, +32.8% upside potential. After Q2 +5.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -3.9%.
A- = MoonshotScore 64[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/7[7-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $87.6B[FMP est], EPS $4.23[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +5.2% beat[FMP] but the stock -3.9% D+1[FMP D+1]. Amy Hood promised $30.9B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Amy Hood capex transcript].
Watchlist
Copilot Growth
copilot_growth
Microsoft 365 Copilot's daily active users increasing 10x year over year and now have 15 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats.
"Microsoft 365 Copilot also is becoming a true daily habit with daily active users increasing 10x year over year. We saw accelerating seat growth quarter over quarter and now have 15 million paid Microsoft 365 Copilot seats"
- Satya Nadella, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 28, 2026
Microsoft Cloud Revenue
microsoft_cloud_revenue
Microsoft Cloud revenue was $51.5 billion grew 26% in constant currency.
"Microsoft Cloud revenue was $51.5 billion grew 26% in constant currency."
- Amy Hood, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 28, 2026
Fy26 Operating Margins
fy26_operating_margins
MSFT now expects FY '26 operating margins to be up slightly with the strong work delivered in H1 to prioritize investment in key growth areas and the favorable impact from a higher mix of revenue in our Windows OEM and commercial on-prem businesses.
"With the strong work delivered in H1 to prioritize investment in key growth areas and the favorable impact from a higher mix of revenue in our Windows OEM and commercial on-prem businesses we now expect FY '26 operating margins to be up slightly."
- Amy Hood, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 28, 2026
Azure Growth Q3 Guidance
azure_growth_q3_guidance
MSFT expects Azure revenue growth to be between %37-38 in constant currency against the prior year comparable.
"In Azure, we expect Q3 revenue growth to be between 37-38% in constant currency against a prior year comparable that included."
- Amy Hood, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 28, 2026
Commercial Rpo
commercial_rpo
Commercial remaining performance obligation increased to $625 billion, and approximately 45% of our commercial RPO balance is from OpenAI.
"Commercial remaining performance obligation, continues to be reported net of reserves, increased to $625 billion. Approximately 45% of our commercial RPO balance is from OpenAI."
- Amy Hood, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 28, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and R&D Intensity strong.
How is it calculated? ->7 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Englander).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (January 28, 2026): EPS $4.27 vs $4.06 est[FMP], +5.2% beat. D+1 movement: -3.9%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $4.27 vs $4.06 beat[FMP], stock -3.9% D+1[FMP]. Amy Hood Q2 transcript: "In Azure, we expect Q3 revenue growth to be between 37-38% in constant currency against a prior year comparable that included."[Amy Hood].
"In Azure, we expect Q3 revenue growth to be between 37-38% in constant currency against a prior year comparable that included."
- Amy Hood, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 28, 2026
Total committed revenue of $625B announced in Q2 earnings call; 45% (~$281B) of this is tied to a single partner[transcript RPO disclosure].
Q2 CapEx $30.9B[FMP cashflow]. Amy Hood Q2 transcript: "We expect capital expenditures to decrease on a sequential basis due to a normal variability from cloud infrastructure build-outs and the timing of delivery of finance leases."[Amy Hood transcript]. Q2 op margin 46.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"We expect capital expenditures to decrease on a sequential basis due to a normal variability from cloud infrastructure build-outs and the timing of delivery of finance leases."
- Amy Hood, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 28, 2026
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $4.23[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $30.9B"[Amy Hood]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This Microsoft (MSFT) Q3 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.