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Microsoft Corporation
MSFT - NASDAQ - $464.72 ▲ +%3.02
-
Earnings Wed 28 Oct

Microsoft opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

19 analysts' median target is $532[FMP target], stock is $465, +14.4% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q3 +11.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +15.5%.

summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
C
HOLD Council 3/7 - Moonshot 66

C = MoonshotScore 66[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/7[7-lens rule]. Azure guidance reduction from 39% -> 39-40%[Amy Hood Q-prev transcript] and the current Form 4 signal (0 transactions)[FMP Form 4] prevented an A- grade.

Quick Answer

MSFT Q1 consensus: revenue $90.5B[FMP est], EPS $4.64[FMP est]. Amy Hood lowered Azure guidance to 39-40% (previous 39%) in the Q3 earnings call[Amy Hood Q-prev transcript]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$4.64 EPS Estimate Last year $4.13 - +12% YoY YoY
40% Azure Guidance Previous quarter was 39%
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q3 EPS +11.8% beat[FMP] but the stock +15.5% D+1[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

$54.5 billion Risk Indicator

Microsoft Cloud Revenue And Margins

microsoft_cloud_revenue_and_margins

Microsoft Cloud revenue hit $54.5 billion with 29% growth, yet its gross margin percentage decreased due to substantial ongoing investments in AI infrastructure and product usage.

"Microsoft Cloud revenue was $54.5 billion and grew 29% and 25% in constant currency, reflecting strong demand across the Azure platform and our first-party AI applications and services. Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage was slightly better than expected at 66% and down year-over-year due to continued investments in AI, partially offset by the ongoing efficiency gains noted earlier."

- Amy Hood, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$40 billion Risk Indicator

Capex Increase And Constraints

capex_increase_and_constraints

Capital expenditures are expected to rise to over $40 billion in Q4, reflecting continued investment in AI infrastructure, with capacity constraints anticipated to last through 2026.

"We expect CapEx spend to increase to over $40 billion as we continue to bring more capacity online. The sequential increase includes roughly $5 billion from higher component pricing, as well as the impact from finance leases, which add variability given the full value is recorded in the period of lease commencement. Even with these additional investments and continued efforts to bring GPU, CPU, and storage capacity online faster, we expect to remain constrained at least through 2026."

- Amy Hood, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$37 billion Investor Focus

Ai Business Arr Growth

ai_business_arr_growth

Microsoft's AI business has achieved an annual revenue run rate exceeding $37 billion, demonstrating robust growth of 123% year-over-year.

"As Satya shared, our AI business annual revenue run rate surpassed $37 billion this quarter, growing 123% year-over-year."

- Amy Hood, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
250% Investor Focus

M365 Copilot Adoption

m365_copilot_adoption

Microsoft 365 Copilot seat adds surged by 250% year-over-year, now totaling over 20 million paid seats, with major enterprises like Accenture committing to large deployments.

"In knowledge work, it was another record quarter for Microsoft 365 Copilot seat adds, which increased 250% year-over-year, representing our fastest growth since launch. Quarter-over-quarter, we continue to see acceleration and now have over 20 million Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats. The number of customers with over 50,000 seats quadrupled year-over-year, Accenture now has over 740,000 seats, our largest Copilot win to date."

- Satya Nadella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
40% Investor Focus

Azure Q3 Performance And Demand

azure_q3_performance_and_demand

Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 39% in constant currency, surpassing expectations, yet strong customer demand continues to exceed available capacity.

"In Azure and other cloud services, revenue grew 40% and 39% in constant currency against a prior year that included accelerating growth. Results were ahead of expectations as we delivered capacity earlier in the quarter, enabling increased consumption across both AI and non-AI services. Strong customer demand across workloads, customer segments, and geographic regions continues to exceed available capacity."

- Amy Hood, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
June 1st Investor Focus

Github Copilot Pricing Model

github_copilot_pricing_model

GitHub Copilot is shifting to a usage-based pricing model effective June 1st, aiming to align pricing with actual usage and value.

"Just this week, we announced a business model transition in GitHub Copilot that will align pricing with usage and value that takes effect on June 1st of this year."

- Amy Hood, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 3 / 7 Bullish

7 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Englander), 1 bearish (Jim Simons), 3 neutral (Klarman, Buffett, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +14.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 75
Englander multi-strat - Copilot +250% YoY
Klarman value - target upside +14.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +14.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
74.5 RSI 74.5 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+16.40 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$399 stock 16.4% above - short-term support
200d MA
$434 stock 7.2% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+37% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$532
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$465
Pre-earnings position
Support
$369
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$369-$532 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Microsoft beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q1 FY26
$4.13 vs $3.67 est - -2.9%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$4.14 vs $3.90 est - -10.0%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$4.27 vs $4.06 est - -3.9%
BEAT
Q4 FY26
$4.74 vs $4.24 est - +15.5%

Q3 (April 29, 2026): EPS $4.74 vs $4.24 est[FMP], +11.8% beat. D+1 movement: +15.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

Azure below 37%

Q3: EPS $4.74 vs $4.24 beat[FMP], stock +15.5% D+1[FMP]. Amy Hood Q3 transcript: "In Azure and other cloud services, revenue grew 40% and 39% in constant currency against a prior year that included accelerating growth. Results were ahead of expectations as we delivered capacity earlier in the quarter, enabling increased consumption across both AI and non-AI services. Strong customer demand across workloads, customer segments, and geographic regions continues to exceed available capacity."[Amy Hood].

"In Azure and other cloud services, revenue grew 40% and 39% in constant currency against a prior year that included accelerating growth. Results were ahead of expectations as we delivered capacity earlier in the quarter, enabling increased consumption across both AI and non-AI services. Strong customer demand across workloads, customer segments, and geographic regions continues to exceed available capacity."

- Amy Hood, CFO - Q3 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q3 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q3 CapEx $35.8B[FMP cashflow]. Q3 op margin 45.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $4.64 + Azure >= 40%
Threshold: EPS > $4.64[FMP est] and Azure >= 40%[Amy Hood transcript].
Target: Break above median target $532[FMP target]; high target $680[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $4.64 + Azure 39-40%
Threshold: EPS approx $4.64[FMP est], Azure 39-40%, Q1 CapEx < $35.8B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $465[FMP] and median $532[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $4.50 or Azure < 37% or CapEx >= $35.8B
Threshold: EPS < $4.50[FMP estx0.97] or Azure < 37%[Amy Hood guidance lower minus 2].
Target: Current $465 below SMA200 $434[FMP], if rejection continues, $369[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 19 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$532
12-month median target price (+14.4% gap to the analyst consensus median)
55
BUY
3
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$369
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$399 - 50-day MA (above, +16.4%)
$434 - 200-day MA (above, +7.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - MSFT Q1 FY27
C

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $4.64[FMP], Azure guidance 39-40%[Amy Hood], CapEx threshold "below $35.8B". Three anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Oct 28, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 29, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Dec 12, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Jan 28, 2027EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the MSFT Q3 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Q3 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in MSFT Q3 FY26 earnings?

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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