Moderna's experimental cancer vaccine, intismeran, reported positive late-stage melanoma results in the past week, according to news coverage on Oct. 24, 2026. The Wall Street Journal framed the result as the cancer vaccine passing "its first big test." The stock closed at $200.1 on Oct. 23, 2026, above the average analyst price target of $117.40, while the company still loses large sums each quarter.
Key facts
- Share price: $200.1 on Oct. 23, 2026, down 1.25% on the day. The 52-week range is $22.28 to $254.48. Market cap is $79.89B.
- Latest reported quarter: In the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue was $145.0M and net income was a loss of $782.0M. Diluted EPS (earnings per share) was a loss of $1.96.
- Versus estimates: The company reported on July 31, 2026. EPS was -1.97 against an analyst estimate of -2.03. Revenue of $145.0M beat the estimate of $102.9M.
- Cash: At June 30, 2026, Moderna held $5.14B in cash and short-term investments against $1.29B of total debt.
- Next earnings: Nov. 6, 2026. Analysts estimate EPS of -1.11 and revenue of $891.3M.
- Stock Expert AI MoonshotScore: 31.2, rated Weak.
What happened
The theme: cancer vaccines built from a patient's own tumor. Traditional vaccines train the body to recognize a virus. A cancer vaccine of this kind works differently. In general, doctors sequence a patient's tumor, find the mutations that make it look different from healthy tissue, and make a custom mRNA vaccine that teaches the immune system to hunt cells carrying those mutations. mRNA is the same messenger-molecule technology behind Moderna's Covid shot. It is attractive here because a custom dose can in principle be made quickly for each patient.
The development: a late-stage melanoma readout. Moderna's intismeran is being developed as a melanoma therapy. Headlines on Oct. 24, 2026 said the Phase 3 trial (the large final-stage study regulators rely on) showed a meaningful reduction in the risk of the cancer returning. A Seeking Alpha transcript on the same date covered management's discussion of the data and the wider cancer-immunotherapy push. We do not have the full trial data, so details such as the patient population, the treatment regimen, how long patients were followed and how many were treated should come from the company's own disclosures and any medical-meeting presentation.
The caution comes from a Wall Street Journal "Heard on the Street" column the same weekend. Its argument, in short: the vaccine passed its first big test, but the stock is priced as if it will pass every test from here.
The business today. Moderna's revenue is uneven. Over the last several quarters:
| Quarter ended | Revenue | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net income | |---|---|---|---|---| | June 30, 2025 | $142.0M | 16.2% | -638.7% | -$825.0M | | Sept. 30, 2025 | $1.02B | 0.8% | -25.6% | -$200.0M | | Dec. 31, 2025 | $678.0M | 33.3% | -126.4% | -$826.0M | | March 31, 2026 | $389.0M | -145.5% | -356.8% | -$1.34B | | June 30, 2026 | $145.0M | 35.9% | -562.1% | -$782.0M |
Gross margin is the share of sales left after the direct cost of making the product. It was negative in the first quarter of 2026, meaning making and handling the product cost more than it brought in, and it turned positive again in the second quarter. Operating margin remained deeply negative because operating costs far exceeded revenue. The revenue swings are consistent with seasonal vaccine demand, with the third quarter of 2025 the high point in this period.
In the second quarter, revenue was slightly higher than a year earlier and the net loss was smaller. Product sales were the reported revenue segment. The U.S. was the largest geographic market that quarter at $70.0M, followed by Europe at $16.0M and the rest of the world at $8.0M.
Why it matters for investors
Cash burn is the central issue. Free cash flow (cash from operations minus equipment spending) was -$563.0M in the second quarter of 2026 and -$692.0M in the first quarter. The fourth quarter of 2025 was the exception, with free cash flow of $912.0M. Moderna's $5.14B cash pile gives it room, and an Altman Z-score of 11.70 (a bankruptcy-risk gauge where higher is safer) points to low near-term distress. But its Piotroski score, a 0-to-9 measure of financial health, is only 2.
Valuation is demanding. Over the trailing 12 months, Moderna trades at 35.86 times sales and has a net margin of -141.4%, so its negative P/E (price-to-earnings) offers little to compare. For context:
| Company | Market cap | P/E (trailing) | Net margin | |---|---|---|---| | Moderna (MRNA) | $79.89B | -25.08 | -141.4% | | BioNTech (BNTX) | $22.13B | -11.56 | -64.2% | | GSK plc (GSK) | $101.68B | 15.78 | 14.5% | | Arcturus (ARCT) | $279.7M | -2.95 | -391.9% |
BioNTech, the closest mRNA peer, also loses money but with a smaller net loss relative to sales. GSK, an established vaccine maker, is profitable. A negative P/E simply means the company lost money over the period.
Analysts are cautious. Of 29 ratings, 8 are buy, 15 are hold and 6 are sell, for a consensus of "Hold." The average price target is $117.40 and the median is $127.50. The range runs from a low of $25.00 to a high of $245.00, so even the highest target sits above the Oct. 23 price of $200.1 by only a modest margin. Citigroup downgraded the stock from Neutral to Sell on Sept. 30, 2026. TD Cowen, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley kept neutral-type ratings in October. FMP's discounted cash flow model, which estimates value from projected cash flows, gives -1.51 USD per share, a reminder that current cash flows are negative.
Our MoonshotScore reads 31.2 (Weak). The sector-relative pillars show the split clearly:
- Momentum: 100. Price strength is at the top of the scale.
- Safety: 45 and valuation: 43. Middling.
- Growth: 23 and quality: 19. Weak, reflecting uneven revenue and deep losses.
What could go wrong
- Trial results can look different on closer inspection. A headline benefit does not show side effects, how long the benefit lasts, or whether regulators will approve.
- Approval and manufacturing are unproven for a custom product. If each dose is made for an individual patient, as is typical for this kind of therapy, it is harder to scale than a standard vaccine.
- Cash burn continues. Analysts expect losses to persist: the consensus EPS estimate is -1.72 for the period ending March 30, 2027 and -1.92 for the period ending June 30, 2027.
- Price already reflects a lot. With the stock far above the average target, disappointing news could matter more than good news.
What to watch next
- Nov. 6, 2026 earnings. Analysts estimate revenue of $891.3M and EPS of -1.11. Watch whether gross margin stays positive and how much cash the company burned.
- Full melanoma data and regulatory filing plans. Look for follow-up length, safety, and a timeline.
- Revenue for early 2027. The consensus is $264.3M for the period ending March 30, 2027 (range $169.6M to $294.4M), then $120.4M for the period ending June 30, 2027, showing how uneven the base business is.
- Cost and cash guidance. Any change to spending plans will show how long the $5.14B can last.
Frequently asked questions
Q: What did Moderna announce about its cancer vaccine?
According to news coverage on Oct. 24, 2026, intismeran, Moderna's mRNA cancer vaccine, showed a meaningful reduction in the risk of melanoma returning in a Phase 3 trial. Full details were still to come from the company.Q: Is Moderna profitable?
No. In the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, Moderna reported revenue of $145.0M and a net loss of $782.0M. Its trailing net margin is -141.4%. The company holds $5.14B in cash and short-term investments, which funds operations while it develops new products.Q: What do analysts think of Moderna stock?
Analysts are mixed. Of 29 ratings, 8 are buy, 15 are hold and 6 are sell, for a consensus of Hold. Their average price target is $117.40, with targets from $25.00 to $245.00, while the stock closed at $200.1 on Oct. 23, 2026. This is a summary of analyst views, not a recommendation from Stock Expert AI.This is educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.