ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) reported third-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $14.89 on Oct. 14, 2026, well above the $12.47 analysts expected, while revenue of $12.97B came in slightly under the $13.14B estimate. The story is a profit-quality beat: margins widened sharply, yet the share price was $1,542.55 on Oct. 30, 2026, down 7.95% on the latest quote. That leaves a very strong business priced at a level that leaves little room for error.
Figures are current as of Oct. 30, 2026 and cover the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026 (Q3 fiscal 2026). Company financial statements are in euros (EUR); the share price, price targets and the headline earnings-report figures are in US dollars per US-listed share. We do not mix the two.
Key facts
- Oct. 14, 2026: ASML reported EPS of $14.89 versus a $12.47 estimate (a beat of $2.42, or 19.4%). Revenue was $12.97B versus a $13.14B estimate (a miss of $174.9M, or 1.3%).
- Quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026: revenue was EUR 11.66B, up 55.2% from the year-ago quarter. Net income was EUR 4.96B, up 133.5%. Diluted EPS was EUR 12.93.
- Quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026: operating margin was 44.4% and gross margin was 57.4%, both the highest of the last five quarters.
- Quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026: free cash flow was EUR 11.38B, from operating cash flow of EUR 11.80B.
- Oct. 30, 2026: shares were $1,542.55, down 7.95% on the latest quote. The 52-week range is $946.11 to $1,999.96.
- Next earnings: Jan. 27, 2027, with analysts expecting EPS of $16.61 and revenue of $16.34B.
What happened
ASML makes the lithography machines that chipmakers use to print circuits onto silicon. In the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026, sales were much higher than a year earlier, and profit grew faster than sales. Net income more than doubled while revenue rose 55.2%. The data does not say what drove that gap. Operating leverage, where costs rise more slowly than sales so more of each extra euro reaches the bottom line, is one general explanation, but we cannot confirm it here.
The headline numbers look contradictory because the beat and the miss are measured differently. Earnings per share ran well ahead of analyst estimates, but revenue landed a little below. In plain terms, ASML earned more on each euro of sales than analysts expected, not sold more than they expected. Note that the $14.89 EPS in the earnings report is a US-dollar, per-US-share figure, while the EUR 12.93 is the diluted EPS in the company's euro statements. They describe the same quarter in different currencies.
The margin trend shows what changed. The table below shows the last five quarters, because the story here is how abrupt the step up was in the latest one.
| Quarter ended | Revenue (EUR) | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net income (EUR) | |---|---|---|---|---| | Sept. 30, 2025 | 7.52B | 51.6% | 32.8% | 2.12B | | Dec. 31, 2025 | 9.72B | 52.2% | 35.3% | 2.84B | | March 31, 2026 | 8.77B | 53.0% | 36.0% | 2.76B | | June 30, 2026 | 9.33B | 54.0% | 37.1% | 2.92B | | Sept. 30, 2026 | 11.66B | 57.4% | 44.4% | 4.96B |
Gross margin (sales minus the direct cost of making the product, as a share of sales) crept up steadily for four quarters, then rose by a larger step in the latest one. Operating margin followed the same path and moved even more. We did not have a call transcript or company release for this piece, so we cannot say which product lines, customers or pricing effects drove the change. Readers should check ASML's own materials for management's stated drivers.
Cash flow was uneven, and the data does not state why. Free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending) was EUR 11.38B in the latest quarter. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026 it was EUR 1.40B, and in the quarter ended March 31, 2026 it was negative at EUR 2.61B, meaning the company used cash. The quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025 was strong at EUR 10.96B. A single quarter should not be read as a run rate.
ASML returned cash too. In the latest quarter it spent EUR 4.07B on share buybacks and EUR 721.3M on dividends. At Sept. 30, 2026 it held EUR 12.74B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of EUR 1.96B, which means it had more cash than debt (a net cash position). Shareholders' equity was EUR 22.06B.
Why it matters for investors
Quality is high. Two outside-in measures agree. The Piotroski score, a nine-point checklist of financial health, is 9, the maximum. The Altman Z score, a bankruptcy-risk gauge where higher is safer, is 11.15. Debt-to-equity is 0.09.
Our MoonshotScore. Stock Expert AI's MoonshotScore V2 for ASML is 89.3, labeled Exceptional. The sector-relative pillars are quality 94, growth 82, momentum 80, safety 77 and valuation 34. In short, the business scores near the top of its sector on quality and growth, and the weak spot is price.
Valuation is the debate. On a trailing-12-month basis, ASML trades at a price-to-earnings ratio (share price divided by yearly earnings per share) of 40.34, a price-to-sales ratio of 13.79 and an EV/EBITDA of 32.83. Net margin is 34.1% and the dividend yield is 0.6%. Peers look like this:
| Company | Market cap | P/E | Net margin | |---|---|---|---| | ASML Holding | $594.53B | 40.34 | 34.1% | | Applied Materials (AMAT) | $305.33B | 32.97 | 30.1% | | ASM International (ASMXF) | $42.84B | 35.76 | 26.8% | | Camtek (CAMT) | $5.32B | 142.36 | 7.4% | | SCREEN Holdings (DINRF) | $14.17B | 25.06 | 14.5% |
ASML has the highest net margin in this group and a higher P/E than Applied Materials, ASM International and SCREEN, but a lower one than Camtek, a much smaller company.
Analysts remain positive. Of 45 ratings, 1 is strong buy, 25 are buy, 16 are hold, 3 are sell and none are strong sell, for a consensus of "Buy." JP Morgan maintained its Overweight rating on Oct. 15, 2026. The analyst price-target range is $2,100.00 to $2,623.00, with an average of $2,330.75 and a median of $2,300.00. All of those targets sit above the Oct. 30 price of $1,542.55. Targets are analysts' views, not our forecast.
Risks and what could go wrong
- Valuation. The valuation pillar of 34 is the lowest of our five. A model-based estimate from FMP, a data provider, puts discounted-cash-flow value at $320.85 per share, far below the market price. Such models depend heavily on their assumptions and are often conservative for growth companies, but the gap shows how much future growth is already priced in.
- Revenue missed. The sales shortfall versus estimates was small, but with a high multiple, even small misses can matter.
- Lumpy cash. The strong latest quarter followed a negative one earlier in 2026. Investors should not assume EUR 11.38B of free cash flow repeats every quarter.
- Margin sustainability. The latest margin step was large. If part of it came from a favorable mix of products or one-time effects, it may not hold. We could not confirm the cause from the data available.
What to watch next
- Jan. 27, 2027 earnings: analysts expect EPS of $16.61 and revenue of $16.34B. Watch whether revenue meets the estimate this time.
- Margins: whether operating margin stays near the latest 44.4% or falls back toward earlier levels.
- Cash flow: whether free cash flow stays positive after the volatile pattern of the past five quarters.
- Capital returns: the pace of buybacks versus dividends after the large buyback in the latest quarter.
- Estimate revisions: whether analysts move their targets after the Oct. 30 price drop.
Frequently asked questions
Q: Did ASML beat earnings expectations in the third quarter of 2026?
ASML beat on profit but narrowly missed on revenue. Per the Oct. 14, 2026 report, EPS was $14.89 against a $12.47 estimate, while revenue was $12.97B against a $13.14B estimate.
Q: Why did ASML stock fall on October 30, 2026?
The latest quote showed a 7.95% decline, but the data we have does not state a cause, so we cannot name one. For context only, and not as the reason for the decline, the shares trade at a trailing P/E of 40.34, and recent headlines discussed the stock's valuation and its position in the AI chip boom.
Q: Is ASML expensive compared with other chip equipment makers?
On P/E, ASML's 40.34 is above Applied Materials at 32.97, ASM International at 35.76 and SCREEN at 25.06, and below Camtek at 142.36. ASML also has the highest net margin of the group at 34.1%. Our MoonshotScore valuation pillar is 34, which rates it weak relative to its sector, while its quality pillar is 94.
This is educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.