Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) fell 11.80% on the latest quote (as of Oct. 30, 2026) and will report third-quarter results on Nov. 12, 2026, before the market opens. In the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue was $206.2M, far above a year earlier, yet the company still lost money and burned cash. That gap between a growing top line and a thin business underneath is the real test for commercial space stocks right now.
Figures are current as of Oct. 30, 2026 and cover the quarter ended June 30, 2026 unless stated. This is a theme piece, not investment advice.
Key facts
- Oct. 30, 2026: Shares were at $10.3016, down 11.80% on the latest quote. The 52-week range is $7.78 to $46.75. Market cap is $2.09B.
- Aug. 13, 2026: Intuitive Machines reported second-quarter revenue of $206.2M against an analyst estimate of $212.3M, a small miss.
- Same report: Diluted earnings per share (EPS, profit per share) were a loss of $0.29 against an estimate of a loss of $0.09036.
- June 30, 2026: Cash and short-term investments were $367.4M against total debt of $429.8M.
- Nov. 12, 2026: Next earnings date. Analysts expect revenue of $245.9M and an EPS loss of $0.1022 for the third quarter.
Revenue rose 309.8% from the year-ago quarter, while the net loss was larger.
What is the theme: space as infrastructure?
The theme is the shift of space from one-off government missions toward ongoing services: building spacecraft, relaying communications, and operating systems in Earth orbit and around the Moon. Intuitive Machines describes itself as a space infrastructure company serving commercial, civil and national security customers. According to its releases, it recently delivered a satellite to SiriusXM.
The appeal is that recurring contracts could eventually smooth out the lumpy, mission-by-mission revenue that space companies are known for. The risk is that building hardware is costly, and contracts can take years to turn into steady profit. LUNR is a useful example because the latest numbers show both sides.
What happened
Two things stand out in the second quarter.
Revenue stepped up sharply. Product revenue was $166.7M and service revenue was $36.7M. These segment figures do not sum to the $206.2M total revenue. Revenue has been at a much higher level for two quarters now: $186.7M in the first quarter and $206.2M in the second, versus $44.8M to $52.4M in the three quarters before that. The company's release materials point to a broader business mix, including spacecraft manufacturing. The financial data we use do not break down exactly what drove the jump, so we won't guess.
Profitability improved from a year ago but slipped from the first quarter, and the company remains unprofitable. Gross margin (the share of revenue left after direct costs) was 17.4% in the second quarter, better than negative 23.5% a year earlier but down from 39.0% in the first quarter. Operating margin was negative 22.9%, better than negative 56.9% a year earlier but slightly worse than negative 21.0% in the first quarter, meaning the company still loses money on its core operations. Free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending) was an outflow of $83.9M, the largest in the five quarters below and worse than both the year-ago and first-quarter outflows.
| Quarter ended | Revenue | Gross margin | Operating margin | Free cash flow | |---|---|---|---|---| | June 30, 2025 | $50.3M | -23.5% | -56.9% | outflow of $27.3M | | Sept. 30, 2025 | $52.4M | 21.7% | -29.4% | outflow of $19.0M | | Dec. 31, 2025 | $44.8M | 30.2% | -73.9% | outflow of $23.0M | | March 31, 2026 | $186.7M | 39.0% | -21.0% | outflow of $64.6M | | June 30, 2026 | $206.2M | 17.4% | -22.9% | outflow of $83.9M |
This table shows the core issue: revenue changed level in 2026, but cash outflow grew along with it. Operating cash flow was an outflow of $59.8M in the second quarter, and capital spending was $24.1M. The company paid no dividends and made no buybacks.
No earnings-call transcript was available to us for this quarter, so we cannot quote management on why gross margin dropped. That is a question to listen for on Nov. 12.
Why it matters for investors
Balance sheet. At June 30, 2026, net debt (debt minus cash) was $62.4M, and shareholders' equity was negative $283.7M. Two financial-strength gauges are low: the Piotroski score (a 0-9 health checklist) is 2, and the Altman Z-score (a bankruptcy-risk gauge where lower is weaker) is 0.60. With cash flow negative, the company may need to raise money or borrow more; that is a general risk, not something the company has announced.
Valuation against peers. LUNR trades at 4.33 times trailing-12-month sales, with a net margin of negative 26.7%. Its price-to-earnings ratio is negative 11.13, which only says it is losing money. Peers are a mixed group:
- Applied Aerospace & Defense (AADX): market cap $1.89B, P/E negative 7.19, net margin negative 40.1%.
- Planet Labs (PL): market cap $4.52B, P/E negative 12.08, net margin negative 95.1%.
- AIRO Group (AIRO): market cap $159.7M, P/E negative 6.06, net margin negative 23.9%.
- Leonardo DRS (DRS): market cap $10.00B, P/E 27.54, net margin 9.4%. It is the only profitable one here.
Analysts versus the market. Analysts are far more optimistic than the share price. Of 11 ratings, 10 are buy and 1 is sell, and the consensus is "Buy." The average price target is $31.00, with a range from $25.00 to $39.00. The stock was at $10.3016 on Oct. 30, 2026. Targets are opinions, not forecasts we endorse, and they can lag a falling price. Two analysts forecast revenue of $311.5M for the period ending March 30, 2028 and $328.6M for the period ending June 30, 2028, with EPS losses of $0.05 and $0.03. So even the optimistic view has losses narrowing slowly. One model in our data, FMP's discounted cash flow estimate, gives a value of negative $15.30 per share. Such models struggle with companies that burn cash, so treat it as a caution flag, not a verdict.
Our own score. Stock Expert AI's MoonshotScore V2 for LUNR is 19.1, rated Weak. The pillars are measured against its sector: growth 8, momentum 29, quality 21, safety 11 and valuation 12. Momentum is the strongest pillar but still low, and growth is the weakest despite the revenue jump. Safety is also low, matching the balance sheet.
Insiders. Among the 30 most recent insider filings, those dated within the last 90 days show 0 open-market purchases and 10 sales. Older filings in that window may be missing. Insider sales can happen for many personal reasons, but in the filings we have, there is no insider buying to offset them.
What could go wrong
- Gross margin could stay near the second-quarter level, leaving little room to cover operating costs.
- Cash burn could continue, forcing financing that dilutes existing shareholders.
- Revenue could miss estimates again, as it did slightly in the second quarter.
- The stock has a wide 52-week range, so large moves in both directions are normal for it.
What to watch next
1. Nov. 12, 2026, before the open: third-quarter results, with an 8:30 am ET call. The estimates are revenue of $245.9M and an EPS loss of $0.1022. 2. Gross margin: whether it recovers from 17.4%, and what management says caused the drop. 3. Free cash flow: whether the outflow narrows from $83.9M. 4. Cash and debt: how they compare with the $367.4M and $429.8M reported at June 30, 2026. 5. Contract news: civil and commercial contract awards that would support the infrastructure story.
Frequently asked questions
Q: Why did Intuitive Machines stock fall on Oct. 30, 2026?
The stock was down 11.80% on the latest quote on Oct. 30, 2026, but we have no company announcement explaining that day's move. The only company release in our sources this week set the date of its third-quarter report. The shares sit well below their 52-week high of $46.75.
Q: Is Intuitive Machines profitable?
No. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, it reported a net loss of $46.4M and an EPS loss of $0.29 on revenue of $206.2M. Its trailing net margin is negative 26.7%. Analysts' estimates imply losses continuing into 2028, though smaller.
Q: When does Intuitive Machines report earnings, and what do analysts expect?
Intuitive Machines reports third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 12, 2026, before the market opens, with a call at 8:30 am ET. Analysts expect revenue of $245.9M and an EPS loss of $0.1022, according to FMP data.
Sources: Stock Expert AI market data and MoonshotScore (our own), financial data from FMP; company information from Intuitive Machines' press releases. Third-party headlines were used for context only.
This is educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.