CareDx (CDNA) stock rose 22.22% to 87.41 USD on Oct. 30, 2026, and 21.18% over two sessions from the Oct. 28 close. According to The Motley Fool and the company's earnings call, the move followed a third-quarter report with fast growth in testing services and a raised 2026 outlook. Revenue and earnings came in well above analyst estimates, and management said its newly acquired cancer-testing business is adding to a transplant business that is still growing.
Figures are current as of the Oct. 30, 2026 quote and cover the third quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026, unless stated otherwise.
Key facts
- Oct. 30, 2026: shares closed at 87.41 USD, up 22.22% on the day, near the top of a 52-week range of 14.27-90.87 USD. Market cap is $4.59B.
- Oct. 29, 2026 (third quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026): revenue was $139.4M against an analyst estimate of $122.0M, a beat of $17.4M. On the call, management said this included $15M of out-of-period revenue (revenue from earlier periods), versus $6M a year earlier and a prior estimate of $8M. Excluding it, revenue grew 32% year over year.
- Same report: EPS (earnings per share) was 0.7 against an estimate of 0.2548, a difference of +$0.45. GAAP diluted EPS was 0.35.
- Guidance: on its Oct. 29 call, the company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $520M-$530M and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $90M-$100M. Its fourth-quarter model points below the third quarter (see below).
- Next earnings date: Feb. 23, 2027, with an EPS estimate of 0.3394 and a revenue estimate of $134.0M.
Revenue rose 39.3% from a year earlier, or 32% excluding out-of-period revenue, according to management. Net income rose 1051.8%, from a small base.
What happened
CareDx sells blood tests that help doctors monitor organ transplant patients, and since July it also sells a cancer blood test. On Oct. 29, it reported third-quarter results. The next trading day, Oct. 30, the stock jumped.
The Motley Fool (fool.com) attributed the rise to "impressive growth metrics." Its report points to strong growth in testing services revenue and higher testing volumes, helped by the July acquisition of a cancer blood-test maker. It also cites pharmacy growth that helped drive a 31% rise in patient and digital revenue, slower than the 65% rise in testing services, and a sharp rise in adjusted EBITDA (a profit measure that leaves out interest, taxes, depreciation and some other costs).
The segment data in our figures fits that. Service revenue was $119.2M in the quarter, against $72.2M a year earlier. Almost all revenue, $138.8M, came from the United States.
On the call, CEO John Hanna said: "We had another strong quarter of solid execution, extending our leadership in transplantation, expanding into specialty oncology and preparing for our entrance into cell therapy." Management said transplant testing volume grew year over year, helped by doctors adopting regular surveillance testing for kidney, lung and heart patients. It said lung was especially strong. It also said revenue per transplant test rose, partly because of payment true-ups, meaning catch-up payments for earlier work. The July cancer-test acquisition added both revenue and test volume.
Management raised its full-year 2026 revenue range to $520M-$530M and its adjusted EBITDA range to $90M-$100M. Its fourth-quarter model, however, sits below the third quarter. Revenue is $131M-$141M, with a $136M midpoint versus $139.4M in the third quarter. Adjusted EBITDA is $16M-$26M, with a $21M midpoint, about 15% of revenue, versus $30M, or 22%, in the third quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin is 71%-72%, versus 74%. Management gave no 2027 guidance, but pointed back to its earlier multi-year growth plan for transplant and for the cancer test.
Why it matters for investors
Operating profit improved, but the fourth-quarter outlook points lower. Operating margin (the share of revenue left after running costs) was 5.8% in the latest quarter. That is the highest of the last 5 quarters. Operating margin was -0.2% a year earlier and -5.6% in the fourth quarter of FY2025. The fourth-quarter model above implies lower revenue and adjusted EBITDA than the third quarter.
| Quarter ended | Revenue | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net income | |---|---|---|---|---| | Sept. 30, 2025 | $100.1M | 69.4% | -0.2% | $1.7M | | Dec. 31, 2025 | $108.4M | 67.2% | -5.6% | $-4.1M | | Mar. 31, 2026 | $117.7M | 71.4% | 1.5% | $2.8M | | June 30, 2026 | $131.9M | 73.5% | 0.2% | $110.6M | | Sept. 30, 2026 | $139.4M | 71.1% | 5.8% | $19.3M |
The table shows revenue rising every quarter while operating margin recovered from a loss. The $110.6M net income in the June 2026 quarter is far out of line with the rest, so operating margin is the cleaner measure here.
Cash flow is more mixed. Free cash flow (cash from operations minus capital spending) was $11.1M in the latest quarter. That is below $28.7M in the June 2026 quarter and below $36.1M a year earlier. On the call, management said operating cash flow included seller-funded transaction expenses and option compensation paid after the deal closed. The company made no share buybacks in the 2026 quarters, after repurchases of $12.2M in the fourth quarter of FY2025 and $25.6M in the third quarter of FY2025.
The balance sheet is strong. At Sept. 30, 2026, CareDx held $250.5M in cash and short-term investments against $29.0M of total debt, leaving net debt of $-221.5M, which means more cash than debt. Its Altman Z score (a bankruptcy-risk gauge where higher is safer) is 15.68, and its Piotroski score (a 0-9 financial health check) is 6.
Valuation is not cheap. On a trailing 12-month basis, the P/E (price relative to earnings) is 35.10, price/sales is 9.23, EV/EBITDA is 153.18 and price/free cash flow is 76.42. Net margin is 25.9%, which is inflated by the large net income in the June quarter.
Peers vary widely:
| Company | Market cap | P/E | Net margin | |---|---|---|---| | CareDx | $4.59B | 35.10 | 25.9% | | BillionToOne (BLLN) | $5.35B | 164.21 | 8.4% | | Natera (NTRA) | $59.72B | -304.63 | -7.1% | | Fulgent Genetics (FLGT) | $567.4M | -7.31 | -26.0% | | Myriad Genetics (MYGN) | $607.4M | -5.32 | -14.0% |
CareDx has a higher net margin and a positive P/E, while three of these four peers have negative earnings. The financial-data model we use (FMP) puts its discounted cash flow value at -11.60 USD per share. We treat that as a model output that doesn't fit a growing company, not as a verdict.
Analysts are positive, but the price is above their average target. Of 14 ratings, 11 are Buy and 3 are Hold, with none at Sell. Price targets average 75.25 USD, with a median of 78.00 USD, a high of 99.00 USD and a low of 46.00 USD. The 87.41 USD close is above the average and median targets. BTIG reiterated its Buy rating on Oct. 30 and Oct. 27, and Canaccord Genuity did so on Oct. 19.
Our MoonshotScore is 83.1 (Exceptional). This is Stock Expert AI's own score, and its pillars are measured relative to the sector:
- Momentum: 100
- Quality: 93
- Safety: 71
- Growth: 30
- Valuation: 35
What could go wrong. Comments on the call point to several risks:
- COO and CFO Keith Kennedy, while saying revenue cycle management "is going great," added that getting paid takes constant work: "the payers just don't want to pay."
- Out-of-period revenue was $15M in the third quarter and is modeled at $8M in the fourth. Kennedy described a goal of about 2% of revenue per quarter.
- Deal-related costs may recur for a year or two.
- The two radiation de-escalation trials using the cancer test were Phase II, "not definitive Phase III," in Hanna's words.
- New tests in the pipeline depend on lab certification readiness by the end of 2026, and meaningful revenue is years away.
What to watch next
- Fourth-quarter results on Feb. 23, 2027. Analysts expect EPS of 0.3394 and revenue of $134.0M. Management's own range will be the first test of the raised outlook.
- Cancer-test pricing. Management said it expects the average price per test to rise over time and said it hopes to give more detail on the fourth-quarter call.
- Cash flow. Watch whether free cash flow moves back toward levels seen in the June 2026 quarter once deal-related costs fade.
- Insurer payments. Management said an August payment policy change did not hurt doctors' use of the tests, and later quarters will show whether that holds.
- Analyst estimates. Coverage is thin for later periods. For the quarter ending June 30, 2028, 2 analysts expect revenue of $163.2M and EPS of 0.58.
Frequently asked questions
Q: Why did CareDx stock go up on Oct. 30, 2026?
CareDx shares rose 22.22% after the company's third-quarter report. According to The Motley Fool, the report showed strong growth in testing services and test volumes, helped by a July acquisition. Revenue of $139.4M beat the analyst estimate of $122.0M, and management raised its full-year outlook.
Q: Did CareDx beat earnings estimates in the third quarter of 2026?
Yes. For the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2026, CareDx reported EPS of 0.7 against an analyst estimate of 0.2548. Revenue was $139.4M against an estimate of $122.0M. GAAP diluted EPS was 0.35.
Q: What do analysts think of CareDx stock after the jump?
Of 14 analyst ratings, 11 are Buy and 3 are Hold, and the consensus is Buy. Price targets average 75.25 USD, within a range of 46.00 USD to 99.00 USD. The stock's 87.41 USD close on Oct. 30, 2026 is above the average target. This is a report of analyst views, not advice.
Sources: Stock Expert AI market data (FMP-based prices, financials, estimates, ratings and MoonshotScore); third-party reports: The Motley Fool (fool.com, Oct. 30, 2026) and CareDx's Q3 2026 earnings call (Oct. 29, 2026).
This is educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.