Vistra Corp. (VST) said on Oct. 30, 2026 that it completed its acquisition of Cogentrix Energy, a portfolio of modern natural gas power plants in the PJM, ISO New England and ERCOT regions. The deal follows a second quarter, reported on Aug. 7, 2026, in which earnings per share of $0.77 missed the $1.61 analysts expected, and it comes a week before the next report on Nov. 6, 2026. The question for investors is whether a bigger fleet can turn into steadier profit while the company carries about $19.89B of total debt.
Figures are current as of Oct. 30, 2026 (share price) and cover the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 unless stated otherwise.
Key facts
- Oct. 30, 2026: Vistra said it closed the Cogentrix purchase from funds managed by Quantum Capital Group, after receiving all required regulatory approvals. It also bought out the remaining minority stake in two Pennsylvania plants.
- Oct. 30, 2026: VST closed at $138.37, down 1.83% on the day. The 52-week range is $132.66 to $196.80.
- Q2 FY2026 (ended June 30, 2026): revenue was $4.02B, down 5.5% from a year earlier. Net income was $305.0M, down 6.7%.
- Aug. 7, 2026: Vistra reported EPS of $0.77 against an estimate of $1.61, and revenue of $4.02B against an estimate of $5.46B.
- Nov. 6, 2026: next earnings date. Analysts expect EPS of $2.98 and revenue of $6.03B.
What happened
The theme: Vistra's CEO pointed to the nation's growing energy needs as the reason natural gas capacity fits the company's plans. Vistra is both a power producer and a retail electricity seller, with a fleet that spans gas, nuclear, coal, solar and batteries, according to its release. The release says the added assets expand its generation portfolio..
The deal: According to its release, Vistra now owns the Cogentrix plants outright. They are mostly efficient combined-cycle and cogeneration units, plus two combustion-turbine plants, Rock Springs and Ocean. A combined-cycle plant uses waste heat from a gas turbine to make extra electricity. Cogeneration also produces useful heat for nearby industrial users. CEO Jim Burke said, "Natural gas plays a critical role in meeting our nation's growing energy needs, and the Cogentrix assets are a strong strategic fit for Vistra." The company pointed to earlier deals it has integrated, including the Energy Harbor nuclear fleet in March 2024 and a set of gas plants from Lotus Infrastructure Partners in October 2025. Vistra did not give the purchase price in the release text we reviewed, and we do not state one here.
The backdrop: The deal closed after a soft quarter. Q2 FY2026 revenue and profit were both lower than a year earlier. FMP's segment data do not explain the decline:
| Segment revenue | Q2 FY2026 | Q2 FY2025 | |---|---|---| | Retail | $2.25B | $2.21B | | East | $1.09B | $793.0M | | Texas | $620.0M | $474.0M | | Other wholesale contracts | $437.0M | $280.0M |
Every segment brought in more revenue than a year earlier, yet total revenue fell. FMP's data do not list the offsetting items, so we cannot say which line explains the gap. We also did not have the earnings call transcript, so we cannot quote management on the cause. Investors should look for that explanation on Nov. 6.
Why it matters for investors
Results swing a lot from quarter to quarter. Here is the five-quarter trend:
| Quarter (ended) | Revenue | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net income | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q2 FY2025 (June 30, 2025) | $4.25B | 36.3% | 13.7% | $327.0M | | Q3 FY2025 (Sept. 30, 2025) | $4.97B | 39.1% | 21.0% | $652.0M | | Q4 FY2025 (Dec. 31, 2025) | $4.58B | 33.9% | 10.3% | $233.0M | | Q1 FY2026 (Mar. 31, 2026) | $5.64B | 42.7% | 26.6% | $1.03B | | Q2 FY2026 (June 30, 2026) | $4.02B | 34.6% | 13.8% | $305.0M |
The table shows why one quarter says little. Operating margin (the share of revenue left after running costs) ranged from 10.3% to 26.6% across these five quarters. The latest quarter, at 13.8%, was close to the year-ago level of 13.7%, but similar margins do not explain why EPS and revenue came in below estimates, and the evidence we have offers no explanation. Still, the first quarter of 2026 was the outlier on the upside.
Cash flow is thin after heavy spending. In Q2 FY2026 operating cash flow was $1.02B and capital spending was $890.0M, leaving free cash flow (cash left after investment) of $133.0M. That compares with $316.0M in Q1 FY2026 and $1.01B in Q3 FY2025. Vistra still spent $337.0M on buybacks and $77.0M on dividends in the quarter, so shareholder payouts were larger than free cash flow that period.
The balance sheet is stretched. As of June 30, 2026, Vistra held $435.0M in cash against $19.89B of total debt, for net debt of $19.46B and shareholders' equity of $5.48B. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 3.63. Its Altman Z score is 1.52. This is a bankruptcy-risk gauge where lower readings signal more stress, and analysts often treat low readings as a caution flag. Its Piotroski score is 6 on a 0-9 scale, a middling reading of financial health. These figures predate the Cogentrix closing, so we cannot say how the deal changes them.
Valuation versus peers (trailing 12 months): VST trades at a P/E of 23.06 with a net margin of 11.6%.
| Company | P/E | Net margin | |---|---|---| | Vistra (VST) | 23.06 | 11.6% | | Constellation Energy (CEG) | 25.47 | 11.1% | | CGN Power (CGNWF) | 22.40 | 16.1% | | AES (AES) | 5.64 | 14.6% | | Clearway Energy (CWEN) | 42.14 | 5.8% |
Vistra sits in the middle of this group on P/E, below peer Constellation Energy, and its net margin is also mid-pack. Other trailing measures: EV/EBITDA of 10.03, price-to-free-cash-flow of 33.75 and a dividend yield of 0.7%.
Analysts remain positive. Of 24 ratings, 22 are Buy and 2 are Hold, with no Sell ratings. Price targets average $197.94, with a median of $194.00, a high of $255.00 and a low of $169.00. The share price of $138.37 sits below the lowest target, which shows how far analyst views are from the market price. In October, CIBC, Wells Fargo, Scotiabank, B of A Securities, Morgan Stanley and BMO all kept their positive ratings. FMP's discounted cash flow model, which estimates value from projected cash, gives $173.07 per share. Models like this depend heavily on their assumptions.
Our own score: Stock Expert AI's MoonshotScore for VST is 63.8, rated Fair. By pillar, measured against its sector, quality is the standout at 95. Growth (49) and valuation (43) are middling to soft. Safety (38) and momentum (26) are the weak spots. That fits the picture above: a profitable business with a leveraged balance sheet and a share price near the bottom of its 52-week range.
Insiders: In the last 90 days, filings show three open-market purchases and six sales. The data may be incomplete, and the mix is not a clear signal either way.
What could go wrong
- Debt: Net debt of $19.46B leaves less room for error if power prices fall or a plant is offline longer than planned.
- Integration: Absorbing a new set of plants, teams and contracts takes time, though Vistra pointed to its past deals.
- Earnings volatility: The Q2 miss against estimates shows how far results can land from expectations.
- Fuel exposure: Adding gas plants raises the company's dependence on gas prices and gas-fired power markets.
- Thin cash cushion: Free cash flow of $133.0M in Q2 FY2026 was below the buybacks and dividends paid in that quarter.
What to watch next
1. Nov. 6, 2026 results: Does Vistra meet the EPS estimate of $2.98 and revenue estimate of $6.03B for the third quarter? 2. Commentary on Cogentrix: Management's view on earnings contribution, financing and any change to its outlook. 3. Cash flow and debt: Whether free cash flow recovers and how net debt looks after the closing. 4. Capital returns: Whether buybacks continue at the recent pace. 5. Analyst reaction: Whether the price-target range moves after the report.
Frequently asked questions
Q: What did Vistra buy when it acquired Cogentrix Energy?
Vistra bought a portfolio of modern natural gas plants in the PJM, ISO New England and ERCOT power markets from funds managed by Quantum Capital Group. The company said it closed the deal on Oct. 30, 2026, after all required regulatory approvals. It now owns every plant in the group outright.
Q: How did Vistra stock trade on the day it announced the closing?
VST closed down 1.83% at $138.37 on Oct. 30, 2026, but we cannot say the deal caused the drop. The shares were already near the low end of their 52-week range of $132.66 to $196.80. Separately, Vistra reported on Aug. 7, 2026 second-quarter EPS of $0.77 against the $1.61 estimate, and we cannot tie that report to the Oct. 30 move.
Q: When does Vistra report earnings, and what do analysts expect?
Vistra reports third-quarter results on Nov. 6, 2026. Analysts expect EPS of $2.98 and revenue of $6.03B. Those are consensus estimates, not company guidance, and the company missed the prior quarter's estimates by a wide margin.
This is educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.