CareDx, Inc (CDNA) Stock Analysis
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Analysis by Sedat ANAK, Founder & Editor-in-Chief | AI-powered analysis. Data sourced from SEC filings and institutional-grade financial providers. Editorially reviewed. Not financial advice.
CareDx, Inc (CDNA) trades at $38.37 with AI Score 39/100 (Grade D). CareDx, Inc. is a leading precision medicine company focused on transplant patient care. Market cap: $1.98B, Sector: Healthcare.
Price as of Jul 20, 2026 · Last analyzed: May 9, 2026CDNA stock analysis for 2026: Analysts have set a consensus price target of $23.33 for CareDx, Inc, suggesting 39.2% downside from the current price of $38.37. The AI MoonshotScore is 39/100, indicating a bearish outlook. Key factors: analyst coverage, AI-driven quantitative scoring.
CDNA: 1/3 scored disciplines lean bearish. Dominant signal: Izzy Englander bearish.
How is this calculated? →Why this analysis is different
- A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
- An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
- Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.
CareDx, Inc (CDNA) Healthcare & Pipeline Overview
CareDx, Inc. pioneers diagnostic solutions for transplant patients, offering AlloSure and AlloMap to monitor organ health post-transplant. With a focus on precision medicine and a growing suite of NGS-based HLA typing solutions, CareDx addresses the critical needs of the transplant community, operating within the expanding medical diagnostics sector.
What Is the Investment Thesis for CDNA?
CareDx presents a notable research candidate within the transplant diagnostics market. The company's revenue is driven by its innovative AlloSure and AlloMap testing services, which address a critical need for non-invasive monitoring of transplant rejection. With a gross margin of 68.6%, CareDx demonstrates strong profitability potential as it scales its operations. Growth catalysts include the expansion of AlloSure and AlloMap into new transplant types and geographies, as well as the increasing adoption of NGS-based HLA typing solutions. Key risks include competition from other diagnostic companies and potential changes in reimbursement policies. Investors should monitor the company's ability to maintain its market share and expand its product portfolio to sustain long-term growth.
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis
CDNA Key Highlights
- Market Cap of $1.98B reflects investor confidence in CareDx's growth potential within the transplant diagnostics market.
- Gross Margin of 68.6% indicates strong pricing power and efficient cost management in the delivery of diagnostic services.
- Profit Margin of -2.0% suggests ongoing investments in R&D and commercial expansion, with potential for future profitability improvements.
- Beta of 2.54 indicates higher volatility compared to the market, reflecting the growth-oriented nature of the company.
- Focus on non-invasive diagnostic solutions positions CareDx to capitalize on the increasing demand for patient-friendly monitoring technologies in transplant care.
Who Are CDNA's Competitors?
CDNA is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.
| Company | Price | Change | Market Cap | AI Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLK Olink Holding AB (publ) | $26.08 | +0.31% | $3.24B | 58 |
| DSRLF DiaSorin S.p.A. | $77.58 | -3.51% | $3.84B | 52 |
| SHC Sotera Health Company | $17.42 | -1.86% | $4.97B | 78 |
| BLLN BillionToOne, Inc. | $125.14 | -3.97% | $5.76B | 99 |
| SKHHY Sonic Healthcare Limited | $15.07 | -2.33% | $7.45B | 52 |
| QGEN Qiagen N.V. | $40.48 | -1.63% | $8.35B | 56 |
| BMXMF bioMérieux S.A. | $80.31 | -0.43% | $9.48B | 52 |
| CRL Charles River Laboratories International, Inc. | $219.70 | -2.07% | $10.6B | 59 |
AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance
What Are CDNA's Key Strengths?
- Proprietary diagnostic technologies for transplant monitoring.
- Established market position in transplant diagnostics.
- Strong relationships with transplant centers and physicians.
- Comprehensive suite of solutions for transplant patients.
What Are CDNA's Weaknesses?
- Limited geographic reach compared to larger diagnostic companies.
- Dependence on reimbursement policies for diagnostic testing.
- Negative profit margin.
- High beta value indicates higher volatility.
What Could Drive CDNA Stock Higher?
- Expansion of AlloSure and AlloMap into new transplant types (e.g., intestinal, multi-organ) by 2028.
- Increasing adoption of NGS-based HLA typing solutions, driving revenue growth.
- Strategic partnerships and acquisitions to expand product portfolio and market reach.
- Potential positive changes in reimbursement policies for diagnostic testing.
What Are the Key Risks for CDNA?
- Competition from other diagnostic companies offering similar testing services.
- Changes in reimbursement policies for diagnostic testing, affecting revenue.
- Patent expiration risks for key diagnostic technologies.
- Economic downturn affecting healthcare spending and demand for diagnostic testing.
- Regulatory hurdles and compliance requirements for diagnostic products.
What Are the Growth Opportunities for CDNA?
- Expansion of AlloSure and AlloMap into New Transplant Types: CareDx has the opportunity to expand the use of its AlloSure and AlloMap testing services into new transplant types, such as intestinal and multi-organ transplants. This expansion would significantly increase the addressable market for these products. The market size for transplant diagnostics is projected to reach $10 billion by 2030, providing a substantial growth opportunity for CareDx. Timeline: 2026-2028.
- Increased Adoption of NGS-Based HLA Typing Solutions: CareDx's TruSight HLA and AlloSeq Tx solutions offer high-resolution HLA typing, which is essential for accurate donor-recipient matching. The increasing adoption of NGS technology in HLA typing presents a significant growth opportunity for CareDx. The global HLA typing market is estimated at $500 million annually. Timeline: Ongoing.
- Geographic Expansion into International Markets: CareDx has the opportunity to expand its geographic reach into international markets, such as Europe and Asia. These markets offer significant growth potential for the company's diagnostic solutions. The international transplant diagnostics market is estimated to be worth $2 billion. Timeline: 2027-2029.
- Development of New Diagnostic Solutions for Transplant Patients: CareDx can leverage its expertise in transplant diagnostics to develop new solutions for monitoring and managing transplant patients. This includes developing new tests for detecting infections and other complications. The market for new transplant diagnostic solutions is estimated at $1 billion. Timeline: Ongoing.
- Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions: CareDx can pursue strategic partnerships and acquisitions to expand its product portfolio and market reach. This includes partnering with other diagnostic companies and acquiring companies with complementary technologies. The market for transplant-related acquisitions is estimated at $500 million. Timeline: Ongoing.
What Opportunities Does CDNA Have?
- Expansion into new transplant types and geographies.
- Increased adoption of NGS-based HLA typing solutions.
- Development of new diagnostic solutions for transplant patients.
- Strategic partnerships and acquisitions to expand product portfolio.
What Threats Does CDNA Face?
- Competition from other diagnostic companies.
- Changes in reimbursement policies for diagnostic testing.
- Patent expiration risks for key diagnostic technologies.
- Economic downturn affecting healthcare spending.
What Are CDNA's Competitive Advantages?
- Proprietary diagnostic technologies, such as AlloSure and AlloMap.
- Established relationships with transplant centers and physicians.
- Extensive database of transplant patient data.
- Strategic partnerships with leading companies in the transplant field.
What Does CDNA Do?
CareDx, Inc., founded in 1998 and formerly known as XDx, Inc., is a precision medicine company dedicated to improving the lives of transplant patients. Headquartered in South San Francisco, California, CareDx discovers, develops, and commercializes diagnostic solutions that address the critical needs of transplant recipients and their caregivers. The company's flagship products include AlloSure Kidney, AlloMap Heart, AlloSure Heart, and AlloSure Lung, which are donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) and gene expression solutions used to monitor the health of transplanted organs. These non-invasive tests provide clinicians with valuable insights into organ rejection, enabling timely intervention and improved patient outcomes. CareDx also offers a range of HLA typing solutions, including TruSight HLA, Olerup SSP, and QTYPE, which are used to determine the compatibility between donors and recipients. These solutions are based on next-generation sequencing (NGS) and sequence-specific primer technology, providing high-resolution typing for accurate matching. Additionally, CareDx provides Ottr, a transplant patient management software, and AlloCare, a mobile app that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients. The company markets its products directly to customers and through third-party distributors and sub-distributors. CareDx has strategic partnerships with companies like Illumina, Inc. and Cibiltech SAS to expand its product offerings and market reach.
What Products and Services Does CDNA Offer?
- Develops and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients.
- Offers AlloSure Kidney, a dd-cfDNA solution for kidney transplant patients.
- Provides AlloMap Heart, a gene expression solution for heart transplant patients.
- Offers AlloSure Heart and AlloSure Lung, dd-cfDNA solutions for heart and lung transplant patients.
- Provides TruSight HLA, an NGS-based high-resolution typing solution.
- Offers Ottr, a transplant patient management software.
- Provides AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution.
How Does CDNA Make Money?
- Direct sales of diagnostic solutions to hospitals and transplant centers.
- Sales through third-party distributors and sub-distributors.
- Revenue from testing services, such as AlloSure and AlloMap.
- Licensing agreements for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies.
What Industry Does CDNA Operate In?
CareDx operates within the medical diagnostics industry, specifically focusing on transplant diagnostics. The industry is characterized by increasing demand for non-invasive monitoring solutions and personalized medicine approaches. The market for transplant diagnostics is driven by the growing number of transplant procedures performed globally and the need for improved patient outcomes. CareDx competes with other diagnostic companies offering similar testing services, as well as larger players in the HLA typing market. The company's focus on innovation and strategic partnerships positions it to capitalize on the growth opportunities within the industry.
Who Are CDNA's Key Customers?
- Transplant centers and hospitals.
- Transplant physicians and surgeons.
- Histocompatibility laboratories.
- Transplant patients and caregivers.
Company Profile
CareDx, Inc operates in the Medical - Diagnostics & Research industry within the Healthcare sector. It is headquartered in South San Francisco, US. The company is led by CEO John Walter Hanna Jr.. CDNA has traded publicly since 2014.
FY2026 estForward Outlook
Wall Street analysts project CareDx, Inc revenue of about $455.9M for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $0.93. The estimate reflects 5 contributing analysts.
F-Score 5/9Financial Health
CareDx, Inc's Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — a middling fundamental profile. Its Altman Z-Score of 11.61 places it in the safe zone, indicating low near-term bankruptcy risk.
CDNA Valuation & Market Position
Relative to its peer group, CDNA's quantitative score of 39/100 is below the peer average of 68/100.
CDNA Financials
Fundamental Snapshot
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis · FY 2025
Bull Case vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- Recent insider buying signals confidence in CareDx's future growth potential, suggesting that management believes in the company's prospects.
- Community sentiment has shifted positively, with increased discussions around CareDx's innovative solutions in transplant diagnostics.
- Positive news regarding partnerships with healthcare providers has bolstered investor optimism, enhancing the company's market position.
- The ongoing expansion into new markets has generated buzz, indicating that CareDx is poised for broader adoption of its products.
Bear Case
- Concerns over competition in the transplant diagnostics space have surfaced, leading to skepticism about CareDx's ability to maintain market share.
- Recent earnings reports showed mixed results, raising doubts among investors about the company's short-term performance.
- Community sentiment reflects worries about regulatory hurdles that could impact product launches and overall growth.
- Market perception is cautious as investors weigh the long-term sustainability of CareDx's business model amidst evolving healthcare trends.
AI-generated arguments based on insider flow, news sentiment and technicals — not financial advice · March 2026
CDNA Latest News
No recent news available for CDNA.
CDNA Analyst Consensus
Consensus Rating
Aggregated Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations from Benzinga, Yahoo Finance, and Finnhub for CDNA.
Price Targets
Consensus target: $23.33
CDNA MoonshotScore
What does this score mean?
The MoonshotScore rates CDNA 0-100 on quantitative fundamentals — growth, financial health, valuation, momentum, and risk.
Latest CareDx, Inc Analysis
Leadership: John Walter Hanna Jr.
CEO
John Walter Hanna Jr. serves as the Chief Executive Officer of CareDx, Inc. His background includes extensive experience in the healthcare industry, with a focus on diagnostics and precision medicine. Prior to joining CareDx, he held leadership positions at various healthcare companies, where he was responsible for driving growth and innovation. He has a proven track record of building and scaling successful healthcare businesses. His expertise spans strategic planning, product development, and commercial execution.
Track Record: Under John Walter Hanna Jr.'s leadership, CareDx has expanded its product portfolio and market reach. He has overseen the development and commercialization of new diagnostic solutions for transplant patients, including AlloSure Lung. Additionally, he has led the company's efforts to expand into international markets and pursue strategic partnerships. He has successfully navigated the company through regulatory challenges and reimbursement changes.
CDNA Healthcare Stock FAQ
What does the AI Score mean for CDNA?
CDNA holds an AI Score of 39/100 (Grade: D). This is an educational research signal, not a buy or sell recommendation. CareDx, Inc. is a leading precision medicine company focused on transplant patient care. The company develops and commercializes diagnostic solutions for transplant patients and caregivers globally.
What does CareDx, Inc do?
CareDx, Inc. is a precision medicine company focused on transplant patient care. It develops and commercializes diagnostic solutions that monitor the health of transplanted organs and assess compatibility between donors and recipients. Its primary products include AlloSure and AlloMap, which are used to detect organ rejection non-invasively. Additionally, CareDx offers HLA typing solutions based on next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology.
What do analysts say about CDNA stock?
Analyst consensus on CDNA stock is mixed, reflecting the company's growth potential and inherent risks. Key valuation metrics, such as price-to-sales ratio, are closely monitored. Growth considerations include the expansion of AlloSure and AlloMap into new transplant types and geographies, as well as the increasing adoption of NGS-based HLA typing solutions.
What are the main risks for CDNA?
The main risks for CDNA include competition from other diagnostic companies, potential changes in reimbursement policies for diagnostic testing, and patent expiration risks for key diagnostic technologies. Competition could erode market share and pricing power. Changes in reimbursement policies could reduce revenue and profitability. Patent expirations could lead to generic competition and reduced sales.
What are the key factors to evaluate for CDNA?
CareDx, Inc (CDNA) holds an AI score of 39/100 (low). Analysts target $23.33 (-39%). Not financial advice.
How frequently does CDNA data refresh on this page?
CDNA's price was last updated on Jul 20, 2026 and refreshes on page view during U.S. market hours — it is not a real-time exchange feed. Fundamentals update after quarterly filings; the MoonshotScore recalculates nightly; news aggregates continuously.
What has driven CDNA's recent stock price performance?
CareDx, Inc (CDNA) moves on earnings results, analyst revisions, sector rotation, and market sentiment. Notable catalyst: Proprietary diagnostic technologies for transplant monitoring. See the News tab for the latest drivers. Past performance does not predict future results.
Should investors consider CDNA overvalued or undervalued right now?
CareDx, Inc (CDNA) has no trailing P/E available here, so lean on price-to-sales and cash flow in the Financials tab. Analysts target $23.33 (-39%) — downside risk seen. Compare P/E, P/S, and EV/EBITDA against sector peers for a full view.
How do I research CDNA before investing?
Before investing in CareDx, Inc (CDNA), research these four areas: (1) the company's revenue model and competitive position (see Company Overview), (2) financial health through revenue growth, margins, and cash flow (see MoonshotScore), (3) analyst consensus ratings and price targets (see Analyst tab), and (4) specific risk factors that could impact the stock (see Risk Factors section).
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.
Official Resources
Data provided for informational purposes only.
- Information is based on available data and may be subject to change.
- Financial metrics are as of the latest reporting period.