Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Healthcare & Pipeline Overview

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. specializes in developing and commercializing therapies for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases, distinguishing itself through a diverse portfolio of approved biologic products and a robust pipeline of gene therapy candidates, operating within the competitive biotechnology sector and serving a global patient base.

What Is the Investment Thesis for RARE?

The company's existing portfolio of approved products, including Crysvita, Mepsevii, Dojolvi, and Evkeeza, generates substantial revenue, evidenced by a gross margin of 83.6%. The company's pipeline of gene therapy candidates, such as DTX401 and DTX301, represents a significant growth opportunity. However, the company's negative profit margin of -91.0% indicates ongoing challenges with profitability. Upcoming catalysts include clinical trial results for its gene therapy programs and potential regulatory approvals. Potential risks include clinical trial failures and competition from other companies developing therapies for rare diseases.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

RARE Key Highlights

Market capitalization of $2.43 billion reflects investor valuation of Ultragenyx's portfolio and pipeline.

• Gross margin of 83.6% demonstrates strong pricing power and efficient manufacturing of its approved products.
• Negative profit margin of -91.0% indicates significant ongoing investment in research and development.
• Beta of 0.25 suggests lower volatility compared to the overall market.
• No dividend yield reflects the company's focus on reinvesting earnings into growth opportunities.

Who Are RARE's Competitors?

RARE is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are RARE's Key Strengths?

Diverse portfolio of approved products.

• Robust pipeline of gene therapy candidates.
• Strong intellectual property protection.
• Experienced management team.

What Are RARE's Weaknesses?

High research and development costs.

• Dependence on regulatory approvals.
• Negative profit margin.
• Competition from other rare disease companies.

What Could Drive RARE Stock Higher?

Clinical trial results for DTX401 in Glycogen Storage Disease Type Ia.

• Clinical trial results for DTX301 in Ornithine Transcarbamylase Deficiency.
• Regulatory decisions on UX143 for Osteogenesis Imperfecta.
• Expansion of Crysvita into new geographic markets.
• Continued revenue growth from existing commercial products.

What Are the Key Risks for RARE?

Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of -5.29 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).

• Inconsistent delivery — missed Wall Street EPS estimates in 5 of the last 8 reported quarters.
• Weak fundamentals — a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 flags soft profitability, leverage or efficiency.
• Clinical trial failures for gene therapy candidates.
• Regulatory delays or rejections.
• Competition from other rare disease therapies.
• High research and development costs.
• Dependence on key personnel.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for RARE?

• Expansion of Crysvita into new indications and geographies represents a significant growth opportunity. Crysvita, an antibody targeting fibroblast growth factor 23, is already approved for X-linked hypophosphatemia and tumor-induced osteomalacia. Expanding its use to other related conditions and geographic regions could drive substantial revenue growth. The market for hypophosphatemia treatments is estimated to reach $1 billion by 2028, providing a clear target for Ultragenyx.
• Advancement of gene therapy pipeline, particularly DTX401 and DTX301, offers substantial long-term growth potential. These AAV8 gene therapies target glycogen storage disease type Ia and ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency, respectively. Successful clinical trials and regulatory approvals could result in transformative therapies for these rare genetic disorders.
• Development of UX143, a human monoclonal antibody for osteogenesis imperfecta, presents a targeted growth opportunity. Osteogenesis imperfecta, also known as brittle bone disease, affects a significant number of individuals worldwide. A successful therapy could capture a substantial portion of this market. The market for osteogenesis imperfecta treatments is estimated to reach $500 million by 2027.
• Strategic collaborations and partnerships can accelerate the development and commercialization of Ultragenyx's pipeline. Collaborations with companies like Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., REGENXBIO Inc., and Bayer Healthcare LLC provide access to expertise, resources, and technologies that can enhance Ultragenyx's capabilities. These partnerships can also de-risk development programs and expand market reach.
• Expansion of Evkeeza into broader patient populations with hypercholesterolemia represents a growth opportunity. Evkeeza is currently approved for homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. Expanding its use to patients with other forms of hypercholesterolemia could significantly increase its market potential. The market for hypercholesterolemia treatments is substantial, with statins and other therapies generating billions of dollars in annual revenue.

What Threats Does RARE Face?

• Clinical trial failures.
• Regulatory setbacks.
• Competition from biosimilars.
• Economic downturns.

What Are RARE's Competitive Advantages?

• Focus on rare diseases creates a niche market with less competition.
• Strong intellectual property protection through patents and exclusivity.
• Specialized expertise in developing and commercializing rare disease therapies.
• Established relationships with key opinion leaders and patient advocacy groups.

What Does RARE Do?

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., founded in 2010 and headquartered in Novato, California, is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to identifying, acquiring, developing, and commercializing novel treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. The company's mission is to provide life-changing therapies for patients with serious, unmet medical needs. Ultragenyx has established a diverse portfolio of approved biologic products, including Crysvita (burosumab), an antibody targeting fibroblast growth factor 23 for the treatment of X-linked hypophosphatemia and tumor-induced osteomalacia; Mepsevii, an enzyme replacement therapy for the treatment of children and adults with Mucopolysaccharidosis VII; Dojolvi for treating long-chain fatty acid oxidation disorders; and Evkeeza (evinacumab) for the treatment of homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. In addition to its commercialized products, Ultragenyx has a robust pipeline of product candidates, including DTX401 and DTX301, adeno-associated virus 8 (AAV8) gene therapies for glycogen storage disease type Ia and ornithine transcarbamylase deficiency, respectively. Other candidates include UX143, a human monoclonal antibody for osteogenesis imperfecta; GTX-102, an antisense oligonucleotide for Angelman syndrome; UX701 for Wilson disease; and UX053 for glycogen storage disease type III. Ultragenyx collaborates with various organizations, including Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd., REGENXBIO Inc., and Bayer Healthcare LLC, to advance its research and development efforts. Ultragenyx operates in North America, Europe, and internationally, focusing on addressing the unique challenges of rare disease drug development and commercialization.

What Products and Services Does RARE Offer?

• Develops and commercializes therapies for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases.
• Focuses on biologic products, including enzyme replacement therapies and monoclonal antibodies.
• Advances gene therapy candidates for genetic disorders.
• Collaborates with pharmaceutical companies and research institutions.
• Conducts clinical trials to evaluate the safety and efficacy of its product candidates.
• Seeks regulatory approvals from agencies like the FDA and EMA.
• Markets and distributes its approved products globally.

How Does RARE Make Money?

• Develops and patents novel therapies for rare genetic diseases.
• Generates revenue through the sale of approved products like Crysvita, Mepsevii, Dojolvi, and Evkeeza.
• Partners with other companies for research, development, and commercialization.
• Out-licenses certain technologies and products to generate additional revenue.

What Industry Does RARE Operate In?

The biotechnology industry is characterized by high innovation, long development timelines, and significant regulatory hurdles. Ultragenyx operates within the rare disease segment, which is experiencing increased attention and investment due to unmet medical needs and favorable regulatory pathways. The competitive landscape includes companies like CELC: Celcuity Inc., CNTA: Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc, and XENE: Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc., each focusing on different therapeutic areas and technologies. The market for rare disease therapies is projected to grow significantly, driven by advances in genetic research and increasing awareness of rare conditions.

Who Are RARE's Key Customers?

• Patients with rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases.
• Hospitals and clinics that treat patients with these conditions.
• Specialty pharmacies that distribute rare disease therapies.
• Healthcare providers who prescribe Ultragenyx's products.

Over the past six months, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. insiders filed 30 SEC Form 4 transactions — 9 sales and 21 purchases. On net that is roughly 485K shares acquired (about $7.1M) — insiders putting money in tends to read as conviction.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. has missed Wall Street's EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reported quarters — a mixed record worth weighing. Reported results have landed about 6.0% below estimates on average.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.'s Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — flagging fundamental weakness worth scrutiny. Its Altman Z-Score of -5.29 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.

Key Financial Metrics

Return on assets is -47.0%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. Its free cash flow yield is -16.9%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 2.02 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is -20.7%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Valuation Context

Analyst price targets span from $16.00 to $60.00, with a consensus of $27.69. At the current price of $14.40, that implies approximately 92% upside potential. Relative to its peer group, RARE's quantitative score of 13/100 is below the peer average of 78/100.

RARE Revenue & Earnings Trend

In Q2 FY2026, RARE generated $214.0M in top-line revenue, marking a sequential increase of 57.4%. The company recorded a net loss of $92.0M, with diluted EPS of $-0.90. Quarter-over-quarter revenue has been mixed, typical for a unknown company operating in Healthcare. Across the four most recent quarters, RARE averaged $-1.46 in diluted EPS.

Company Profile

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. operates in the Biotechnology industry within the Healthcare sector. It is headquartered in Novato, US. The company is led by CEO Emil D. Kakkis. RARE has traded publicly since 2014.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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