Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Energy Operations & Outlook

Ecopetrol S.A. stands as Colombia's largest integrated energy company, engaging in oil and gas exploration, refining, and logistics, with a robust international presence and a commitment to sustainable energy solutions.

What Is the Investment Thesis for EC?

The company boasts a profit margin of 7.5% and a gross margin of 32.6%, indicating operational efficiency. Key growth catalysts include the expansion of its refining and petrochemical segments, which are expected to benefit from increasing regional demand for refined products and biofuels. Additionally, Ecopetrol's ongoing investments in electric power transmission and infrastructure projects align with global trends towards renewable energy and sustainability. The company's dividend yield of 7.05% further enhances its attractiveness to income-focused investors. However, potential risks include fluctuations in global oil prices and regulatory challenges in its operating regions, which could impact profitability in the near term.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

EC Key Highlights

Market capitalization of $36.5B, positioning Ecopetrol as a leading player in the energy sector.

• P/E ratio of 9.16, reflecting a competitive valuation compared to industry peers.
• Profit margin of 7.5%, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency.
• Gross margin of 32.6%, exceeding industry averages and showcasing strong profitability.
• Dividend yield of 7.05%, appealing to income-focused investors seeking reliable returns.

Who Are EC's Competitors?

EC is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance This table mixes two scoring engines — compare a number only with others carrying the same tag.

What Are EC's Key Strengths?

Leading position in the Colombian energy market with significant market share.

• Diverse operational segments providing revenue stability.
• Strong financial metrics, including a healthy profit margin and dividend yield.
• Robust infrastructure, including extensive pipeline networks.

What Are EC's Weaknesses?

Exposure to fluctuations in global oil prices impacting profitability.

• Dependence on regulatory frameworks in Colombia and abroad.
• Potential operational risks associated with exploration activities.
• Limited diversification outside of the energy sector.

What Are the Key Risks for EC?

Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 1.37 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).

• Inconsistent delivery — missed Wall Street EPS estimates in 6 of the last 8 reported quarters.
• Fluctuations in global oil prices impacting revenue.
• Regulatory challenges in Colombia affecting operations.
• Environmental regulations leading to increased compliance costs.
• Competition from alternative energy sources affecting market share.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for EC?

• Growth opportunity 1: Ecopetrol's refining segment is poised for expansion, driven by increasing regional demand for refined products. The Latin American refining market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5% from 2026 to 2031, providing Ecopetrol with opportunities to enhance its production capacity and improve margins through operational efficiencies.
• Growth opportunity 2: The company's investments in biofuels and petrochemical production align with global sustainability trends. The biofuels market is projected to reach $200 billion by 2030, with Ecopetrol's initiatives in this space expected to capture a significant share, bolstering its revenue streams.
• Growth opportunity 3: Ecopetrol's electric power transmission segment is anticipated to benefit from increasing infrastructure investments in Colombia and neighboring regions. The electric power market in Colombia is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.5% through 2028, providing a favorable environment for Ecopetrol's expansion efforts.
• Growth opportunity 4: The company's strategic focus on international markets, particularly in the United States and Asia, presents opportunities for exploration and production growth. As global energy demands rise, Ecopetrol's diversified geographic presence enables it to tap into new markets and optimize its resource allocation.
• Growth opportunity 5: Ecopetrol's commitment to technological innovation in oil and gas exploration, including the use of advanced data analytics and automation, positions it well for operational improvements. The adoption of digital technologies in the oil sector is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, driving profitability in the long term.

What Threats Does EC Face?

• Volatility in global energy prices due to geopolitical tensions.
• Regulatory changes impacting operational capabilities and costs.
• Competition from both traditional and renewable energy sources.
• Environmental concerns and potential liabilities related to oil and gas operations.

What Are EC's Competitive Advantages?

• Extensive pipeline network of approximately 9,127 kilometers, providing a competitive edge in logistics.
• Strong brand recognition and established market presence in Colombia and Latin America.
• Diverse operational segments reducing dependency on any single revenue stream.
• Commitment to sustainability and innovation enhancing long-term viability.
• Strategic partnerships and international presence facilitating market expansion.

What Does EC Do?

Ecopetrol S.A., incorporated in 1948 and headquartered in Bogotá, Colombia, is a leading integrated energy company that operates through four primary segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining, Petrochemical and Biofuels; and Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The company's evolution began as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos, reflecting its foundational role in Colombia's oil sector. Over the decades, Ecopetrol has expanded its operations beyond Colombia, establishing a significant presence in the United States, Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and South America. The company engages in a wide array of activities including the exploration and production of oil and gas, transportation of crude oil and refined products, and the processing and refining of crude oil. Additionally, Ecopetrol is involved in the distribution of natural gas and LPG, sale of petrochemical products, and providing electric power transmission services. As of December 31, 2021, the company managed approximately 9,127 kilometers of pipelines, underscoring its extensive logistics capabilities. Furthermore, Ecopetrol produces and commercializes polypropylene resins and compounds, along with offering specialized management services. The company's strategic focus on sustainable practices and innovation positions it well within the evolving energy landscape.

What Products and Services Does EC Offer?

• Engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas.
• Operates extensive transportation and logistics networks for crude oil and refined products.
• Processes and refines crude oil into various products, including diesel and jet fuel.
• Distributes natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
• Produces and commercializes petrochemical products, including polypropylene resins.
• Provides electric power transmission services and manages toll road concessions.
• Develops and maintains road and energy infrastructure projects.
• Offers specialized management services and information technology solutions.

How Does EC Make Money?

• Generates revenue through the sale of crude oil and refined products.
• Monetizes transportation and logistics services for oil and gas.
• Earns income from electric power transmission and toll road operations.
• Sells petrochemical products to various industrial sectors.
• Provides specialized management and IT services to enhance operational efficiency.

What Industry Does EC Operate In?

The oil and gas integrated industry is characterized by its cyclical nature, heavily influenced by global oil prices and geopolitical factors. As of 2026, the industry is witnessing a transition towards sustainable energy solutions, with increasing investments in renewable energy sources and biofuels. Ecopetrol S.A. is well-positioned within this landscape, leveraging its extensive infrastructure and operational capabilities to adapt to changing market dynamics. The competitive landscape includes notable players such as Tenaris S.A., Halliburton Company, Venture Global, Inc., TechnipFMC plc, and Devon Energy Corporation, each vying for market share in a rapidly evolving sector. The global oil and gas market is projected to grow significantly, driven by rising energy demands, particularly in emerging markets.

Who Are EC's Key Customers?

• Oil and gas companies requiring exploration and production services.
• Industrial clients seeking refined petroleum products.
• Utilities and municipalities needing electric power transmission services.
• Construction and infrastructure firms requiring road and energy project management.
• Manufacturers in need of petrochemical materials for production processes.

Ecopetrol S.A. has missed Wall Street's EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reported quarters — a mixed record worth weighing. Reported results have landed about 38723.2% above estimates on average.

Ecopetrol S.A.'s Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — signaling solid underlying fundamentals. Its Altman Z-Score of 1.37 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.

Return on equity for Ecopetrol S.A. stands at 10.8%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 3.0%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. EC trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 9.16, below the Energy sector average of ~15.80x. Its free cash flow yield is 17.0%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 1.26 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is 8.8%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Valuation Context

Valued at $36.5B, EC is classified as a large-cap stock. Analyst price targets span from $16.00 to $16.00, with a consensus of $16.00. At the current price of $17.75, that implies roughly 10% downside from the consensus target. Relative to its peer group, EC's quantitative score of 72/100 is roughly in line with the peer average of 68/100.

EC Revenue & Earnings Trend

In Q2 FY2026, EC generated $12.09B in top-line revenue, marking a sequential increase of 30.8%. The company recorded net income of $1.82B, with diluted EPS of $0.89. Quarter-over-quarter revenue has been mixed, typical for a large-cap company operating in Energy. Across the four most recent quarters, EC averaged $0.50 in diluted EPS.

Company Profile

Ecopetrol S.A. operates in the Oil & Gas Integrated industry within the Energy sector. It is headquartered in Bogotá, CO. The company is led by CEO Juan Carlos Hurtado Parra. EC has traded publicly since 2008.

EC Financials

EC Latest News

EC Analyst Consensus

EC MoonshotScore

Common Questions About EC (Energy)

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

Official Resources