Greif Inc. (GEF) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Greif Inc. (GEF) Consumer Business Overview

Greif, Inc., founded in 1877, is a global industrial packaging leader, providing steel, plastic, and fiber drums, containerboard, and land management services. With a $3.80B market cap and a 3.26% dividend yield, Greif serves diverse sectors, including chemicals, food, and automotive, positioning it as a key player in the consumer cyclical market.

What Is the Investment Thesis for GEF?

With a market capitalization of $3.80B and a P/E ratio of 4.75, the company demonstrates solid financial performance. The dividend yield of 3.26% offers an attractive income stream for investors. Key growth catalysts include expansion in emerging markets and increased demand for sustainable packaging solutions. Potential risks include fluctuations in raw material prices and economic downturns affecting industrial production. The company's ability to maintain a healthy profit margin of 29.0% and gross margin of 22.6% underscores its operational efficiency. Greif's beta of 0.93 indicates relatively low volatility compared to the broader market.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

GEF Key Highlights

Market Cap of $3.80B reflects Greif's significant presence in the industrial packaging market.

• P/E ratio of 4.75 indicates that the stock may be undervalued compared to its earnings.
• Profit Margin of 29.0% demonstrates strong profitability and efficient cost management.
• Gross Margin of 22.6% highlights the company's ability to maintain profitability after accounting for the cost of goods sold.
• Dividend Yield of 3.26% provides an attractive income stream for investors.

Who Are GEF's Competitors?

GEF is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are GEF's Key Strengths?

Diversified product portfolio across industrial packaging and land management.

• Global presence with operations in multiple regions.
• Strong customer relationships with established players in diverse industries.
• Integrated business model spanning manufacturing, services, and land management.

What Are GEF's Weaknesses?

Exposure to fluctuations in raw material prices.

• Dependence on economic cycles affecting industrial production.
• Potential environmental liabilities related to land management activities.
• Limited pricing power in certain competitive markets.

What Could Drive GEF Stock Higher?

Expansion of sustainable packaging product lines to meet growing demand.

• Strategic acquisitions to enhance market position and product offerings.
• Potential new regulations favoring sustainable packaging solutions by Q4 2026.
• Operational efficiencies driving improved profitability and margins.

What Are the Key Risks for GEF?

Insider selling — insiders were net sellers of roughly $9.2M recently.

• Fluctuations in raw material prices impacting profitability.
• Economic downturns reducing industrial production and demand.
• Intense competition from other packaging companies.
• Regulatory changes impacting packaging materials and land management practices.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for GEF?

• Growth opportunity 1: Expansion in Emerging Markets: Greif can capitalize on the growing industrial activity in emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Latin America. These regions are experiencing rapid industrialization, leading to increased demand for industrial packaging solutions. By establishing or expanding operations in these markets, Greif can tap into new revenue streams and diversify its geographic footprint. The market size for industrial packaging in emerging markets is projected to reach $XX billion by 2030, offering significant growth potential.
• Growth opportunity 2: Sustainable Packaging Solutions: The increasing focus on sustainability presents a significant growth opportunity for Greif. Companies are seeking eco-friendly packaging solutions to reduce their environmental impact. Greif can invest in developing and marketing sustainable packaging products, such as recycled and biodegradable materials. The market for sustainable packaging is estimated to reach $YY billion by 2028, driven by consumer demand and regulatory pressures.
• Growth opportunity 3: Strategic Acquisitions: Greif can pursue strategic acquisitions to expand its product portfolio, geographic reach, and market share. By acquiring complementary businesses, the company can enhance its competitive position and create synergies. Potential acquisition targets include companies specializing in niche packaging solutions or those with a strong presence in specific geographic regions. The timeline for strategic acquisitions is ongoing, with potential deals assessed on a case-by-case basis.
• Growth opportunity 4: Enhanced Service Offerings: Greif can expand its service offerings to provide value-added solutions to its customers. This includes services such as container life cycle management, filling, logistics, and warehousing. By offering a comprehensive suite of services, Greif can strengthen its customer relationships and generate additional revenue streams. The market for industrial packaging services is estimated to be $ZZ billion, with a steady growth rate driven by the increasing complexity of supply chains.
• Growth opportunity 5: Innovation in Packaging Technology: Investing in research and development to create innovative packaging technologies can provide Greif with a competitive edge. This includes developing new materials, designs, and functionalities that improve the performance and sustainability of its products. For example, Greif could explore the use of nanotechnology to enhance the barrier properties of its packaging materials. The timeline for realizing the benefits of innovation in packaging technology is long-term, with ongoing investments in R&D.

What Are GEF's Competitive Advantages?

• Diversified product portfolio across multiple packaging types.
• Global presence with operations in various regions.
• Integrated business model spanning manufacturing, services, and land management.
• Long-standing customer relationships with established players in diverse industries.

What Does GEF Do?

Greif, Inc., established in 1877 and headquartered in Delaware, Ohio, is a global leader in industrial packaging products and services. Originally founded as Greif Bros. Corporation, the company evolved into Greif, Inc. in 2001, expanding its offerings and global reach. The company operates through three primary segments: Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging & Services, and Land Management. The Global Industrial Packaging segment produces and sells a wide array of industrial packaging solutions, including steel, fiber, and plastic drums, rigid and flexible intermediate bulk containers, and closure systems. These products cater to industries such as chemicals, paints, food and beverage, and pharmaceuticals. The Paper Packaging & Services segment focuses on producing and selling containerboard, corrugated sheets and containers, and other specialty products to the packaging, automotive, food, and building products markets. The Land Management segment manages approximately 175,000 acres of timber properties in the southeastern United States as of October 31, 2021, engaging in timber harvesting, regeneration, and the sale of timberland. Greif’s comprehensive product portfolio and diverse service offerings enable it to serve a broad range of industries worldwide, maintaining a significant presence in the industrial packaging market.

What Products and Services Does GEF Offer?

• Produces and sells steel, fiber, and plastic drums.
• Offers rigid and flexible intermediate bulk containers.
• Provides closure systems for industrial packaging products.
• Supplies transit protection products and water bottles.
• Remanufactures and reconditions industrial containers.
• Offers container life cycle management services.
• Engages in timber harvesting and regeneration.
• Sells timberland and special use properties.

How Does GEF Make Money?

• Manufacturing and selling industrial packaging products.
• Providing packaging-related services such as filling and logistics.
• Managing and selling timber properties.
• Generating revenue through three segments: Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging & Services, and Land Management.

What Industry Does GEF Operate In?

Greif, Inc. operates in the packaging and containers industry, a segment of the broader consumer cyclical sector. The industry is influenced by economic cycles, raw material prices, and sustainability trends. The competitive landscape includes companies like Sonoco Products Company (SON) and Dana Incorporated (DAN). Demand for industrial packaging is driven by manufacturing activity, consumer spending, and international trade. The increasing focus on sustainable packaging solutions presents both challenges and opportunities for companies in this sector. Greif's diversified product portfolio and global presence position it to capitalize on these trends.

Who Are GEF's Key Customers?

• Chemical companies requiring industrial containers.
• Food and beverage companies needing packaging solutions.
• Automotive companies using corrugated containers.
• Building product manufacturers utilizing paperboard and packaging.

Company Profile

Greif Inc. operates in the Packaging & Containers industry within the Consumer Cyclical sector. It is headquartered in Delaware, US. The company is led by CEO Ole G. Rosgaard. GEF has traded publicly since 1996.

Greif Inc. Financial Trajectory

Greif Inc. (GEF) reported $1.17B in revenue for Q3 FY2026, reflecting 8.7% growth compared to the prior quarter. The company recorded net income of $77.8M, with diluted EPS of $1.35. Revenue has increased across the last three reported quarters, suggesting sustained momentum for this mid-cap Consumer Cyclical company. Across the four most recent quarters, GEF averaged $4.92 in diluted EPS.

How Greif Inc. Is Valued

Greif Inc. carries a market capitalization of $3.80B, placing it in the mid-cap category. Analyst price targets span from $74.00 to $97.00, with a consensus of $85.50. At the current price of $82.27, that implies approximately 4% upside potential. Relative to its peer group, GEF's quantitative score of 42/100 is below the peer average of 62/100.

Return on equity for Greif Inc. stands at 33.4%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 17.3%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. GEF trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 4.75, below the Consumer Cyclical sector average of ~32.70x. Its free cash flow yield is -5.9%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 1.29 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is 20.5%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

Greif Inc.'s Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — a middling fundamental profile. Its Altman Z-Score of 2.56 places it in the grey zone, a middle ground that warrants monitoring.

Greif Inc. has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reported quarters — more hits than misses. Reported results have landed about 11.4% below estimates on average.

Over the past six months, Greif Inc. insiders filed 19 SEC Form 4 transactions — 15 sales and 4 purchases. On net that is roughly 105K shares disposed (about $9.2M), a signal worth weighing alongside the fundamentals.

GEF Financials

GEF Latest News

GEF Analyst Consensus

GEF MoonshotScore

GEF Consumer Cyclical Stock FAQ

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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