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USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) Stock Analysis

Educational signal · not a buy or sell recommendation · How to read this

$16.04 -$1.02 (-5.98%) |Weak · 15
USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) bottom line: Bearish Lean — our Council read (33/100) and AI Score (15/100) broadly agree. Strongest signal: Izzy Englander bullish · Biggest watch-out: Growth Durability weak.Educational signal, not a buy or sell recommendation. Compare sector peers → · Read the method →
MCap: $2.13B| Vol: 16.99M| Target: $34.57 (+115.5%) (Sep 5, 2026) (estimate, not advice)| 52-wk range: $11.45 – $43.98

Market cap $2.13B is the value of all shares combined. Beta 1.37: the stock has moved about 37% more than the S&P 500.

Data from FMP · Methodology

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Machine-generated analysis by Stock Expert AI — model gemini-2.0-flash, generated May 10, 2026. Editorial oversight is systemic, not page-by-page. Editorially accountable: Sedat ANAK, Founder and Editor-in-Chief. Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR

Quick Answer

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) trades at $16.04 with MoonshotScore 15/100 (Grade F). USA Rare Earth, Inc. is focused on developing a vertically integrated rare earth magnet supply chain within the United States. Market cap: $2.13B, Sector: Basic materials.

Price as of Sep 11, 2026 · Last analyzed: May 10, 2026
USA Rare Earth, Inc. is focused on developing a vertically integrated rare earth magnet supply chain within the United States. The company aims to serve various sectors, including defense, automotive, and electronics, by establishing a domestic source for NdFeB magnets.

USAR stock analysis for 2026: Analysts have set a consensus price target of $34.57 for USA Rare Earth, Inc., suggesting 115.5% upside from the current price of $16.04. The AI MoonshotScore is 15/100, in the Weak band (below 45) — a research signal, not a recommendation. Key factors: analyst coverage, AI-driven quantitative scoring.

Watch the USAR film Every key number, told as a short cinematic story — just press play. ~2 min

These figures come from statements filed 12 months ago — the most recent this company has published.

Council Score · Weighted Average of 3 Disciplines
Bearish Lean 33/100 · D

USAR: 2/3 scored disciplines lean bearish. Dominant signal: Growth Durability weak.

How is this calculated? →
MoonshotScore · Five-pillar engine · 15/100
Business Quality
Negative Is this a genuinely good business?
Financial Safety
Weak Could this blow up on me?
Valuation
Negative Am I paying a fair price?
Growth Durability
Negative Is the growth real and likely to last?
Momentum
Weak Is the market already moving on this?

Strongest side: Financial Safety (3/10, Weak). Weakest side: Growth Durability (0/10, Negative).

Legends Council · 5 Legends + Moon AI

AI simulations built from the named investors' published principles. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or the opinion of these individuals. How these lenses are built

Dalio-style lens (simulated)Ray Dalio
Favorable read
Griffin-style lens (simulated)Ken Griffin
Neutral read
Simons-style lens (simulated)Jim Simons
Neutral read
Englander-style lens (simulated)Izzy Englander
Favorable read
Klarman-style lens (simulated)Seth Klarman
Unfavorable read
Moon AI lens (model)
Unfavorable read
Munger's Mindset · Balance Sheet & Valuation
Financial Health
Negative
Margin of Safety
Undervalued
Council Score · Weighted Average of 3 Disciplines · See tabs for details →
The lenses are modelled on the published principles of the investors named. We are not affiliated with them, they have not endorsed this, and it is not their opinion of this stock.

Why this analysis is different

  • A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
  • An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
  • Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) Materials & Commodity Exposure

CEOBarbara W. Humpton
Employees132
HeadquartersNew York City, NY, US
IPO Year2025

USA Rare Earth, Inc. is a magnet manufacturing company focused on establishing a domestic supply chain for rare earth magnets. Developing a NdFeB magnet manufacturing, minerals supply, extraction, and processing plant, USAR aims to serve critical industries like defense, automotive, and electronics, reducing reliance on foreign sources.

Data Provenance | Financial Data Quantitative Analysis NASDAQ Analysis: May 10, 2026

What Is the Investment Thesis for USAR?

AI-written as of May 10, 2026 — figures and tone reflect the data available then, not today's score.

The company's vertically integrated approach, encompassing mining, processing, and manufacturing, offers a competitive advantage by ensuring supply chain security and cost control. With a market capitalization of $2.13B, USAR is positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy. Key catalysts include the ongoing development of its NdFeB magnet manufacturing plant and potential government support for domestic rare earth production. However, the company's negative profit margin of -47.8% indicates ongoing investment and development costs, representing a risk factor. The company's beta of 1.37 suggests higher volatility compared to the broader market.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

USAR Key Highlights

AI-written as of May 10, 2026 — figures and tone reflect the data available then, not today's score.

Market Cap of $2.13B reflects investor confidence in the company's potential within the rare earth magnet market.

  • Gross Margin of 81.2% indicates strong pricing power and efficient production processes once the manufacturing plant is fully operational.
  • Negative Profit Margin of -47.8% reflects the current investment phase as the company develops its infrastructure and scales up operations.
  • Beta of 1.37 suggests higher volatility compared to the broader market, typical for growth-oriented companies in emerging sectors.
  • No Dividend Yield reflects the company's focus on reinvesting earnings to fund growth initiatives and expand its manufacturing capabilities.

Who Are USAR's Competitors?

USAR is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

Company Price Change Market Cap MoonshotScore
NEXA Nexa Resources S.A. $13.14 -7.79% $1.74B 795-pillar
DETRF Deterra Royalties Limited $3.18 +0.54% $1.68B 479-signal
ATUSF Altius Minerals Corporation $46.52 -3.53% $2.73B 519-signal
ERMAF Eramet S.a. $55.45 0.00% $1.58B 449-signal
AFMJF Alphamin Resources Corp. $1.05 -1.41% $1.35B 499-signal
OMZNF Osisko Metals Incorporated $1.20 -2.36% $1.07B 499-signal
CMP Compass Minerals International, Inc. $25.07 -2.18% $1.05B 565-pillar
NTCPF NorthIsle Copper and Gold Inc. $3.05 -4.69% $1.01B 489-signal

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance This table mixes two scoring engines — compare a number only with others carrying the same tag.

What Are USAR's Key Strengths?

Vertically integrated supply chain

  • Domestic production capabilities
  • Strategic importance to key industries
  • High gross margin (81.2%)

What Are USAR's Weaknesses?

Negative profit margin (-47.8%)

  • Reliance on successful development of manufacturing plant
  • Limited operational history
  • Small number of employees (30)

What Could Drive USAR Stock Higher?

Completion of NdFeB magnet manufacturing plant.

  • Government support for domestic rare earth production.
  • Increasing demand for rare earth magnets in electric vehicles.
  • Expansion of renewable energy infrastructure.

What Are the Key Risks for USAR?

Negative return on equity (-23.4%) — the business is not currently generating profit on shareholder capital.

  • Inconsistent delivery — missed Wall Street EPS estimates in 4 of the last 6 reported quarters.
  • Weak fundamentals — a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags soft profitability, leverage or efficiency.
  • Competition from established rare earth magnet producers.
  • Fluctuations in rare earth mineral prices.
  • Geopolitical risks affecting supply chains.
  • Negative profit margin due to development costs.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for USAR?

  • Electric Vehicle Market: The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) represents a significant growth opportunity for USA Rare Earth. NdFeB magnets are essential components in EV motors, and the demand for EVs is projected to grow rapidly in the coming years. As the EV market expands, the demand for rare earth magnets will increase, providing a substantial market for USAR's products.
  • Renewable Energy Sector: Wind turbines also rely heavily on NdFeB magnets for efficient energy generation. The global transition to renewable energy sources is driving increased investments in wind power, creating a growing demand for rare earth magnets. USAR can capitalize on this trend by supplying magnets to wind turbine manufacturers, contributing to the expansion of renewable energy infrastructure. Government incentives and policies supporting renewable energy further enhance this growth opportunity.
  • Defense Industry Applications: Rare earth magnets are critical components in various defense systems, including missile guidance systems, radar, and communication equipment. The defense industry requires a secure and reliable supply of these materials, making domestic suppliers like USA Rare Earth strategically important. Increasing defense spending and the focus on advanced military technologies will drive demand for rare earth magnets in this sector.
  • Consumer Electronics Market: NdFeB magnets are used in a wide range of consumer electronics, including smartphones, laptops, and audio equipment. The continued growth of the consumer electronics market, driven by innovation and increasing demand for advanced features, will support demand for rare earth magnets. USAR can target this market by supplying magnets to consumer electronics manufacturers, leveraging its domestic production capabilities.
  • Medical Device Industry: Rare earth magnets are utilized in medical devices such as MRI machines and surgical instruments. The increasing demand for advanced medical technologies and the growing healthcare industry will drive demand for rare earth magnets in this sector. USAR can partner with medical device manufacturers to supply magnets for these critical applications, contributing to advancements in healthcare.

What Are USAR's Competitive Advantages?

  • Vertically integrated supply chain provides cost control and security.
  • Domestic production reduces reliance on foreign sources.
  • Strategic importance to defense and critical industries.
  • Proprietary processing technologies for rare earth minerals.

What Does USAR Do?

USA Rare Earth, Inc. is dedicated to creating a fully integrated domestic supply chain for rare earth magnets, essential components in various high-tech and industrial applications. Founded with the vision of reducing U.S. dependence on foreign sources for these critical materials, the company is developing a comprehensive ecosystem that spans from mineral extraction to magnet manufacturing. The company's primary focus is on neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets, known for their high strength and use in electric vehicles, wind turbines, defense systems, and consumer electronics. USAR's operations encompass the entire value chain, including the mining and processing of rare earth minerals, the production of NdFeB alloys, and the manufacturing of finished magnets. By establishing a vertically integrated operation, USA Rare Earth aims to ensure a secure and reliable supply of rare earth magnets for U.S. industries. The company targets key sectors such as defense, automotive, aviation, industrial, medical, and consumer electronics, positioning itself as a strategic supplier to industries vital to national security and economic growth. Headquartered in New York City, USA Rare Earth is strategically located to serve its target markets across the United States.

What Products and Services Does USAR Offer?

  • Develops a NdFeB magnet manufacturing plant.
  • Engages in minerals supply chain activities.
  • Focuses on extraction of rare earth elements.
  • Processes rare earth minerals into usable materials.
  • Manufactures high-performance NdFeB magnets.
  • Serves the defense industry with critical components.
  • Supplies magnets for the automotive sector, including electric vehicles.
  • Provides materials for the aviation, industrial, medical, and consumer electronics industries.

How Does USAR Make Money?

  • Vertically integrated rare earth magnet supply chain.
  • Extraction and processing of rare earth minerals.
  • Manufacturing of NdFeB magnets.
  • Sales to defense, automotive, and electronics industries.

What Industry Does USAR Operate In?

USA Rare Earth operates within the industrial materials sector, specifically focusing on rare earth magnets. The market for rare earth magnets is driven by the increasing demand for electric vehicles, renewable energy technologies, and advanced electronics. The industry is characterized by a high degree of concentration, with a significant portion of the global supply originating from China. This concentration poses risks to supply chain security and has spurred efforts to diversify sourcing. USA Rare Earth aims to address this challenge by establishing a domestic supply chain, positioning itself to capture a share of the growing market and reduce reliance on foreign sources.

Who Are USAR's Key Customers?

  • Defense contractors requiring high-performance magnets.
  • Automotive manufacturers, particularly electric vehicle producers.
  • Aviation companies needing magnets for aircraft systems.
  • Industrial manufacturers using magnets in various applications.
  • Medical device companies incorporating magnets into their products.
  • Consumer electronics companies utilizing magnets in their devices.
Model self-rating on this text: 67% (not a measure of the evidence) Updated: May 10, 2026

Research confidence

High 100/100

Broad, current evidence sits behind this analysis.

  • Scored on 94% of our measures
  • Price is current
  • Latest filing 32 days ago
  • Covered by analysts

Why 15?

Measured against companies in the same sector. The figures below are the factor contributions the scoring engine itself produced.

What is helping

  • +0.60 Short-term liquidity (Financial Strength)
  • +0.19 Price to book (Valuation)
  • +0.15 Debt to equity (Financial Strength)

What is holding it back

  • -0.78 Gross margin (Business Quality)
  • -0.78 Operating margin (Business Quality)
  • -0.78 Net margin (Business Quality)

Risk penalties applied

  • -2.00 Loss-making with negative retained earnings

Contribution = how far the company sits from its sector on that measure, weighted by how much the pillar counts. Not investment advice. How the score is built →

MoonshotScore History

Recorded daily since 2026-08-23 · 19 snapshots

2026-08-23 12
2026-08-26 12
2026-08-29 12
2026-09-01 15
2026-09-04 15
2026-09-07 15
2026-09-10 15

What changed?

The grade moved from 12 to 15 (+3).

What moved it up or down:

  • +8 Valuation
  • +4 Financial Safety
  • +2 Business Quality

Over the same 18 days the stock moved -11.4%.

USA Rare Earth, Inc. Financial Trajectory

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) reported $5.8M in revenue for Q2 FY2026, reflecting 2.2% growth compared to the prior quarter. The company recorded a net loss of $10.3M, with diluted EPS of $-0.05. Revenue has increased across the last three reported quarters, suggesting sustained momentum for this mid-cap Basic Materials company. Across the four most recent quarters, USAR averaged $-0.56 in diluted EPS.

Company Profile

USA Rare Earth, Inc. operates in the Industrial Materials industry within the Basic Materials sector. It is headquartered in Stillwater, US. The company is led by CEO Barbara W. Humpton. USAR has traded publicly since 2025.

How USA Rare Earth, Inc. Is Valued

USA Rare Earth, Inc. carries a market capitalization of $2.13B, placing it in the mid-cap category. Analyst price targets span from $21.00 to $45.00, with a consensus of $34.57. At the current price of $16.04, that implies approximately 116% upside potential. Relative to its peer group, USAR's quantitative score of 15/100 is below the peer average of 53/100.

ROE -23%

Key Financial Metrics

Return on equity for USA Rare Earth, Inc. stands at -23.4%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is -9.5%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. Its free cash flow yield is -11.4%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 32.79 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is -8.9%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

F-Score 3/9

Financial Health

USA Rare Earth, Inc.'s Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — flagging fundamental weakness worth scrutiny. Its Altman Z-Score of 3.11 places it in the safe zone, indicating low near-term bankruptcy risk.

2/6 beats

Earnings Track Record

USA Rare Earth, Inc. has missed Wall Street's EPS estimate in 4 of its last 6 reported quarters — a mixed record worth weighing. Reported results have landed about 297.9% below estimates on average.

Net buying

Insider Activity

Over the past six months, USA Rare Earth, Inc. insiders filed 50 SEC Form 4 transactions — 15 sales and 35 purchases. On net that is roughly 807K shares acquired (about $4.1M) — insiders putting money in tends to read as conviction.

USAR Financials

Fundamental Snapshot

Free Cash Flow Growth (FY)
-436.4%
Return on Equity (TTM)
-23.4%
Current Ratio
32.8

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis · FY 2025

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

  • Vertically integrated supply chain
  • Domestic production capabilities
  • Strategic importance to key industries
  • High gross margin (81.2%)

Bear Case

  • Negative profit margin (-47.8%)
  • Reliance on successful development of manufacturing plant
  • Limited operational history
  • Small number of employees (30)

AI-generated arguments based on insider flow, news sentiment and technicals — not financial advice · September 2026

Recent Quarterly Results

Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q2 FY2026 $6M -$10M -$0.05
Q1 FY2026 $6M -$67M -$0.34
Q4 FY2025 $2M -$50M -$0.34
Q3 FY2025 $0 -$157M -$1.53

Q2 FY2026 · filed 10 Aug 2026 · SEC EDGAR →

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

USAR Latest News

USAR Analyst Consensus

Consensus Rating

Aggregated Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations collected by Financial Modeling Prep for USAR.

Price Targets

Low
$21.00
Consensus
$34.57
High
$45.00

Median: $35.00 (+115.5% from current price)

Source: FMP analyst consensus · as of Sep 5, 2026 · an estimate, not advice

USAR MoonshotScore

15/100

What does this score mean?

MoonshotScore is Stock Expert AI's proprietary 0-100 research rating, not a buy or sell recommendation. USAR scores 15/100 (Grade F): the number comes from the five-pillar engine (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum), re-ranked daily against sector peers.

Latest USA Rare Earth, Inc. Analysis

Leadership: Barbara W. Humpton

CEO

Barbara W. Humpton serves as the CEO of USA Rare Earth, Inc. Her background includes extensive experience in management and strategic leadership. She is responsible for overseeing the development of the company's rare earth magnet manufacturing, minerals supply, extraction, and processing plant. Humpton's role involves managing the company's operations and driving its strategic vision.

Track Record: As CEO, Barbara W. Humpton is currently focused on establishing USA Rare Earth as a key player in the domestic rare earth magnet supply chain. Her leadership is centered on developing the company's manufacturing capabilities and securing strategic partnerships. She manages 30 employees.

What Investors Ask About USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) — Basic Materials

What does the AI Score mean for USAR?

USAR holds an AI Score of 15/100 (Grade: F). This is an educational research signal, not a buy or sell recommendation. The number comes from the five-pillar engine (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum), re-ranked daily against sector peers.

Is USAR a good stock?

Stock Expert AI does not rate USAR buy, sell or hold. USA Rare Earth, Inc. carries a MoonshotScore of 15/100 on the five-pillar engine, a research rating against its peers. Whether it fits is your call: check what it sells, whether it earns, what the price assumes, and what would prove you wrong.

What does USA Rare Earth Inc do?

USA Rare Earth, Inc. is focused on establishing a vertically integrated supply chain for rare earth magnets within the United States.

What do analysts say about USAR stock?

As of 2026-05-10, there is limited analyst coverage specifically for USA Rare Earth Inc. due to its stage of development and unique market position.

What are the key factors to evaluate for USAR?

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) holds a MoonshotScore of 15/100 (low). Analysts target $34.57 (+116%). The company's beta of 1.37 suggests higher volatility compared to the broader market. Not financial advice.

How frequently does USAR data refresh on this page?

USAR's price was last updated on Sep 11, 2026 and refreshes on page view during U.S. market hours; the quote is a provider snapshot, not an exchange feed. Fundamentals update after quarterly filings; the MoonshotScore recalculates nightly; news aggregates continuously.

What has driven USAR's recent stock price performance?

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) moves on earnings results, analyst revisions, sector rotation, and market sentiment. Notable catalyst: Vertically integrated supply chain. See the News tab for the latest drivers. Past performance does not predict future results.

Should investors consider USAR overvalued or undervalued right now?

USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) has no trailing P/E available here, so lean on price-to-sales and cash flow in the Financials tab. Analysts target $34.57 (+116%) — upside seen. Compare P/E, P/S, and EV/EBITDA against sector peers for a full view.

Can I buy fractional shares of USAR?

Yes, most major brokerages offer fractional shares of USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR) with no minimum purchase requirement. This means you can invest any dollar amount regardless of the share price. Check your brokerage platform for specific terms, fees, and fractional share availability.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

Official Resources

Price as of Analysis updated MoonshotScore as of
Data Sources & Methodology
Market data powered by Financial Modeling Prep & Yahoo Finance. AI analysis by Stock Expert AI proprietary algorithms. Technical indicators via industry-standard calculations. Last updated: .
Data Provenance
Sources: Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) — Primary · Yahoo Finance — Fallback · Alpaca — Tertiary
Last fetched:
Cache TTL: Quote 5min · Profile 7d · Financials 7d · Insider 48h
How we use AI: Numbers are pulled directly from FMP & Yahoo Finance — our AI writes the analysis, it never edits the figures.
Data provided as-is for educational purposes. Not financial advice. Methodology

Data provided for informational purposes only.

Analysis Notes
  • Financial data is based on limited information.
  • Future performance depends on successful execution of strategic plans.
Data Sources
Financial Modeling Prep (FMP)Stock Expert AI proprietary analysis

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