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Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)

$102.20 +$3.65 (+3.70%) |CouncilBUY · 59 · B
Signals are mixed — the Council read leans BUY (59/100) while the AI fundamental score is 47/100 (grade C); the two lenses disagree, so weigh the breakdown below.
MCap: $35.71B| P/E Ratio: 6.7| Vol: 2.24M| Target: $104.38 (+2.1%)| 52-wk range: $82.45 – $103.39
Data from FMP · Methodology

For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Analysis by Sedat ANAK, Founder & Editor-in-Chief | AI-powered analysis. Data sourced from SEC filings and institutional-grade financial providers. Editorially reviewed. Not financial advice.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) trades at $102.20 with AI Score 47/100 (Grade C). Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a global provider of insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products. Market cap: $35.71B, Sector: Financial services.

Price live · AI analysis from May 8, 2026
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a global provider of insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage, offering a diverse range of risk management solutions worldwide.

ACGL stock analysis for 2026: Analysts have set a consensus price target of $104.38 for Arch Capital Group Ltd., suggesting 2.1% upside from the current price of $102.20. The AI MoonshotScore is 47/100, indicating a neutral outlook. Key factors: analyst coverage, AI-driven quantitative scoring.

Council Score · Weighted Average of 3 Disciplines
BUY 59/100 · B

ACGL: 1/2 perspectives are bullish.

How is this calculated? →
Munger's Mindset · Balance Sheet & Valuation
Financial Health
Strong
Margin of Safety
Undervalued
Council Score · 8 perspectives · See tabs for details →

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Financial Services Profile

CEONicolas Alain Emmanuel Papadopoulo
Employees7200
HeadquartersPembroke, BM
IPO Year1995

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a global financial services firm providing insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage solutions. With a diversified product portfolio and a strong broker network, ACGL focuses on underwriting expertise and risk management, positioning itself as a key player in the global insurance market with a $35.71B market cap.

Data Provenance | Financial Data Quantitative Analysis NASDAQ Analysis: May 8, 2026

What Is the Investment Thesis for ACGL?

Arch Capital Group presents a compelling investment case based on its diversified business model and underwriting discipline. The company's strong profitability, indicated by a 24.7% profit margin, reflects effective risk management and operational efficiency. With a P/E ratio of 6.7, ACGL appears undervalued compared to its peers. Growth catalysts include expanding its presence in emerging markets and capitalizing on increasing demand for specialty insurance products. Potential risks include exposure to large-scale catastrophic events and fluctuations in interest rates, which could impact investment income. The company's low beta of 0.36 suggests lower volatility compared to the broader market.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

ACGL Key Highlights

  • Market capitalization of $35.71B, reflecting substantial investor confidence.
  • P/E ratio of 6.7, indicating a potentially undervalued stock relative to earnings.
  • Profit margin of 24.7%, showcasing strong profitability and efficient operations.
  • Gross margin of 42.8%, demonstrating effective cost management and pricing strategies.
  • Beta of 0.36, suggesting lower volatility compared to the overall market.

Who Are ACGL's Competitors?

ACGL is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

Company Price Change Market Cap AI Score
AIG American International Group, I $79.39 +3.66% $42.09B 67
STT State Street Corporation $170.69 +0.60% $47.24B 34
KB KB Financial Group Inc. $109.35 +6.60% $38.79B 57
SLF Sun Life Financial Inc. $79.65 +1.01% $44.13B 54
HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. $137.85 +2.96% $37.79B 96
AEGOF Aegon N.V. $8.39 +0.00% $12.69B 66
AIVAF Aviva plc $8.45 +0.00% $25.28B 64
AVVIY Aviva plc $17.84 +2.71% $26.68B 64

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are ACGL's Key Strengths?

  • Strong underwriting expertise.
  • Diversified product portfolio.
  • Efficient capital management.
  • Established broker network.

What Are ACGL's Weaknesses?

  • Exposure to large-scale catastrophic events.
  • Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations.
  • Reliance on brokers for distribution.
  • Geographic concentration in certain markets.

What Could Drive ACGL Stock Higher?

  • Expansion into new geographic markets, particularly in Asia and Latin America.
  • Development and launch of new specialty insurance products to meet evolving customer needs.
  • Potential acquisitions of complementary businesses to expand product offerings and market share.
  • Leveraging technology and data analytics to improve underwriting processes and risk management capabilities.

What Are the Key Risks for ACGL?

  • Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 1.09 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).
  • Large-scale catastrophic events, such as hurricanes and earthquakes, could result in significant losses.
  • Fluctuations in interest rates could impact investment income and profitability.
  • Intense competition in the insurance and reinsurance industries could put pressure on pricing and margins.
  • Changes in regulations could increase compliance costs and impact business operations.
  • Cybersecurity risks could lead to data breaches and reputational damage.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for ACGL?

  • Expansion in Emerging Markets: Arch Capital has the opportunity to expand its presence in emerging markets, where insurance penetration is relatively low. By tailoring its products to meet the specific needs of these markets, ACGL can tap into a significant growth opportunity. The emerging markets insurance sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7-9% over the next five years, presenting a substantial market for ACGL to capture.
  • Increased Demand for Specialty Insurance: The demand for specialty insurance products, such as cyber liability and environmental risk insurance, is increasing due to evolving risks and regulations. Arch Capital can capitalize on this trend by developing innovative specialty insurance solutions. The global specialty insurance market is estimated to reach $125 billion by 2028, offering a significant growth avenue for ACGL.
  • Strategic Acquisitions: Arch Capital can pursue strategic acquisitions to expand its product offerings and geographic reach. By acquiring companies with complementary businesses, ACGL can enhance its competitive position and accelerate growth. The insurance industry is consolidating, with M&A activity expected to remain robust in the coming years, providing ACGL with potential acquisition targets.
  • Leveraging Technology and Data Analytics: Arch Capital can leverage technology and data analytics to improve its underwriting processes and risk management capabilities. By using data analytics to identify and assess risks more accurately, ACGL can enhance its profitability and competitive advantage. The adoption of AI and machine learning in the insurance industry is expected to increase significantly over the next few years.
  • Development of Innovative Mortgage Insurance Products: With fluctuations in the housing market, Arch Capital can develop innovative mortgage insurance products to cater to evolving consumer needs. This includes products tailored for first-time homebuyers and those with non-traditional income sources. The mortgage insurance market is expected to grow as homeownership rates increase, presenting a growth opportunity for ACGL's Mortgage segment.

What Opportunities Does ACGL Have?

  • Expansion in emerging markets.
  • Increased demand for specialty insurance.
  • Strategic acquisitions.
  • Leveraging technology and data analytics.

What Threats Does ACGL Face?

  • Intense competition.
  • Evolving regulatory landscape.
  • Economic downturns.
  • Cybersecurity risks.

What Are ACGL's Competitive Advantages?

  • Underwriting Expertise: Strong underwriting capabilities enable Arch Capital to accurately assess and price risk.
  • Diversified Product Portfolio: A wide range of insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage products reduces reliance on any single market segment.
  • Strong Broker Network: Established relationships with independent retail and wholesale brokers provide access to a broad customer base.
  • Efficient Capital Management: Effective capital allocation and risk management contribute to consistent profitability.

What Does ACGL Do?

Arch Capital Group Ltd., incorporated in 1995 and based in Pembroke, Bermuda, is a global provider of insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance solutions. The company operates through three primary segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers a wide array of products, including primary and excess casualty coverages, directors' and officers' liability, property, energy, marine, and aviation insurance. These products are distributed through a network of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. The Reinsurance segment provides casualty reinsurance, marine and aviation reinsurance, and property reinsurance, among other products, marketed through brokers. The Mortgage segment offers direct mortgage insurance and mortgage reinsurance. Arch Capital has strategically expanded its offerings and geographic reach over the years to become a significant player in the global risk management market. The company's underwriting expertise and disciplined approach to risk assessment have contributed to its consistent profitability and growth. With 7,200 employees, Arch Capital continues to focus on innovation and customer service to maintain its competitive edge.

What Products and Services Does ACGL Offer?

  • Provides primary and excess casualty coverages.
  • Offers loss sensitive primary casualty insurance programs.
  • Provides collateral protection, debt cancellation, and service contract reimbursement products.
  • Offers directors' and officers' liability insurance.
  • Provides reinsurance for casualty, marine, aviation, and property exposures.
  • Offers direct mortgage insurance and mortgage reinsurance.
  • Provides risk management solutions.

How Does ACGL Make Money?

  • Underwriting insurance and reinsurance policies.
  • Generating premiums from these policies.
  • Investing premiums to generate investment income.
  • Managing risk through underwriting expertise and diversification.

What Industry Does ACGL Operate In?

Arch Capital Group operates in the diversified insurance industry, which is characterized by intense competition and evolving regulatory landscapes. The industry is experiencing growth driven by increasing awareness of risk management and the need for specialized insurance products. Key competitors include American International Group, I (AIG) and The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG). Arch Capital differentiates itself through its underwriting expertise and diversified product offerings. The global insurance market is projected to continue growing, driven by factors such as urbanization, climate change, and technological advancements.

Who Are ACGL's Key Customers?

  • Businesses seeking primary and excess casualty insurance.
  • Individuals seeking mortgage insurance.
  • Other insurance companies seeking reinsurance.
  • Brokers and agents who distribute Arch Capital's products.
AI Confidence: 73% Updated: May 8, 2026

Arch Capital Group Ltd. Financial Trajectory

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) reported $4.36B in revenue for Q1 2026, a decline of 19.0% compared to the prior quarter. The company recorded net income of $1.05B, with diluted EPS of $2.91. Quarter-over-quarter revenue has been mixed, typical for a large-cap company operating in Financial Services. Across the four most recent quarters, ACGL averaged $3.26 in diluted EPS.

Company Profile

Arch Capital Group Ltd. operates in the Insurance - Diversified industry within the Financial Services sector. It is headquartered in Pembroke, BM. The company is led by CEO Nicolas Alain Emmanuel Papadopoulo. ACGL has traded publicly since 1995.

How Arch Capital Group Ltd. Is Valued

Arch Capital Group Ltd. carries a market capitalization of $35.71B, placing it in the large-cap category. Relative to its peer group, ACGL's quantitative score of 47/100 is below the peer average of 62/100.

ROE 20%Key Financial Metrics

Return on equity for Arch Capital Group Ltd. stands at 20.5%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 6.0%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. ACGL trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 6.66, below the Financial Services sector average of ~18x. Its free cash flow yield is 18.6%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 0.68 means current liabilities exceed short-term assets, a liquidity point worth watching. Its earnings yield is 15.0%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

F-Score 8/9Financial Health

Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — signaling solid underlying fundamentals. Its Altman Z-Score of 1.09 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.

7/8 beatsEarnings Track Record

Arch Capital Group Ltd. has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reported quarters — a consistent record of delivering on expectations. Reported results have landed about 13.0% above estimates on average.

FY2026 estForward Outlook

Wall Street analysts project Arch Capital Group Ltd. revenue of about $17.07B for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $9.29. The estimate reflects 6 contributing analysts.

Net buyingInsider Activity

Over the past six months, Arch Capital Group Ltd. insiders filed 15 SEC Form 4 transactions — 3 sales and 12 purchases. On net that is roughly 16K shares acquired (about $93K) — insiders putting money in tends to read as conviction.

ACGL Financials

Fundamental Snapshot

Revenue Growth (FY)
+14.3%
Net Income Growth (FY)
+2.0%
EPS Growth (FY)
+3.2%
Free Cash Flow Growth (FY)
-7.5%
P/E (TTM)
6.7
Return on Equity (TTM)
+20.5%
Current Ratio
0.7
EV/EBITDA (TTM)
5.7

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis · FY 2025

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Bull Case

  • Recent insider buying suggests confidence in Arch Capital's future performance, indicating that those closest to the company believe in its potential.
  • The insurance sector has been experiencing increased demand, which could benefit Arch Capital as it positions itself to capitalize on market opportunities.
  • Community sentiment has shifted positively, with discussions highlighting Arch's strong underwriting capabilities and risk management strategies.
  • Recent partnerships and expansions in their reinsurance segment signal a proactive approach to growth, enhancing investor optimism about long-term prospects.

Bear Case

  • Some community members express concerns over potential regulatory changes that could impact profitability in the insurance sector.
  • Recent earnings reports showed mixed results, leading to skepticism about Arch's ability to maintain growth momentum amidst economic uncertainties.
  • There is a perception of increasing competition in the insurance market, which might pressure margins and dilute Arch's market share.
  • Market sentiment has been cautious, with discussions reflecting worries about the broader economic environment affecting insurance claims and underwriting results.

AI-generated arguments based on insider flow, news sentiment and technicals — not financial advice · February 2026

From the Earnings Call

“We also chose not to renew certain program business acquired in the middle market commercial transaction that did not align with our risk appetite or meet our profitability requirements. As we have discussed on prior calls, these nonrenewals are expected to reduce net premium return by approximately $250 million throughout 2026.”

— Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo

“Our focus and disciplined underwriting led to the reinsurance group's 76% combined ratio marking the fourth straight quarter of sub 80% combined ratios.”

— Nicolas Alain Papadopoulo

ACGL Q1 FY2026 earnings call transcript · 2026-04-29

Recent Quarterly Results

Quarter Revenue Net Income EPS
Q1 2026 $4.36B $1.05B $2.91
Q4 2025 $5.39B $1.24B $3.29
Q3 2025 $4.98B $1.35B $3.59
Q2 2025 $4.97B $1.24B $3.26

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

ACGL Latest News

ACGL Analyst Consensus

Consensus Rating

Aggregated Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations from Benzinga, Yahoo Finance, and Finnhub for ACGL.

Price Targets

Consensus target: $104.38

ACGL MoonshotScore

47/100

What does this score mean?

The MoonshotScore rates ACGL's growth potential on a scale of 0-100 across multiple factors including innovation, market disruption, financial health, and momentum.

Leadership: Nicolas Alain Emmanuel Papadopoulo

CEO

Nicolas Papadopoulo serves as the CEO of Arch Capital Group Ltd. His career spans several decades in the insurance and reinsurance industries. Prior to his role at Arch Capital, he held various leadership positions at prominent global insurance firms. He brings extensive experience in underwriting, risk management, and strategic planning. Papadopoulo's expertise and vision have been instrumental in driving Arch Capital's growth and profitability. He is known for his disciplined approach to underwriting and his focus on innovation.

Track Record: Under Nicolas Papadopoulo's leadership, Arch Capital has achieved significant milestones, including consistent growth in revenue and profitability. He has overseen strategic acquisitions that have expanded the company's product offerings and geographic reach. His focus on underwriting discipline and risk management has contributed to Arch Capital's strong financial performance. He has successfully navigated the company through various market cycles and challenges.

What Investors Ask About Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) — Financial Services

What does Arch Capital Group Ltd. do?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a global provider of insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers a wide range of products, including primary and excess casualty coverages, directors' and officers' liability, and property insurance. The Reinsurance segment provides casualty reinsurance, marine and aviation reinsurance, and property reinsurance. The Mortgage segment offers direct mortgage insurance and mortgage reinsurance. Arch Capital's business model focuses on underwriting expertise, risk management, and diversification to generate consistent profitability.

What do analysts say about ACGL stock?

Analyst consensus on Arch Capital Group Ltd. is generally positive, reflecting the company's strong financial performance and growth prospects. Key valuation metrics, such as the P/E ratio of 6.7, suggest that the stock may be undervalued compared to its peers. Analysts cite the company's underwriting discipline, diversified product portfolio, and efficient capital management as key strengths. Growth considerations include the potential for expansion in emerging markets and the increasing demand for specialty insurance products. However, analysts also note the risks associated with large-scale catastrophic events and fluctuations in interest rates.

What are the main risks for ACGL?

The main risks for Arch Capital Group Ltd. include exposure to large-scale catastrophic events, such as hurricanes and earthquakes, which could result in significant losses. Fluctuations in interest rates could also impact investment income and profitability. Intense competition in the insurance and reinsurance industries could put pressure on pricing and margins. Changes in regulations could increase compliance costs and impact business operations. Cybersecurity risks could lead to data breaches and reputational damage. These risks are inherent in the insurance industry and require effective risk management strategies.

What are the key factors to evaluate for ACGL?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) holds an AI score of 47/100 (low). P/E: 6.7x vs the S&P 500's ~20-25x. Analysts target $104.38 (+2%). Not financial advice.

How frequently does ACGL data refresh on this page?

ACGL prices update in real time during U.S. market hours. Fundamentals refresh after quarterly filings; analyst ratings and AI insights update daily; news is aggregated continuously.

What has driven ACGL's recent stock price performance?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) moves on earnings results, analyst revisions, sector rotation, and market sentiment. Notable catalyst: Strong underwriting expertise. See the News tab for the latest drivers. Past performance does not predict future results.

Should investors consider ACGL overvalued or undervalued right now?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) trades at 6.7x earnings. Analysts target $104.38 (+2%) — near fair value. Compare P/E, P/S, and EV/EBITDA against sector peers for a full view.

What research should beginners do before buying ACGL?

Before investing in Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL), research these four areas: (1) the company's revenue model and competitive position (see Company Overview), (2) financial health through revenue growth, margins, and cash flow (see MoonshotScore), (3) what Wall Street analysts recommend and their price targets (see Analyst tab), and (4) specific risk factors that could impact the stock (see Risk Factors section).

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

Official Resources

Price as of Analysis updated AI Score refreshed daily
Data Sources & Methodology
Market data powered by Financial Modeling Prep & Yahoo Finance. AI analysis by Stock Expert AI proprietary algorithms. Technical indicators via industry-standard calculations. Last updated: .
Data Provenance
Sources: Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) — Primary · Yahoo Finance — Fallback · Alpaca — Tertiary
Last fetched:
Cache TTL: Quote 5min · Profile 7d · Financials 7d · Insider 48h
How we use AI: Numbers are pulled directly from FMP & Yahoo Finance — our AI writes the analysis, it never edits the figures.
Data provided as-is for educational purposes. Not financial advice. Methodology

Data provided for informational purposes only.

Analysis Notes
  • Information is based on publicly available sources and may be subject to change.
  • Financial data is as of the latest available reporting period.
Data Sources

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