CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Materials & Commodity Exposure

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is a global leader in hydrogen and nitrogen product manufacturing, pivotal for fertilizers and industrial applications. With a robust distribution network and a focus on emissions abatement, CF serves diverse sectors, maintaining a strong market presence in the agricultural inputs industry.

What Is the Investment Thesis for CF?

CF Industries presents a compelling investment case driven by its strategic position in the agricultural inputs market and its focus on hydrogen and nitrogen products. With a P/E ratio of 8.9 and a profit margin of 23.7%, the company demonstrates strong profitability. Key value drivers include increasing global demand for fertilizers, driven by population growth and the need for enhanced agricultural productivity. The company's investments in emissions abatement technologies also position it favorably in a market increasingly focused on sustainability. However, investors may want to evaluate the cyclical nature of the fertilizer industry and potential fluctuations in natural gas prices, a key input for nitrogen production. The company's dividend yield of 1.74% provides a steady income stream, adding to its investment appeal.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

CF Key Highlights

Market Cap of $18.3B reflects CF Industries' significant presence in the agricultural inputs market.

• P/E ratio of 8.9 indicates a potentially undervalued stock relative to its earnings.
• Profit Margin of 23.7% demonstrates strong operational efficiency and profitability.
• Gross Margin of 40.4% highlights the company's ability to maintain healthy margins in a competitive market.
• Dividend Yield of 1.74% provides a consistent return for investors, enhancing the stock's attractiveness.

Who Are CF's Competitors?

CF is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are CF's Key Strengths?

Large-scale production capacity

• Extensive distribution network
• Diverse product portfolio
• Strong relationships with agricultural cooperatives

What Are CF's Weaknesses?

Sensitivity to natural gas prices

• Cyclical demand in the fertilizer industry
• Exposure to environmental regulations
• Dependence on weather conditions affecting crop yields

What Could Drive CF Stock Higher?

Increasing global demand for nitrogen fertilizers driven by population growth.

• Investments in green and blue hydrogen production to capitalize on the decarbonization trend.
• Potential strategic partnerships and acquisitions to expand product portfolio and geographic reach.
• Development of sustainable fertilizer products to attract environmentally conscious customers.

What Are the Key Risks for CF?

Insider selling — insiders were net sellers of roughly $22.8M recently.

• Fluctuations in natural gas prices impacting production costs.
• Increased competition from low-cost producers in emerging markets.
• Changes in environmental regulations increasing compliance costs.
• Economic downturns affecting agricultural spending and fertilizer demand.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for CF?

• Expansion of Hydrogen Production: CF Industries is investing in green and blue hydrogen production, aligning with the global push for decarbonization. The green hydrogen market is projected to reach $89.2 billion by 2029, offering a substantial growth opportunity. By leveraging its existing infrastructure and expertise in nitrogen production, CF Industries can capitalize on this emerging market and diversify its revenue streams.
• Increased Demand for Nitrogen Fertilizers: The global population is expected to reach nearly 10 billion by 2050, driving increased demand for food and, consequently, nitrogen fertilizers. CF Industries is well-positioned to benefit from this trend, with its established production facilities and distribution network. The nitrogen fertilizer market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.5% through 2026, providing a stable and growing market for CF's products.
• Emissions Abatement Technologies: As environmental regulations become stricter, the demand for emissions abatement technologies is increasing. CF Industries offers products like diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) that help reduce emissions from vehicles and industrial processes. This presents a significant growth opportunity, as companies seek to comply with environmental standards and reduce their carbon footprint. The global DEF market is expected to reach $40.1 billion by 2027.
• Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions: CF Industries can pursue strategic partnerships and acquisitions to expand its product portfolio and geographic reach. Collaborating with other companies in the agricultural sector can create synergies and enhance its competitive position. Acquiring companies with complementary technologies or market access can accelerate growth and diversify its revenue base. This strategy allows CF to quickly adapt to changing market dynamics and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
• Development of Sustainable Fertilizer Products: There is a growing demand for sustainable and environmentally friendly fertilizer products. CF Industries can invest in research and development to create innovative fertilizers that reduce environmental impact and improve nutrient use efficiency. This can attract environmentally conscious customers and differentiate CF from its competitors. The market for sustainable fertilizers is projected to grow significantly in the coming years, driven by increasing awareness of environmental issues.

What Are CF's Competitive Advantages?

• Scale: CF Industries operates large-scale production facilities, providing a cost advantage.
• Distribution Network: Established distribution network ensures reliable product delivery.
• Product Breadth: Diverse product portfolio caters to various customer needs.
• Strategic Locations: Manufacturing complexes strategically located in key markets.

What Does CF Do?

Founded in 1946, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has evolved into a major player in the global nitrogen and hydrogen products market. Originally established to supply nitrogen fertilizer to agricultural cooperatives, the company has expanded its product offerings to include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and ammonium nitrate. These products are crucial for the agriculture sector, enhancing crop yields and supporting food production worldwide. Beyond agriculture, CF Industries also serves the energy, emissions abatement, and other industrial sectors. Its product portfolio includes diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, aqua ammonia, and compound fertilizers containing nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. CF Industries operates manufacturing complexes in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, ensuring a broad geographic reach and reliable supply to its customer base. The company primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users, maintaining strong relationships across its value chain. Headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois, CF Industries continues to innovate and adapt to meet the evolving needs of its diverse markets.

What Products and Services Does CF Offer?

• Manufactures and sells anhydrous ammonia.
• Produces granular urea for fertilizer applications.
• Offers urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) solutions.
• Provides ammonium nitrate products.
• Supplies diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) for emissions control.
• Produces urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia.
• Creates compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium.

How Does CF Make Money?

• Manufactures nitrogen and hydrogen products.
• Sells products directly to cooperatives, distributors, and industrial users.
• Leverages a network of distribution channels to reach global markets.
• Focuses on operational efficiency to maintain competitive pricing.

What Industry Does CF Operate In?

CF Industries operates within the agricultural inputs industry, a sector vital for global food production. The market is driven by factors such as increasing population, rising demand for food, and the need for higher crop yields. The industry is characterized by cyclical demand and sensitivity to commodity prices, particularly natural gas, a key input for nitrogen fertilizer production. CF Industries competes with companies like Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM) and LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB), focusing on efficient production and distribution to maintain a competitive edge.

Who Are CF's Key Customers?

• Agricultural cooperatives
• Independent fertilizer distributors
• Traders and wholesalers
• Industrial users in energy and emissions abatement sectors

Over the past six months, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. insiders filed 28 SEC Form 4 transactions — 15 sales and 13 purchases. On net that is roughly 145K shares disposed (about $22.8M), a signal worth weighing alongside the fundamentals.

Quarterly Financial Performance: CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

Revenue for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. came in at $2.22B during Q2 2026, a 11.9% improvement versus the preceding quarter. The company recorded net income of $727.0M, with diluted EPS of $4.73. Revenue has increased across the last three reported quarters, suggesting sustained momentum for this large-cap Basic Materials company. Across the four most recent quarters, CF averaged $3.37 in diluted EPS.

CF Valuation & Market Position

With a $18.3B market cap, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. sits in the large-cap segment of the market. Relative to its peer group, CF's quantitative score of 99/100 is above the peer average of 53/100.

Return on equity for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. stands at 27.3%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 11.3%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. CF trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 8.91, below the Basic Materials sector average of ~22x. Its free cash flow yield is 0.0%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 3.54 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is 0.0%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — signaling solid underlying fundamentals. Its Altman Z-Score of 3.69 places it in the safe zone, indicating low near-term bankruptcy risk.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reported quarters — a consistent record of delivering on expectations. Reported results have landed about 14.5% above estimates on average.

Wall Street analysts project CF Industries Holdings, Inc. revenue of about $8.51B for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $16.67. The estimate reflects 15 contributing analysts.

Company Profile

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. operates in the Agricultural Inputs industry within the Basic Materials sector. It is headquartered in Northbrook, US. The company is led by CEO Christopher D. Bohn. CF has traded publicly since 2005.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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