Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Analysis by Sedat ANAK, Founder & Editor-in-Chief | AI-powered analysis. Data sourced from SEC filings and institutional-grade financial providers. Editorially reviewed. Not financial advice.
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) trades at $89.43 with AI Score 62/100 (Grade B+). Churchill Downs Incorporated is a leading racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company in the United States. Market cap: $6.23B, Sector: Consumer cyclical.
Price live · AI analysis from May 10, 2026CHDN stock analysis for 2026: Analysts have set a consensus price target of $145.00 for Churchill Downs Incorporated, suggesting 62.1% upside from the current price of $89.43. The AI MoonshotScore is 62/100, indicating a bullish outlook. Key factors: analyst coverage, AI-driven quantitative scoring.
CHDN: 1/1 perspectives are bullish.
How is this calculated? →Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Consumer Business Overview
Churchill Downs Incorporated, founded in 1875, is a diversified gaming and entertainment company renowned for its iconic Kentucky Derby. Operating across live racing, online wagering via TwinSpires, and casino gaming, CHDN boasts a significant presence in the U.S. gambling and entertainment market, leveraging its brand heritage and multi-faceted revenue streams.
What Is the Investment Thesis for CHDN?
Churchill Downs Incorporated presents a compelling investment case based on its diversified revenue streams, strong brand recognition, and growth opportunities in online wagering and gaming. The company's TwinSpires platform is well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding online sports betting and iGaming market. With a P/E ratio of 12.2 and a profit margin of 13.1%, CHDN demonstrates financial stability and profitability. The company's ongoing investments in expanding its gaming and HRM footprint, coupled with its iconic Kentucky Derby event, provide sustainable competitive advantages. Key catalysts include the continued legalization of online sports betting in new states and the expansion of its casino operations. However, potential risks include increased competition in the online gaming market and regulatory changes affecting the gaming industry.
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis
CHDN Key Highlights
- Market capitalization of $6.23B reflects investor confidence in CHDN's diversified gaming and entertainment operations.
- P/E ratio of 12.2 indicates a reasonable valuation relative to earnings.
- Profit margin of 13.1% demonstrates efficient operations and profitability.
- Gross margin of 33.8% showcases the company's ability to manage costs effectively.
- Dividend yield of 0.50% provides a modest income stream for investors.
Who Are CHDN's Competitors?
CHDN is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.
| Company | Price | Change | Market Cap | AI Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALSN Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | $115.50 | -0.74% | $9.58B | 66 |
| MUSA Murphy USA Inc. | $566.63 | +1.05% | $10.47B | 73 |
| LNW Light & Wonder, Inc. | $99.75 | +0.25% | $8.43B | 52 |
| BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc | $45.98 | -0.02% | $8.46B | 49 |
| SGHC Super Group (SGHC) Limited | $14.55 | +0.31% | $7.40B | 52 |
| PDSSF Paradise Entertainment Limited | $0.09 | +0.00% | $96.39M | 63 |
| RSI Rush Street Interactive (RSI) | $32.30 | +1.96% | $7.68B | 62 |
| CDRO Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. | $9.52 | -0.47% | $432.65M | 59 |
AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance
What Are CHDN's Key Strengths?
- Iconic Kentucky Derby brand
- Diversified revenue streams across live racing, online wagering, and casino gaming
- Established infrastructure and gaming licenses
- Experienced management team
What Are CHDN's Weaknesses?
- Dependence on regulatory approvals for expansion
- Exposure to economic downturns and changes in consumer spending
- Competition in the online gaming market
- Potential for negative publicity related to gaming activities
What Could Drive CHDN Stock Higher?
- Continued legalization of online sports betting and iGaming in new states, expanding the market for TwinSpires.
- Expansion of historical racing machine (HRM) facilities in Kentucky and other states.
- Strategic acquisitions of gaming properties and related businesses.
- Development of new integrated resorts and entertainment venues.
What Are the Key Risks for CHDN?
- Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 1.51 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).
- Insider selling — insiders were net sellers of roughly $5.6M recently.
- Increased competition in the online gaming market from established and emerging players.
- Changes in gaming regulations and tax rates that could negatively impact profitability.
- Economic downturns that reduce consumer spending on gaming and entertainment.
- Negative publicity related to problem gambling and other social issues.
- Dependence on regulatory approvals for expansion and new ventures.
What Are the Growth Opportunities for CHDN?
- Expansion of Online Wagering: Churchill Downs' TwinSpires platform has significant growth potential in the expanding online sports betting and iGaming market. As more states legalize online gambling, TwinSpires can capitalize on this trend by expanding its market reach and product offerings. The global online gambling market is projected to reach $127.3 billion by 2027, presenting a substantial opportunity for CHDN to increase its revenue and market share. Timeline: Ongoing.
- Growth in Historical Racing Machines (HRMs): Churchill Downs can continue to expand its HRM footprint in Kentucky and other states. HRMs have proven to be a popular and profitable gaming option, attracting a diverse customer base. The company's existing HRM facilities have demonstrated strong performance, providing a solid foundation for future expansion. The market for HRMs is expected to grow as more states seek to generate revenue through gaming. Timeline: Ongoing.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Churchill Downs can pursue strategic acquisitions to expand its geographic reach and diversify its gaming and entertainment offerings. Acquisitions can provide access to new markets, technologies, and customer segments. The company has a track record of successful acquisitions, demonstrating its ability to integrate and leverage acquired assets. The market for gaming and entertainment companies is fragmented, presenting opportunities for consolidation. Timeline: Ongoing.
- Development of Integrated Resorts: Churchill Downs can develop integrated resorts that combine casino gaming, hotels, restaurants, and entertainment venues. Integrated resorts offer a comprehensive entertainment experience, attracting a wider range of customers and generating higher revenue per customer. The company's experience in operating racetracks and casinos provides a strong foundation for developing successful integrated resorts. The market for integrated resorts is growing, particularly in Asia and other emerging markets. Timeline: 3-5 years.
- Leveraging Brand Recognition: Churchill Downs can leverage its iconic Kentucky Derby brand to expand its marketing reach and attract new customers. The Kentucky Derby is one of the most prestigious and widely recognized sporting events in the world, providing a valuable marketing platform for CHDN. The company can leverage the Kentucky Derby brand to promote its other gaming and entertainment offerings, such as TwinSpires and its casino operations. Timeline: Ongoing.
What Opportunities Does CHDN Have?
- Expansion of online wagering as more states legalize sports betting and iGaming
- Growth in historical racing machines (HRMs) in new and existing markets
- Strategic acquisitions to expand geographic reach and diversify offerings
- Development of integrated resorts to attract a wider range of customers
What Threats Does CHDN Face?
- Increased competition in the online gaming market
- Changes in gaming regulations and tax rates
- Economic downturns that reduce consumer spending on gaming and entertainment
- Negative publicity related to problem gambling and other social issues
What Are CHDN's Competitive Advantages?
- Brand Recognition: The Kentucky Derby is a globally recognized brand, providing a significant competitive advantage.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: Churchill Downs' diversified business model, encompassing live racing, online wagering, and casino gaming, reduces its reliance on any single revenue source.
- Regulatory Licenses: Churchill Downs holds valuable gaming licenses in multiple states, creating a barrier to entry for potential competitors.
- Established Infrastructure: The company's established infrastructure, including racetracks, casinos, and online wagering platforms, provides a competitive advantage.
What Does CHDN Do?
Churchill Downs Incorporated, established in 1875 and headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, has evolved from its roots as the home of the Kentucky Derby into a diversified gaming and entertainment powerhouse. The company operates through three primary segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment encompasses the company's flagship Churchill Downs Racetrack, along with other racing venues and historical racing machine (HRM) facilities. As of December 31, 2021, Churchill Downs operated three pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues in Kentucky, featuring approximately 3,050 HRMs. The TwinSpires segment provides an online wagering platform for horse racing, sports, and iGaming, catering to a growing market of digital bettors. The Gaming segment includes casino operations across eight states, equipped with approximately 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals, and 200 table games. Beyond its core operations, Churchill Downs also offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and racing information, as well as the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data. The company also manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks and off-track betting facilities. Churchill Downs' strategic diversification and iconic brand have solidified its position as a key player in the U.S. gaming and entertainment landscape.
What Products and Services Does CHDN Offer?
- Operates live horse racing events, including the Kentucky Derby.
- Provides online wagering services through TwinSpires for horse racing, sports, and iGaming.
- Owns and operates casino gaming facilities in multiple states.
- Offers historical racing machines (HRMs) at select locations.
- Provides streaming video and data services for horse racing.
- Manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems.
How Does CHDN Make Money?
- Generates revenue from live racing events through ticket sales, concessions, and wagering.
- Earns revenue from online wagering through TwinSpires, based on a percentage of wagers placed.
- Derives revenue from casino gaming operations through slot machines, table games, and other gaming activities.
- Receives revenue from HRM operations, based on a percentage of wagers placed.
What Industry Does CHDN Operate In?
Churchill Downs operates within the dynamic gambling, resorts, and casinos industry. The industry is experiencing growth driven by the increasing legalization of online sports betting and iGaming, as well as the continued popularity of casino gaming and live entertainment. The competitive landscape includes established players like Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNW), as well as emerging online gaming platforms. Churchill Downs' diversified business model, encompassing live racing, online wagering, and casino gaming, positions it favorably to capitalize on these trends. The industry is also subject to regulatory scrutiny and evolving consumer preferences, requiring companies to adapt and innovate to maintain their competitive edge.
Who Are CHDN's Key Customers?
- Horse racing enthusiasts who attend live racing events and wager on races.
- Online bettors who use the TwinSpires platform to wager on horse racing, sports, and iGaming.
- Casino patrons who visit Churchill Downs' gaming facilities to play slot machines, table games, and other games.
- Racetracks and off-track betting facilities that use Churchill Downs' pari-mutuel wagering systems.
Churchill Downs Incorporated Financial Trajectory
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) reported $663.0M in revenue for Q1 2026, a decline of 0.4% compared to the prior quarter. The company recorded net income of $81.0M, with diluted EPS of $1.16. Revenue has contracted over three consecutive quarters, which investors in this mid-cap Consumer Cyclical stock should monitor closely. Across the four most recent quarters, CHDN averaged $1.35 in diluted EPS.
Company Profile
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates in the Gambling, Resorts & Casinos industry within the Consumer Cyclical sector. It is headquartered in Louisville, US. The company is led by CEO William C. Carstanjen. CHDN has traded publicly since 1993.
How Churchill Downs Incorporated Is Valued
Churchill Downs Incorporated carries a market capitalization of $6.23B, placing it in the mid-cap category. Relative to its peer group, CHDN's quantitative score of 62/100 is roughly in line with the peer average of 58/100.
ROE 37%Key Financial Metrics
Return on equity for Churchill Downs Incorporated stands at 36.9%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 5.2%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. CHDN trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 12.20, below the Consumer Cyclical sector average of ~39x. Its free cash flow yield is 9.4%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 0.54 means current liabilities exceed short-term assets, a liquidity point worth watching. Its earnings yield is 6.4%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.
F-Score 8/9Financial Health
Churchill Downs Incorporated's Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — signaling solid underlying fundamentals. Its Altman Z-Score of 1.51 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.
FY2026 estForward Outlook
Wall Street analysts project Churchill Downs Incorporated revenue of about $3.03B for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $6.96. The estimate reflects 8 contributing analysts.
Net buyingInsider Activity
Over the past six months, Churchill Downs Incorporated insiders filed 22 SEC Form 4 transactions — 4 sales and 18 purchases. On net that is roughly 136K shares acquired (about $5.6M) — insiders putting money in tends to read as conviction.
CHDN Financials
Fundamental Snapshot
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis · FY 2025
Bull Case vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- Iconic Kentucky Derby brand
- Diversified revenue streams across live racing, online wagering, and casino gaming
- Established infrastructure and gaming licenses
- Experienced management team
Bear Case
- Dependence on regulatory approvals for expansion
- Exposure to economic downturns and changes in consumer spending
- Competition in the online gaming market
- Potential for negative publicity related to gaming activities
AI-generated arguments based on insider flow, news sentiment and technicals — not financial advice · July 2026
Recent Quarterly Results
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $663M | $81M | $1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | $666M | $50M | $0.71 |
| Q3 2025 | $683M | $38M | $0.53 |
| Q2 2025 | $934M | $217M | $3.00 |
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis
CHDN Latest News
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Churchill Downs Notified About State of Maryland's Decision to Acquire Preakness IP Rights
MT Newswires · Jun 18, 2026
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Churchill Downs Incorporated Announces State of Maryland’s Decision to Acquire the Preakness IP Rights
Yahoo! Finance: CHDN News · Jun 18, 2026
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Churchill Downs Incorporated 2026 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call Invitation
globenewswire.com · Jun 18, 2026
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3 Reasons CHDN is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
Yahoo! Finance: CHDN News · Jun 17, 2026
CHDN Analyst Consensus
Consensus Rating
Aggregated Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations from Benzinga, Yahoo Finance, and Finnhub for CHDN.
Price Targets
Consensus target: $145.00
CHDN MoonshotScore
What does this score mean?
The MoonshotScore rates CHDN's growth potential on a scale of 0-100 across multiple factors including innovation, market disruption, financial health, and momentum.
Latest News
Churchill Downs Notified About State of Maryland's Decision to Acquire Preakness IP Rights
Churchill Downs Incorporated Announces State of Maryland’s Decision to Acquire the Preakness IP Rights
Churchill Downs Incorporated 2026 Second Quarter Financial Results Conference Call Invitation
3 Reasons CHDN is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
Latest Churchill Downs Incorporated Analysis
Leadership: William C. Carstanjen
Chief Executive Officer
William C. Carstanjen serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Churchill Downs Incorporated. His career with the company spans several years, during which he has held various leadership positions. Carstanjen's expertise lies in corporate strategy, finance, and legal affairs. He has been instrumental in driving the company's growth and diversification initiatives. His educational background and previous roles have equipped him with a comprehensive understanding of the gaming and entertainment industry.
Track Record: Under William C. Carstanjen's leadership, Churchill Downs Incorporated has achieved significant milestones, including the expansion of its online wagering platform, TwinSpires, and the acquisition of new gaming properties. He has also overseen the successful execution of strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing the company's brand recognition and customer experience. His tenure has been marked by consistent financial performance and a focus on long-term value creation.
Churchill Downs Incorporated Consumer Cyclical Stock: Key Questions Answered
What does Churchill Downs Incorporated do?
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates as a diversified gaming and entertainment company, primarily known for hosting the Kentucky Derby. The company's operations span three segments: Live and Historical Racing, which includes its flagship Churchill Downs Racetrack and historical racing machine (HRM) facilities; TwinSpires, an online wagering platform for horse racing, sports, and iGaming; and Gaming, which encompasses casino operations across multiple states. The company generates revenue through ticket sales, wagering, gaming activities, and online platform fees, positioning itself as a key player in the U.S. gaming and entertainment landscape.
What do analysts say about CHDN stock?
Analyst consensus on Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) reflects a generally positive outlook, driven by the company's diversified revenue streams and growth opportunities in online wagering and gaming. Key valuation metrics, such as the P/E ratio of 12.2, suggest a reasonable valuation relative to earnings. Growth considerations include the continued expansion of online sports betting and iGaming, as well as the company's strategic acquisitions and development of integrated resorts. However, analysts also note potential risks, such as increased competition and regulatory changes, which could impact the company's financial performance. No buy or sell recommendations are implied.
What are the main risks for CHDN?
Churchill Downs Incorporated faces several key risks inherent to the gaming and entertainment industry. Increased competition in the online gaming market from both established and emerging players poses a threat to the company's market share and profitability. Changes in gaming regulations and tax rates could also negatively impact the company's financial performance. Economic downturns could reduce consumer spending on gaming and entertainment, affecting revenue. Additionally, negative publicity related to problem gambling and other social issues could damage the company's reputation and brand image. The company's dependence on regulatory approvals for expansion also presents a risk to its growth plans.
What are the key factors to evaluate for CHDN?
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) holds an AI score of 62/100 (moderate). P/E: 12.2x vs the S&P 500's ~20-25x. Analysts target $145.00 (+62%). Not financial advice.
How frequently does CHDN data refresh on this page?
CHDN prices update in real time during U.S. market hours. Fundamentals refresh after quarterly filings; analyst ratings and AI insights update daily; news is aggregated continuously.
What has driven CHDN's recent stock price performance?
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) moves on earnings results, analyst revisions, sector rotation, and market sentiment. Notable catalyst: Iconic Kentucky Derby brand. See the News tab for the latest drivers. Past performance does not predict future results.
Should investors consider CHDN overvalued or undervalued right now?
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) trades at 12.2x earnings. Analysts target $145.00 (+62%) — upside seen. Compare P/E, P/S, and EV/EBITDA against sector peers for a full view.
What research should beginners do before buying CHDN?
Before investing in Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN), research these four areas: (1) the company's revenue model and competitive position (see Company Overview), (2) financial health through revenue growth, margins, and cash flow (see MoonshotScore), (3) what Wall Street analysts recommend and their price targets (see Analyst tab), and (4) specific risk factors that could impact the stock (see Risk Factors section).
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.
Official Resources
Data provided for informational purposes only.
- Information is based on available data as of 2026-05-10.
- Financial data is based on the most recent available reports.
- Analyst opinions may vary.