Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Financial Services Profile

Upstart Holdings, Inc. is a fintech company leveraging artificial intelligence to revolutionize the lending industry. Its cloud-based platform connects consumers with AI-enabled bank partners, offering a streamlined and data-driven approach to personal loans, differentiating it from traditional credit scoring models and expanding access to credit.

What Is the Investment Thesis for UPST?

The company's ability to connect consumer loan demand with AI-enabled bank partners offers a differentiated approach in the financial services sector. Key value drivers include the potential for increased loan volume through expanded partnerships and the continued refinement of its AI models, leading to improved risk assessment and profitability. With a P/E ratio of 40.39 and a gross margin of 95.7%, Upstart demonstrates strong financial performance. Ongoing catalysts include further integration of AI into lending processes and expansion of its partner network. Potential risks include increased competition in the fintech lending space and regulatory changes impacting AI-driven lending models.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

UPST Key Highlights

Market Cap of $2.45B reflects investor confidence in Upstart's growth potential.

• P/E ratio of 40.39 indicates a premium valuation, suggesting high growth expectations.
• Gross Margin of 95.7% demonstrates Upstart's efficient business model and strong pricing power.
• Profit Margin of 4.2% shows room for improvement as the company scales and optimizes operations.
• Beta of 2.16 indicates higher volatility compared to the market, reflecting its growth stock characteristics.

Who Are UPST's Competitors?

UPST is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance This table mixes two scoring engines — compare a number only with others carrying the same tag.

What Are UPST's Key Strengths?

Innovative AI-driven lending platform.

• Strong partnerships with banks and credit unions.
• High gross margin.
• Experienced management team.

What Are UPST's Weaknesses?

Relatively small market share.

• Dependence on bank partners for funding.
• Limited geographic reach (United States only).
• Profit margin could be higher.

What Could Drive UPST Stock Higher?

Continued expansion of bank and credit union partnerships.

• Further refinement of AI models to improve risk assessment.
• Potential expansion into new lending products (e.g., auto loans).
• Possible geographic expansion into international markets.

What Are the Key Risks for UPST?

Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 1.27 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).

• Rich valuation — a P/E of 40.39 runs well above the Financial Services sector’s ~17.50x, leaving little room for a miss.
• Insider selling — insiders were net sellers of roughly $2.4M recently.
• Increased competition from other fintech lenders and traditional banks.
• Regulatory changes impacting AI-driven lending models.
• Economic downturn leading to higher loan losses.
• Cybersecurity risks and data breaches.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for UPST?

• Geographic Expansion: Upstart has the opportunity to expand its operations beyond the United States into international markets. The global fintech lending market is estimated to reach $500 billion by 2030, presenting a significant growth opportunity. By adapting its AI models to different regulatory environments and consumer behaviors, Upstart can tap into new markets and diversify its revenue streams. Timeline: 3-5 years.
• Product Diversification: Upstart can expand its product offerings beyond unsecured personal loans to include other lending products such as auto loans, mortgages, and small business loans. The market for these lending products is significantly larger than the personal loan market, providing ample room for growth. By leveraging its AI platform and data analytics capabilities, Upstart can effectively assess risk and offer competitive rates across a wider range of lending products. Timeline: 2-4 years.
• Partnership Expansion: Upstart can further expand its network of bank and credit union partners to increase loan origination volume. By partnering with more financial institutions, Upstart can reach a wider audience of potential borrowers and increase its market share. The company can also explore partnerships with non-traditional lenders such as online retailers and e-commerce platforms to offer embedded lending solutions. Timeline: Ongoing.
• AI Model Enhancement: Upstart can continue to invest in research and development to enhance its AI models and improve risk assessment accuracy. By incorporating new data sources and refining its algorithms, Upstart can further reduce loan losses and increase profitability. The company can also explore the use of AI to automate other aspects of the lending process, such as loan servicing and collections. Timeline: Ongoing.
• White-Label Solutions: Upstart can offer its AI lending platform as a white-label solution to other financial institutions. This would allow banks and credit unions to leverage Upstart's technology and expertise to improve their own lending operations without having to develop their own AI platforms. The market for white-label lending solutions is growing rapidly, as more financial institutions seek to adopt AI and digital technologies. Timeline: 2-3 years.

What Are UPST's Competitive Advantages?

• Proprietary AI Technology: Upstart's AI lending platform is a key competitive advantage, enabling more accurate risk assessment and personalized loan offerings.
• Network Effect: As more banks and borrowers join the Upstart platform, the value of the network increases for all participants.
• Data Advantage: Upstart's access to a large and growing dataset of loan performance data allows it to continuously refine its AI models and improve its lending outcomes.
• Brand Recognition: Upstart has established a strong brand reputation as an innovative and reliable fintech lender.

What Does UPST Do?

Upstart Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2012 with the mission to improve access to affordable credit by leveraging artificial intelligence. The company's cloud-based platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects it to a network of AI-enabled bank partners. This innovative approach allows for more accurate risk assessment and personalized loan offerings, potentially benefiting both borrowers and lenders. Upstart's platform utilizes machine learning algorithms to analyze a wide range of data points beyond traditional credit scores, enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of creditworthiness. This can lead to higher approval rates and lower interest rates for qualified borrowers, while also reducing risk for lending institutions. The company's primary focus is on unsecured personal loans, which can be used for various purposes such as debt consolidation, home improvement, and medical expenses. Upstart operates exclusively in the United States, partnering with banks and credit unions across the country to originate loans through its platform. By streamlining the lending process and leveraging the power of AI, Upstart aims to disrupt the traditional lending market and provide a more efficient and equitable lending experience.

What Products and Services Does UPST Offer?

• Operates a cloud-based AI lending platform.
• Connects consumers seeking loans with AI-enabled bank partners.
• Utilizes machine learning algorithms to assess creditworthiness.
• Offers unsecured personal loans for various purposes.
• Streamlines the lending process for borrowers and lenders.
• Provides a data-driven approach to risk assessment.
• Partners with banks and credit unions across the United States.

How Does UPST Make Money?

• Generates revenue through origination fees charged to bank partners.
• Earns servicing fees for managing loan payments and collections.
• Leverages AI to improve loan performance and reduce risk.
• Partners with banks to provide access to capital and regulatory compliance.

What Industry Does UPST Operate In?

Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates within the rapidly evolving fintech lending industry. This sector is characterized by the increasing adoption of technology and AI to streamline lending processes and improve access to credit. The market is highly competitive, with traditional banks, credit unions, and other fintech companies vying for market share. Upstart differentiates itself through its AI-driven platform, which aims to provide more accurate risk assessment and personalized loan offerings. The fintech lending market is expected to continue to grow, driven by increasing consumer demand for online lending solutions and the ongoing digital transformation of the financial services industry.

Who Are UPST's Key Customers?

• Consumers seeking personal loans for debt consolidation, home improvement, and other purposes.
• Banks and credit unions looking to originate loans through an AI-powered platform.
• Investors seeking exposure to the fintech lending market.

Company Profile

Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates in the Financial - Credit Services industry within the Financial Services sector. It is headquartered in San Mateo, US. The company is led by CEO Paul Gu. UPST has traded publicly since 2020.

Return on equity for Upstart Holdings, Inc. stands at 7.9%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 1.9%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. UPST trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 40.39, above the Financial Services sector average of ~17.50x. Its free cash flow yield is -12.1%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 14.10 indicates the company holds enough short-term assets to cover its near-term obligations. Its earnings yield is 2.4%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

UPST Valuation & Market Position

With a $2.45B market cap, Upstart Holdings, Inc. sits in the mid-cap segment of the market. Analyst price targets span from $30.00 to $51.00, with a consensus of $39.25. At the current price of $25.55, that implies approximately 54% upside potential. Relative to its peer group, UPST's quantitative score of 25/100 is below the peer average of 76/100.

Quarterly Financial Performance: Upstart Holdings, Inc.

Revenue for Upstart Holdings, Inc. came in at $377.2M during Q2 FY2026, a 18.4% improvement versus the preceding quarter. The company recorded net income of $16.5M, with diluted EPS of $0.15. Revenue has increased across the last three reported quarters, suggesting sustained momentum for this mid-cap Financial Services company. Across the four most recent quarters, UPST averaged $0.13 in diluted EPS.

Upstart Holdings, Inc.'s Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — a middling fundamental profile. Its Altman Z-Score of 1.27 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.

Upstart Holdings, Inc. has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reported quarters — more hits than misses. Reported results have landed about 99.3% above estimates on average.

Over the past six months, Upstart Holdings, Inc. insiders filed 29 SEC Form 4 transactions — 22 sales and 7 purchases. On net that is roughly 43K shares disposed (about $2.4M), a signal worth weighing alongside the fundamentals.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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