Defense Tech 2.0
A multi-decade defense spending super-cycle is rerating from legacy hardware toward software, autonomy, and space-based missile defense.
The story
Global military spending hit a record $2.887 trillion in 2025, the eleventh straight annual rise, with Europe up 14 percent as the Russia-Ukraine war and great-power competition reshape budgets. NATO members committed at the June 2025 Hague summit to lift defense and security spending toward 5 percent of GDP by 2035, up from the prior 2 percent guideline. The investable shift is qualitative: budgets are tilting from platform-heavy hardware toward software-defined command-and-control, attritable autonomous systems, and layered missile and space defense.
The outlook to 2030
Through 2026-2030 the US Golden Dome missile-defense initiative, NATO capability rebuilds, and Pentagon autonomous-systems mandates favor companies that supply software, drones, and space sensing rather than only legacy airframes. Recurring software and managed-service revenue models are emerging in defense, and proliferated low-Earth-orbit satellite constellations for missile tracking become a distinct growth layer. Primes with deep missile and interceptor backlogs remain the volume base while pure-play software and space names capture the higher-growth, higher-multiple end.
What is moving the capital
The forces routing money into this theme right now.
Golden Dome missile shield
The US layered ground- and space-based missile defense program creates a long-duration funding stream for interceptor, sensor, and satellite suppliers.
NATO 5 percent of GDP commitment
The June 2025 Hague summit pledge by 31 of 32 allies underpins a multi-year European procurement and industrial-base expansion.
Pentagon autonomous-systems scale-up
Replicator-style mandates shift demand toward attritable drones and collaborative combat aircraft over exquisite manned platforms.
Proliferated missile-tracking satellite constellations
Space Development Agency and Missile Defense Agency programs build out low-Earth-orbit sensing layers central to next-generation missile defense.
The leaders
Structural large-cap anchors — lower-variance exposure to the theme.
Palantir Technologies Inc. is positioned as the structural, lower-variance anchor within the Defense Tech 2.0 theme, providing essential data and command-and-control software for modern defense initiatives. Palantir's AI Platform (AIP) is becoming the default builder platform, streamlining processes and enhancing operational efficiency across the defense industrial base.
Why the excitement: Palantir's Q1 FY2026 U.S. government revenue grew 84% year-over-year, driven by accelerating demand for its AI platform.
The honest risk: Palantir's high price-to-sales ratio of 60.2 may present valuation concerns if growth decelerates.
RTX Corporation (Raytheon) stands as a core beneficiary of the evolving defense landscape, particularly the accelerating missile-defense super-cycle and programs like Golden Dome. With a record backlog and increasing production capacity, RTX is positioned to capitalize on sustained global defense spending.
Why the excitement: Raytheon booked $6.6 billion of awards in Q1 FY2026, including significant contracts for Patriot missile systems, signaling robust demand and future growth.
The honest risk: While RTX anticipates increased production, the GTF program fleet management plan remains a key area to monitor for potential financial and technical challenges.
Lockheed Martin provides stability in the Defense Tech 2.0 theme, driven by its central role in missile defense, space programs, and a growing backlog. The company's Q1 FY2026 earnings call highlighted strong demand and a focus on execution, reinforcing its position as a low-volatility anchor.
Why the excitement: Lockheed Martin's $4.8 billion contract to accelerate PAC-3 production signals tangible growth in missile defense.
The honest risk: Aeronautics sales saw lower volume in Q1 FY2026 due to program lifecycle timing, which could present short-term headwinds.
Asymmetric plays
Smaller names with higher upside and deeper potential drawdowns.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions offers asymmetric exposure to defense-tech growth, particularly in hypersonics, drones, and satellite systems. While carrying higher risk, Kratos' specialized focus positions it to capitalize on escalating defense spending.
Why the excitement: Kratos management cites a burgeoning opportunity pipeline exceeding $14 billion, reflecting increased demand for its solutions.
The honest risk: Kratos, as a smaller player, faces execution risks in scaling production to meet growing demand.
Asymmetry: Large upside on program ramps; sharp drawdown if scaling or contract timing disappoints.
AeroVironment is a higher-growth defense-tech name pivoting to scaled production of AI-enabled autonomous systems. While Q3 FY2026 results fell short of expectations, strong order flow and a growing backlog position AV for record Q4 revenue.
Why the excitement: Management expects to capitalize on unprecedented demand for cost-efficient AI-enabled autonomous drones, with a funded backlog at $1.1 billion.
The honest risk: AeroVironment's operating margin is currently negative, at -6.1%, reflecting ongoing investments and potential execution risks in scaling production.
Asymmetry: High upside on backlog conversion; drawdown on revenue timing and program shifts.
Rocket Lab is positioned to capitalize on increased defense spending through its launch capabilities and space systems, leveraging its responsiveness and proven execution for demanding customers. While a smaller player, Rocket Lab's growth potential is significant, though it faces execution risks inherent in scaling operations and managing costs.
Why the excitement: Rocket Lab's Q1 FY2026 transcript highlights a record backlog exceeding $2 billion, signaling strong demand for its launch services and space systems, particularly within the defense sector.
The honest risk: Rocket Lab's operating margin of -33.2% indicates a significant challenge in achieving profitability despite revenue growth.
Asymmetry: Large upside on Neutron and defense wins; deep drawdown on launch-timeline slippage.
Inside the theme
The sub-layers and the leaders that anchor each one.
Frequently asked questions
What is Defense Tech 2.0?
It is the shift in defense from hardware toward software, drones and autonomy. A structural budget super-cycle plus a technology overhaul favors data and C2 platforms and uncrewed-systems makers alongside the modernizing primes.
Software names or the primes?
Software-first names like Palantir carry the highest growth and asymmetry; the primes such as RTX and Lockheed give lower-volatility exposure to the same rising defense spend.
Why are defense budgets a durable signal?
Western defense programs are funded across political cycles, giving multi-year visibility that is unusual for a growth theme — the budget is locked against political winds.
How does the MoonshotScore evaluate this theme?
It weights revenue and backlog growth, margin strength and contract momentum — separating fast-growing software and autonomy names from steadier primes.
What is the main risk?
Budgets can still be cut, programs can slip, and several smaller names lean on a single government customer, so a cancelled contract can hit them hard.
Research sources
- SIPRI — Global military spending rise continues as European and Asian expenditures surge
- NATO — The Hague Summit Declaration (5% defense spending commitment)
- NPR — Trump's proposed 'Golden Dome' estimated to cost $1.2 trillion
- SEC / Palantir — Palantir Technologies Inc. Q3 2025 Earnings Release (Form 8-K)
- GovCon Wire — RTX Posts Double-Digit Growth in 2025 ($268B backlog)
- SEC / Lockheed Martin — Lockheed Martin Corp FY2025 Annual Report (Form ARS)
- StockTitan / Rocket Lab — Rocket Lab reports record 2025 revenue, $1.85B backlog (Form 8-K)
- Nasdaq / MarketBeat — Why Kratos and AeroVironment Are Suddenly Moving Like Tech Stocks
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Educational content, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.