Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Stock: Price, Forecast & Analyst Target
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) — MoonshotScore 19/100 (Weak band), calculated Oct 5, 2026. Price $15.22 (+3.19%), as of the Oct 2, 2026 trading session; market cap $1.50B.
Educational signal · not a buy or sell recommendation · How to read this
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. · RARE · NASDAQ
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. The company's portfolio includes multiple approved products and a pipeline of gene therapy and antibody candidates.
Price as of Oct 2, 2026
Key Statistics
MoonshotScore v2 · Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE)
WeakWhy this rating? Method, drivers & history
Bands for the MoonshotScore: Exceptional 80-100 · Strong 65-79 · Fair 45-64 · Weak below 45.
- Business Quality — Is this a genuinely good business?
- Financial Safety — Could this blow up on me?
- Valuation — Am I paying a fair price?
- Growth Durability — Is the growth real and likely to last?
- Momentum — Is the market already moving on this?
A strained balance sheet and a full valuation, though quality and growth are only middling, and the price trend has turned against it. Business Quality: Average; Financial Safety: Strained; Valuation: Rich; Growth Durability: Flat; Momentum: Slipping.
- quarterly revenue $214M (Q2 FY2026, quarter ended Jun 2026)
- EPS beat 3 of 8
- Altman Z -5.26 · Piotroski F 2
Holding back: balance-sheet strain, a rich price, weak price trend
What has the MoonshotScore done over time?
| Recorded | Score | Band |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Weak | |
| 12 | Weak | |
| 12 | Weak | |
| 12 | Weak | |
| 12 | Weak | |
| 12 | Weak |
The score moved from 12 in the stored Oct 4, 2026 snapshot to 19 in the current publication computed Oct 5, 2026 (+7); the largest pillar moves were Momentum +7. This current publication is not yet represented in the immutable snapshot archive.
Calculation uses the most recent completed US trading session. Live price changes do not update the score immediately.
Computed · Educational signal · not a buy or sell recommendation · How the MoonshotScore is computed →
Price & valuation
| Measure | Value | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Latest provided price | $15.22 | |
| Change on the day | +3.19% | |
| 52-week range | $12.73 – $39.89 | |
| Market capitalisation | $1.50B | |
| Shares traded on the day | 3.88M |
Price & events
Other perspectives
Council score for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE): perspectives
Council is a separate blend of available disciplines; MoonshotScore above remains the five-pillar research rating.
5-Factor Breakdown
Legends Council
6 lenses, 0 current
AI simulations built from the named investors' published principles. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or the opinion of these individuals. How these lenses are built
Read on: Oct 3, 2026 · older than the 27 hours refresh window; not a current reading
Munger's Mindset
Balance Sheet & Valuation · historical
Read on: Oct 3, 2026 · older than the 27 hours refresh window; not a current reading
How to read these bars and different assessments
Council is a separate blend of available disciplines; MoonshotScore above remains the five-pillar research rating.
Bars show each model's ordered assessment on its own scale, not a probability or a comparable investment return. The adjacent words give the assessment; more filled segments indicate a stronger model reading.
On Oct 3, 2026, the Munger lens read the price at that time as fairly valued against its own estimate of value.
Readings on this page are from Oct 5, 2026, except a card that shows its own read date.
Watch the RARE film — every key number, told as a short cinematic story
~2 min · open the film
What is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE), and what does it report?
Short answer · as of
A current FMP business description is unavailable; the listing and provider classification below are the available identity facts. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) is listed on NASDAQ. It employs 1,371 people and is led by Emil D. Kakkis. In Q2 FY2026 it reported revenue of $214M and net income of -$92M. The market values it at $1.50B.
What do the latest results show for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE)?
Short answer · as of
The most recent reported quarter, Q2 FY2026, carried revenue of $214M. Against analyst estimates the company has EPS beat 3 of 8 reports.
Quarterly income statement — 4 quarters
| Period | Revenue | Net income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 | $214M | -$92M | -$0.90 (diluted) |
| Q1 FY2026 | $136M | -$185M | -$1.84 (diluted) |
| Q4 FY2025 | $207M | -$129M | -$1.29 (diluted) |
| Q3 FY2025 | $160M | -$180M | -$1.81 (diluted) |
What are the financial strengths and risks for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE)?
Short answer
What is holding it back is balance-sheet strain, a rich price, weak price trend. The distress and quality screens read Altman Z -5.26 · Piotroski F 2. Trailing ratios: ROA -47.0% · current ratio 2.02 · earnings yield -20.7% · free-cash-flow yield -16.9%.
Data-derived red flags
- Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of -5.26 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).
- Inconsistent delivery — missed Wall Street EPS estimates in 5 of the last 8 reported quarters.
- Weak fundamentals — a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 flags soft profitability, leverage or efficiency.
What should you watch next at Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE)?
Short answer · as of
Current published price targets run low $16.00 · high $39.00 · consensus $26.25 · median $24.00 against a quoted price of $15.22 (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What the records here don't tell us
- No forward revenue or earnings estimate is on file.
- The next earnings date is not yet scheduled in the calendar we read.
- No insider Form 4 transaction falls inside the window this page reads.
Checked against the records this page reads, on the dates shown above.
How does Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical compare with its peers?
Short answer
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical's score ranks 4th of 4 in the bounded comparison shown, against 3 same-model peers. These are company scores, not expected investment returns. The set lists named competitors first, then companies in the same data-provider industry classification closest in market value; that classification is the provider's, not our judgment of business similarity.
| Company | Price | Market value | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| $38.02 Oct 2, 2026 | $3.68B | 56 5-pillar Oct 5, 2026 | |
| $72.10 Oct 2, 2026 | $3.52B | 50 5-pillar Oct 5, 2026 | |
| $67.38 Oct 2, 2026 | $5.94B | 25 5-pillar Oct 5, 2026 | |
| Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) — this page | $15.22 | $1.50B | 19 |
| $40.50 Sep 14, 2026 | $6.27B | — Model unavailable | |
| $135.07 Sep 15, 2026 | $8.36B | — Model unavailable | |
| $20.50 Date unavailable | $1.51B | — Model unavailable | |
| $55.36 Date unavailable | $1.52B | — Model unavailable | |
| $48.53 Date unavailable | $1.44B | — Model unavailable | |
| $12.21 Date unavailable | $1.26B | — Model unavailable | |
| $13.91 Date unavailable | $1.97B | — Model unavailable | |
| $15.83 Date unavailable | $2.04B | — Model unavailable | |
| $40.15 Date unavailable | $2.06B | — Model unavailable |
Only 5-pillar scores are ranked together. Other models are not directly comparable. Price and score dates are shown separately; market-value dates are unavailable.
The records behind this page
Analyst targets & estimates
What analysts have on file
- Price target, low to high
- $16.00 – $39.00
- Consensus target
- $26.25
- Median target
- $24.00
Consensus record · Captured .
Measured against a quoted price of $15.22 (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What has been published about Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE)?
Investor Questions: RARE Stock
These answers are editorial: 1 of these 9 answers is drawn from the RARE research dossier (written May 9, 2026 by gemini-2.0-flash); the other 8 are question templates that restate figures shown above. Figures in this section are not part of the source register.
What does the MoonshotScore mean for RARE?
RARE carries the MoonshotScore stated above — the Weak band. This is an educational research signal, not a buy or sell recommendation. The number comes from the five-pillar engine (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum), re-ranked daily against sector peers. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing treatments for rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases.
Is RARE a good stock to buy?
Stock Expert AI does not rate RARE buy, sell or hold. Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. carries a MoonshotScore, in the Weak band, a research rating against its peers rather than a forecast. Whether it fits is your call: check what it sells, whether it earns and what the price assumes. This is educational content, not investment advice.
What is the RARE stock price today?
The last price recorded on this page for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) is $15.22, as of the Oct 2, 2026 trading session (source: Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · quote). It is a provider snapshot, not a live exchange feed, so check a brokerage quote before you trade.
What is the RARE price target?
The analyst consensus price target for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) is $26.25 (range $16.00 to $39.00, median $24.00), per FMP data captured Oct 5, 2026. Targets are analyst opinions and change often; they are not a Stock Expert AI forecast.
What are the main risks for RARE?
The main risks for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. include the potential for clinical trial failures, which could significantly impact the company's pipeline and future revenue. Regulatory setbacks, such as delays or rejections of product approvals, also pose a risk.
What are the key factors to evaluate for RARE?
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) holds a MoonshotScore in the low range. Analysts target $26.25 (+72%). No dividend yield reflects the company's focus on reinvesting earnings into growth opportunities. Not financial advice.
How frequently does RARE data refresh on this page?
RARE's price is the last quote we recorded, from the Oct 2, 2026 trading session. Pages are served from a cache, so the copy you are reading can lag that quote. The quote is a provider snapshot, not an exchange feed. Fundamentals follow quarterly filings. V2 is recalculated from the most recent completed US trading session; the score's own date shows its last successful run.
What has driven RARE's recent stock price performance?
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) moves on earnings results, analyst revisions, sector rotation, and market sentiment. Notable catalyst: Diverse portfolio of approved products. See the News tab for the latest drivers. Past performance does not predict future results.
Should investors consider RARE overvalued or undervalued right now?
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) has no trailing P/E available here, so lean on price-to-sales and cash flow in the Financials tab. Analysts target $26.25 (+72%) — upside seen. Compare P/E, P/S, and EV/EBITDA against sector peers for a full view.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.
Machine-generated analysis by Stock Expert AI — model gemini-2.0-flash, generated May 9, 2026. Editorial oversight is systemic, not page-by-page. Editorially accountable: Sedat ANAK, Founder and Editor-in-Chief.
Sources — records for every figure on this page (20 figures)
The 20 rows below are exactly the facts the evidence-backed sections of this page printed — the 10-second verdict, the MoonshotScore, price and market value, the five questions with their receipts, and the records behind this page. Known dates and sources are recorded on their own rows; an em dash or UNRECORDED tier preserves a stored observation without inventing either. The quarterly income statement is provider-standardized (FMP) under one row, and scale definitions — a 0-100 rating, the band ladder, the Piotroski 0–9 range — are fixed rather than measured. No number in those sections was generated by a model. The register does not cover quoted third-party headlines, the dated council readings, or the Frequently Asked Questions; each of those says where it came from where it stands.
"As of" is the date the value is true for where the source carries one — a quarter end, a filing date, a price close, the day the score was computed. A cached observation with no source date remains undated; the page publication date is not used as a substitute.
FMP — 12 facts from Financial Modeling Prep endpoint families
| Fact ID | Fact | Value as shown | As of | Tier | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
px.last | Latest provided price | $15.22 | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · quote — Dated to the US trading session the price belongs to, derived from the quote record's timestamp (weekend and pre-open reads roll back to the previous weekday; exchange holidays are not modelled). The record does not establish an exchange execution time. Retrieved 2026-10-04T20:54:35.379Z. | |
px.change | Change on the day | +3.19% | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · quote | |
px.mcap | Market capitalisation | $1.50B | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · quote — Date unknown Market cap record date: 2026-10-02. FMP quote timestamp: 2026-10-02T20:00:00.000Z. Captured from FMP at 2026-10-04T20:54:34.452Z. No share-count basis is inferred; this page preserves the reported amount instead of recalculating it from shares. | |
px.change_abs | Change on the day, in dollars | +$0.47 | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · quote | |
fin.q_revenue | Revenue, Q2 FY2026 | $214M | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · income statement (quarterly) | |
px.volume | Shares traded on the day | 3.88M | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · quote | |
fin.q_income | Net income, Q2 FY2026 | -$92M | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · income statement (quarterly) | |
fin.q_table | Quarterly income statement | 4 quarters through Q2 FY2026 | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · income statement (quarterly), as filed | |
earn.pt | Stored analyst price targets | low $16.00 · high $39.00 · consensus $26.25 · median $24.00 | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · price-target consensus — Captured Oct 5, 2026 · Coverage not supplied | |
earn.pt_range | Analyst price target, low to high | $16.00 – $39.00 | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · price-target consensus — Captured Oct 5, 2026 · Coverage not supplied | |
earn.pt_consensus | Consensus analyst price target | $26.25 | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · price-target consensus — Captured Oct 5, 2026 · Coverage not supplied | |
earn.pt_median | Median analyst price target | $24.00 | FMP | Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) · price-target consensus — Captured Oct 5, 2026 · Coverage not supplied |
UNRECORDED — 6 facts from stored observations whose source was not recorded
| Fact ID | Fact | Value as shown | As of | Tier | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
earn.history | Reported versus estimated, recent quarters | EPS beat 3 of 8 | UNRECORDED | Stored earnings-history observation — Captured 2026-10-03 | |
fin.scores | Distress and quality screens | Altman Z -5.26 · Piotroski F 2 | UNRECORDED | Stored financial-scores observation — Captured 2026-10-04 · Expired observation | |
px.range52 | 52-week range | $12.73 – $39.89 | UNRECORDED | Stored company-profile observation — Captured 2026-09-28 · Expired observation | |
id.employees | Employees | 1,371 | UNRECORDED | Stored company-profile observation — Captured 2026-09-28 · Expired observation | |
id.ceo | Chief executive | Emil D. Kakkis | UNRECORDED | Stored company-profile observation — Captured 2026-09-28 · Expired observation | |
fin.ratios | Return and yield ratios (trailing twelve months) | ROA -47.0% · current ratio 2.02 · earnings yield -20.7% · free-cash-flow yield -16.9% | — | UNRECORDED | Stored key metrics — Date unknown |
OURS — 2 facts from Stock Expert AI's own score and rank
| Fact ID | Fact | Value as shown | As of | Tier | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ours.moonshot | MoonshotScore v2 | 19 of 100 · Weak · pillars 45 / 27 / 26 / 50 / 28 | OURS | Stock Expert AI MoonshotScore v2 engine | |
ours.moonshot_change | MoonshotScore movement | 12 (stored snapshot Oct 4, 2026) → 19 (current publication computed Oct 5, 2026) (+7) | OURS | Stock Expert AI current score publication and immutable score snapshots — The current score publication is not yet represented in the immutable snapshot archive. |
- Published
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- Methodology · Editorial policy · Corrections
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- sedat@stockexpertai.com
Data provided for informational purposes only.
ETFs that hold RARE
Funds in our ETF coverage that list RARE among the top 10 holdings on their fund page, largest weight first. Each weight is the fund's reported holding weight as of the date in its row.
| ETF | Weight | Holdings as of |
|---|---|---|
| iShares Morningstar Small-Cap Growth ETF (JKK) | 0.92% |