United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL) Stock Analysis

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• A 9-signal quantitative MoonshotScore built from filings, insider activity, and market data — computed from the numbers, not from opinion.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL) Financial Services Profile

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL) is an exchange-traded security providing investors with direct, transparent exposure to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price movements. Structured as a commodity pool, it tracks WTI through futures contracts, offering a specialized tool for portfolio diversification within the asset management sector.

What Is the Investment Thesis for USL?

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL) offers investors a direct and liquid avenue to gain exposure to the daily price movements of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, a critical global commodity. With a market capitalization of $42.8M, USL serves a niche within the asset management sector by providing a transparent, exchange-traded security for commodity participation. Its primary value driver is the direct correlation to WTI prices, making it a relevant tool for portfolio diversification or hedging against energy price inflation. The fund's beta of 1.38 indicates a higher sensitivity to overall market movements, suggesting potential for amplified returns during bullish market phases, albeit with increased risk during downturns. Key growth catalysts for USL are primarily external, driven by sustained investor interest in crude oil, geopolitical events impacting oil supply, and global economic growth forecasts that predict increased energy demand. As an ETF, its growth is measured by Assets Under Management (AUM), which can expand with inflows from investors seeking commodity exposure. However, an inherent risk factor is the fund's structure as a commodity pool, which can lead to tracking errors and potential losses, particularly in a contango market environment where the cost of rolling futures contracts negatively impacts returns. Investors must closely monitor WTI crude oil price trends and the fund's roll yield dynamics.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

USL Key Highlights

Market Capitalization: $0.05 billion, indicating a relatively small fund within the asset management landscape.

• Beta: 1.38, suggesting higher volatility and sensitivity to broader market movements compared to the overall market.
• Dividend Yield: None, as USL is structured as an exchange-traded security tracking commodity futures, not an equity paying dividends.
• Primary Holding: Near-month futures contracts on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, providing direct commodity exposure.
• Trading Venue: Shares are listed and traded on the NYSE Arca, ensuring liquidity and accessibility for investors.

Who Are USL's Competitors?

USL is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are USL's Key Strengths?

Direct exposure to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices.

• High liquidity due to trading on NYSE Arca.
• Transparent pricing and operational structure as an exchange-traded security.
• Offers portfolio diversification benefits through commodity exposure.

What Are USL's Weaknesses?

Susceptibility to contango, leading to negative roll yield and potential tracking error.

• Performance is solely tied to WTI crude oil, lacking diversification within the fund itself.
• Small market capitalization of $42.8M, potentially limiting scale.
• Beta of 1.38 indicates higher volatility compared to the broader market.

What Could Drive USL Stock Higher?

USL catalyst: Potential for sustained global economic growth in 2026-2027, which could drive increased demand for crude oil and subsequently higher WTI prices, attracting investor inflows.

• Geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions, which can create supply uncertainty and elevate crude oil prices, increasing interest in oil-tracking funds.
• Periods of backwardation in the WTI futures market, where near-month contracts trade at a premium, potentially generating positive roll yield for USL.
• Release of new, favorable macroeconomic forecasts for industrial output and transportation needs in late 2026, signaling robust future oil demand.

What Are the Key Risks for USL?

Weak fundamentals — a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 flags soft profitability, leverage or efficiency.

• Persistent contango in the WTI futures market, which can lead to negative roll yield and erode the fund's value over time, causing tracking error.
• A significant global economic downturn or recession, which could sharply reduce demand for crude oil and lead to sustained lower WTI prices.
• Increased adoption of renewable energy sources and electric vehicles, potentially leading to a long-term decline in fossil fuel demand.
• Regulatory changes impacting commodity pools or futures trading, which could alter USL's operational framework or increase compliance costs.
• High volatility of WTI crude oil prices, reflected in USL's beta of 1.38, exposing investors to significant price swings.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for USL?

• Increased Investor Demand for Commodity Exposure: As global economic uncertainties persist and inflation concerns rise, institutional and retail investors may increasingly seek diversification through commodities. USL offers a direct and liquid way to access WTI crude oil, a key inflation hedge and industrial commodity. A sustained period of heightened interest in commodities could lead to increased inflows into USL, boosting its Assets Under Management (AUM) and market relevance. This trend could unfold over the next 3-5 years, driven by macroeconomic shifts and portfolio rebalancing strategies.
• Market Volatility and Trading Activity: Periods of significant volatility in crude oil prices, whether due to supply disruptions, geopolitical events, or shifts in demand, can drive increased trading activity in USL. Active traders and short-term investors often utilize such funds to capitalize on price swings. While not a long-term growth strategy for the fund itself, sustained volatility can lead to higher trading volumes and potentially greater AUM as investors allocate capital to capture these movements. This opportunity is ongoing and directly tied to the inherent fluctuations of the global oil market.
• Educational Initiatives and Market Awareness: Enhancing investor education about the mechanics of commodity ETFs, specifically regarding futures contracts, roll yield, and the nuances of WTI crude oil, could attract a broader base of informed investors. By demystifying the complexities, USL could expand its appeal beyond sophisticated traders to a wider audience seeking specialized commodity exposure. Such initiatives, potentially involving webinars, detailed reports, and partnerships with financial advisors, could incrementally grow the fund's investor base over a 2-4 year horizon.
• Portfolio Diversification Benefits: USL provides a distinct asset class exposure that can offer diversification benefits within a broader investment portfolio, given crude oil's often low correlation with traditional equities and fixed income. As financial advisors increasingly emphasize diversified portfolios, the clear role of a crude oil tracking fund like USL in potentially reducing overall portfolio risk or enhancing returns could drive sustained investor interest. This long-term opportunity is tied to evolving portfolio construction theories and the recognition of commodities as a distinct asset class.
• Periods of Backwardation in Crude Oil Markets: While contango is a known risk, periods of backwardation (where near-term futures contracts are more expensive than longer-dated ones) can significantly benefit commodity funds like USL. In such an environment, the fund's roll yield becomes positive, potentially enhancing returns beyond just the spot price movement. Sustained backwardation, often indicative of tight supply or strong immediate demand, could attract investors seeking to capitalize on this structural advantage, leading to increased AUM. This opportunity is cyclical, dependent on global oil market dynamics, and could occur over varying timelines.

What Threats Does USL Face?

• Prolonged periods of contango negatively impacting returns and tracking accuracy.
• Declining global demand for crude oil due to energy transition or economic slowdowns.
• Increased competition from other commodity ETFs or direct futures market access.
• Regulatory changes impacting commodity pools or futures trading.

What Are USL's Competitive Advantages?

• Liquidity and Accessibility: As an exchange-traded security on NYSE Arca, USL offers high liquidity and ease of access for a broad range of investors.
• Direct Commodity Exposure: Provides a straightforward and regulated vehicle for direct exposure to WTI crude oil prices, simplifying commodity investing.
• Established Structure: Operates with a defined commodity pool structure, offering a known and understood mechanism for tracking futures.
• Brand Recognition: As part of the United States Commodity Funds (USCF) family, it benefits from an established brand in the commodity ETF space.

What Does USL Do?

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund, LP (USL) operates as an exchange-traded security, meticulously engineered to mirror the daily price fluctuations of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil. Established to offer investors a direct and accessible conduit to the crude oil market, USL achieves its objective by primarily holding near-month futures contracts on WTI. This structure allows the fund to provide exposure to a crucial global commodity without requiring investors to engage directly in the complex futures market or physical oil ownership. Shares of USL are listed and actively traded on the NYSE Arca, providing liquidity and ease of transaction for institutional and retail investors alike. As a commodity pool, USL's operational framework involves rolling futures contracts, a process where expiring contracts are sold and new, longer-dated contracts are purchased. This mechanism is fundamental to maintaining continuous exposure to WTI crude oil prices over time. The fund's design aims for daily tracking, meaning its performance is intended to correlate with the daily percentage changes in WTI prices. However, the nature of futures markets, particularly phenomena like contango—where longer-dated futures contracts are more expensive than near-term ones—can introduce tracking errors and impact the fund's long-term performance due to negative roll yield. USL's existence addresses a specific market need for a regulated, transparent, and liquid investment vehicle that allows participation in the energy commodity sector, specifically crude oil, within a traditional brokerage account. Its headquarters are located in Walnut Creek, US, positioning it within the broader financial services industry focused on asset management. The fund represents a specialized offering for those seeking to incorporate commodity exposure into their investment strategies, providing a mechanism to potentially benefit from or hedge against movements in global oil prices.

What Products and Services Does USL Offer?

• Tracks the daily price movements of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil.
• Issues shares that are traded on the NYSE Arca, providing liquidity for investors.
• Primarily holds near-month futures contracts on WTI crude oil to achieve its tracking objective.
• Operates as an exchange-traded security (ETS), offering direct commodity exposure.
• Provides a mechanism for investors to participate in the crude oil market without direct futures trading.
• Manages a commodity pool, involving the rolling of futures contracts to maintain continuous exposure.

How Does USL Make Money?

• Generates revenue through management fees charged on its Assets Under Management (AUM).
• Offers a liquid, exchange-traded product for investors seeking WTI crude oil exposure.
• Manages a portfolio of WTI crude oil futures contracts to achieve its investment objective.
• Provides transparency and accessibility for commodity investing through its listed shares.

What Industry Does USL Operate In?

The United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL) operates within the dynamic Financial Services sector, specifically under the Asset Management industry. This segment is characterized by entities that manage investment portfolios and funds for clients, including exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like USL. The broader asset management industry is influenced by global economic conditions, interest rate policies, and investor sentiment towards various asset classes. USL's specific niche is commodity ETFs, providing exposure to crude oil. The competitive landscape for commodity ETFs includes other funds tracking WTI, Brent crude, or broader energy indices. Market trends indicate fluctuating investor demand for commodities, often driven by inflation concerns, geopolitical instability, and industrial demand. USL positions itself as a direct and liquid option for investors seeking to participate in the daily price movements of WTI crude oil, offering a specialized tool within a diverse and competitive asset management environment.

Who Are USL's Key Customers?

• Institutional investors seeking commodity exposure for diversification or hedging.
• Retail investors looking for a convenient way to invest in crude oil.
• Active traders aiming to capitalize on short-term WTI crude oil price movements.
• Portfolio managers seeking to allocate a portion of their assets to energy commodities.

United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL) Valuation Context

Valued at $42.8M, USL is classified as a micro-cap stock. Relative to its peer group, USL's quantitative score of 50/100 is below the peer average of 73/100.

Return on equity for United States 12 Month Oil Fund stands at 0.0%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 0.0%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. USL trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 0.00, below the Financial Services sector average of ~18x. Its free cash flow yield is 0.0%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 0.00 means current liabilities exceed short-term assets, a liquidity point worth watching. Its earnings yield is 0.0%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

United States 12 Month Oil Fund's Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — flagging fundamental weakness worth scrutiny.

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Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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