AbbVie Inc.
ABBV - NYSE - $206.60 ▼ -%2.23
-
Earnings Thu 30 Jul

AbbVie opens the
books on Thursday evening.

10 analysts' median target is $260[FMP target], stock is $207, +25.8% upside potential. After Q1 +2.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.6%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
C-
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 56

C- = MoonshotScore 56[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $16.8B[FMP est], EPS $3.73[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.73 EPS Estimate Last year $2.71 - +26% YoY YoY
5 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters

Q1 EPS +2.3% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Scott Reents promised $329.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Scott Reents capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$0.12 Expectation / Guide

Fy Eps Guidance Increase

fy_eps_guidance_increase

AbbVie is raising its full year adjusted earnings per share guidance by $0.12 and now expects adjusted EPS between $14.08 and $14.28 due to strong performance.

"Based on this strong performance, we are raising our full year adjusted earnings per share guidance by $0.12 and now expect adjusted EPS between $14.08 and $14.28."

- Robert Michael, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$10.2 billion Expectation / Guide

Rinvoq Growth Expectations

rinvoq_growth_expectations

Rinvoq global sales are expected to reach $10.2 billion, reflecting strong performance in the room and gastro indications.

"Rinvoq global sales of $10.2 billion, an increase of $100 million, reflecting strong performance in the room and gastro indications."

- Scott Reents, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$12.6 billion Investor Focus

Neuroscience Revenue Growth

neuroscience_revenue_growth

Total Neuroscience revenues are expected to reach $12.6 billion an increase of $100 million, reflecting momentum across the portfolio.

"Total Neuroscience revenues of $12.6 billion an increase of $100 million, reflecting momentum across the portfolio."

- Scott Reents, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
30% Investor Focus

Skyrizi Ibd Growth

skyrizi_ibd_growth

Skyrizi is on track to deliver more than 30% global sales growth across Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis this year.

"Performance also remains very robust in IBD, where Skyrizi is on track to deliver more than 30% global sales growth across Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis this year."

- Jeffrey Stewart, Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$100 billion Investor Focus

Us Rd Investment

us_rd_investment

As part of AbbVie's $100 billion commitment to U.S. R&D and capital investments over the next decade, the company recently announced construction of several new manufacturing sites.

"Lastly, as part of AbbVie's $100 billion commitment to U.S. R&D and capital investments over the next decade, we recently announced construction of several new manufacturing sites."

- Robert Michael, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 56 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-2.7%, contraction)
Gross Margin8.0Q1: very high margin (83.5%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin very strong (31.6%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($4.9B, 14.9x CapEx)
R&D Intensity7.0balanced R&D investment (11.2%)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 48.9 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment7.0strong buy consensus (73%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +25.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 49
Klarman value - target upside +25.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +25.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
48.9 RSI 48.9 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-3.70 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$215 stock 3.7% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$218 stock 5.2% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-18% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$260
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$207
Pre-earnings position
Support
$185
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$185-$260 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

AbbVie's last 8 quarters: 5 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.97 vs $2.88 est - +3.3%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.86 vs $1.77 est - -2.8%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.71 vs $2.65 est - +0.9%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.65 vs $2.59 est - +3.6%

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $2.65 vs $2.59 est[FMP], +2.3% beat. D+1 movement: +3.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.62 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $2.65 vs $2.59 beat[FMP], stock +3.6% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $329.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 31.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.73 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.73[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $260[FMP target]; high target $294[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.73 + CapEx < $329.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.73[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $329.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $207[FMP] and median $260[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.62 or CapEx >= $329.0M
Threshold: EPS < $3.62[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $207 below SMA200 $218[FMP], if rejection continues, $185[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 10 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$260
12-month median target price (+25.8% upside potential)
24
BUY
9
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$185
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$215 - 50-day MA (below, -3.7%)
$218 - 200-day MA (below, -5.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ABBV Q4 FY26
C-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.73[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $329.0M"[Scott Reents]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days ABBV dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ABBV earnings preview cover?

This ABBV (ABBV) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in ABBV earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.