Adobe Inc.
ADBE - NASDAQ - $250.71 ▲ +%1.87
-
Earnings
Thu 11 Jun
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-11 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.
Adobe opens the
books on Thursday evening.
12 analysts' median target is $340[FMP target], stock is $251, +35.6% upside potential. After Q1 +3.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -7.6%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
BUY
Council 5/6
-
Moonshot 61
A- = MoonshotScore 61[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $6.5B[FMP est], EPS $5.83[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$5.83
EPS Estimate
Last year $4.45 - +15% YoY YoY
-
Acrobat Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
1
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters
Q1 EPS +3.2% beat[FMP] but the stock -7.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Dan Durn promised $37.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Dan Durn capex transcript].
Aep Genstudio Growth
aep_genstudio_growth
AEP and apps as well as Adobe GenStudio ending ARR grew over 30% year-over-year in Q1.
"In Q1, globally, we achieved over 30% year-over-year growth in AEP and apps as well as Adobe GenStudio ending ARR."
- Shantanu Narayen - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
Acrobat Express Mau Growth
acrobat_express_mau_growth
Acrobat and Express MAU grew approximately 20% year-over-year.
"Acrobat and Express MAU grew approximately 20% year-over-year."
- Daniel Durn - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
Acrobat Ai Assistant Arr Growth
acrobat_ai_assistant_arr_growth
Acrobat AI Assistant ARR grew approximately 3x year-over-year
"Acrobat AI Assistant ARR grew approximately 3x year-over-year"
- Daniel Durn - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
Ai First Arr Growth
ai_first_arr_growth
ARR from Adobe's AI-first offerings more than tripled year-over-year.
"Our new AI-first offerings ending ARR more than tripled year-over-year, reflecting progress against this opportunity with individuals and enterprises alike."
- Shantanu Narayen - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
$250 million
Investor Focus
Firefly Arr Exceeds $250m
firefly_arr_exceeds_$250m
Firefly ending ARR across Firefly app, Firefly credit packs and Firefly Enterprise exceeded $250 million.
"Firefly ending ARR across Firefly app, Firefly credit packs and Firefly Enterprise exceeded $250 million."
- Daniel Durn - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
61 / 100
9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth4.0
Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+8.9%)
Gross Margin9.0
Q1: very high margin (89.1%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage4.0
op margin very strong (37.8%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0
FCF very strong ($2.9B, 78.9x CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0
high R&D intensity (17.9%, aggressive)
Price Momentum7.0
RSI 53.5 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment4.0
mixed (43% buy)
Council Score
5 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +35.6%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 54
Klarman value - target upside +35.6%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +35.6%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued
Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
53.5
RSI 53.5 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+0.10
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$251
stock 0.1% above - short-term support
200d MA
$314
stock 20.2% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-11%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$340
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$251
Pre-earnings position
Support
$267
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$267-$340 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
Adobe's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$5.06 vs $4.97 est - -5.3%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$5.31 vs $5.18 est - -0.3%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$4.45 vs $5.40 est - -2.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$6.06 vs $5.87 est - -7.6%
Q1 (March 12, 2026): EPS $6.06 vs $5.87 est[FMP], +3.2% beat. D+1 movement: -7.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $5.66 (no guidance)
Q1: EPS $6.06 vs $5.87 beat[FMP], stock -7.6% D+1[FMP].
"-"
- Dan Durn, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $37.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 37.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- Dan Durn, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - March 12, 2026
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $5.83 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $5.83[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $340[FMP target]; high target $450[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $5.83 + CapEx < $37.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $5.83[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $37.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $251[FMP] and median $340[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $5.66 or CapEx >= $37.0M
Threshold: EPS < $5.66[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $251 below SMA200 $314[FMP], if rejection continues, $267[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 12 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$340
12-month median target price (+35.6% upside potential)
Risk Management
$267
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$251 - 50-day MA (above, +0.1%)
$314 - 200-day MA (below, -20.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ADBE Q4 FY26
A-
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $5.83[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $37.0M"[Dan Durn]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage
TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades
Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Jun 11, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jun 12, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 26, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Sep 11, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the ADBE earnings preview cover?
This ADBE (ADBE) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in ADBE earnings?
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.