Airbnb, Inc.
ABNB - NASDAQ - $141.66 ▲ +%0.93
-
Earnings Thu 7 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Airbnb opens the
books on Thursday evening.

12 analysts' median target is $148[FMP target], stock is $142, +4.1% upside potential. After Q4 +-15.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +4.6%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 63

B+ = MoonshotScore 63[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.6B[FMP est], EPS $0.30[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.30 EPS Estimate Last year $0.56 - +25% YoY YoY
0 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters

Q4 EPS +-15.9% beat[FMP] but the stock +4.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Ellie Mertz promised $7.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Ellie Mertz capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$2.59 billion Expectation / Guide

Q1 2026 Revenue Guidance

q1_2026_revenue_guidance

Airbnb expects to generate revenue of $2.59 billion to $2.63 billion in Q1 2026, representing year-over-year growth of 14% to 16%.

"In Q1, we expect to generate revenue of $2.59 billion to $2.63 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 14% to 16%."

- Ellie Mertz, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
2026 Investor Focus

Revenue Growth Acceleration

revenue_growth_acceleration

Airbnb expects revenue growth to accelerate to low double digits in 2026, with an ambition to grow even faster.

"We expect revenue growth to accelerate to at least low double digits in 2026."

- Brian Chesky, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
40% Investor Focus

Free Cash Flow Generation

free_cash_flow_generation

Airbnb has been able to generate free cash flow at nearly 40% of revenue and nearly $19 billion of cumulative free cash flow since its IPO.

"That's why we've been able to generate free cash flow at nearly 40% of revenue and nearly $19 billion of cumulative free cash flow since our IPO."

- Brian Chesky, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
- Risk Indicator

Adjusted Ebitda Margin Stability

adjusted_ebitda_margin_stability

Airbnb expects adjusted EBITDA margins to be stable year-over-year in 2026.

"We expect adjusted EBITDA margins to be stable year-over-year."

- Brian Chesky, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026
- Investor Focus

Capital Investment Strategy

capital_investment_strategy

Airbnb doesn't need massive capital investment to grow; they don't own homes, operate experiences, and are not building data centers.

"We don't need massive capital investment to grow. We don't own homes. We don't operate experiences, and we're not building data centers."

- Brian Chesky, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 12, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 63 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+22.3%)
Gross Margin8.0Q4: very high margin (82.5%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (9.7%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.5B, 76.1x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0high R&D intensity (19.2%, aggressive)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 60.7 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment5.0mixed (49% buy)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +4.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 61
Klarman value - target upside +4.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +4.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
60.7 RSI 60.7 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+6.60 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$133 stock 6.6% above - short-term support
200d MA
$128 stock 10.4% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-19% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$148
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$142
Pre-earnings position
Support
$109
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$109-$148 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Airbnb,'s last 8 quarters: 0 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$0.24 vs $0.23 est - +1.0%
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.03 vs $0.94 est - -8.0%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$2.21 vs $2.31 est - +0.3%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$0.56 vs $0.67 est - +4.6%

Q4 (February 12, 2026): EPS $0.56 vs $0.67 est[FMP], +-15.9% beat. D+1 movement: +4.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.29 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $0.56 vs $0.67 beat[FMP], stock +4.6% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $7.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 9.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.30 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.30[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $148[FMP target]; high target $185[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.30 + CapEx < $7.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.30[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $7.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $142[FMP] and median $148[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.29 or CapEx >= $7.0M
Threshold: EPS < $0.29[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $142 below SMA200 $128[FMP], if rejection continues, $109[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 12 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$148
12-month median target price (+4.1% upside potential)
21
BUY
20
HOLD
2
SELL
Risk Management
$109
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$133 - 50-day MA (above, +6.6%)
$128 - 200-day MA (above, +10.4%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ABNB Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.30[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $7.0M"[Ellie Mertz]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days ABNB dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 7, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 8, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 21, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 7, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ABNB earnings preview cover?

This ABNB (ABNB) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in ABNB earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.