Airbnb, Inc.
ABNB - NASDAQ - $146.89 ▲ +%2.76
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Earnings
Wed 5 Aug
Airbnb opens the
books on Wednesday evening.
12 analysts' median target is $160[FMP target], stock is $147, +8.9% upside potential. After Q1 +-14.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.7%.
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summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD
Council 3/6
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Moonshot 37
B+ = MoonshotScore 37[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $3.6B[FMP est], EPS $1.19[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$1.19
EPS Estimate
Last year $0.26 - +16% YoY YoY
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Primary Segment Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
0
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters
Q1 EPS +-14.5% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brian Chesky promised $0 CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Brian Chesky capex transcript].
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
37 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0
Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-13.5%, contraction)
Gross Margin8.0
Q1: very high margin (78.3%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage0.0
op margin weak (3.2%, under pressure)
Cash Runway3.0
FCF very strong ($1.7B, 1708000000.0x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0
high R&D intensity (19.2%, aggressive)
Price Momentum7.0
RSI 57.6 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment5.0
majority buy (53%)
Council Score
3 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +8.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 58
Klarman value - target upside +8.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +8.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued
Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
57.6
RSI 57.6 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+6.30
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$138
stock 6.3% above - short-term support
200d MA
$131
stock 12.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-25%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$160
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$147
Pre-earnings position
Support
$111
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$111-$160 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
Airbnb,'s last 8 quarters: 0 consecutive beats.
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.03 vs $0.94 est - -8.0%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$2.21 vs $2.31 est - +0.3%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$0.56 vs $0.67 est - +4.6%
MISS
Q1 FY26
$0.26 vs $0.30 est - +0.7%
Q1 (May 7, 2026): EPS $0.26 vs $0.30 est[FMP], +-14.5% beat. D+1 movement: +0.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $1.15 (no guidance)
Q1: EPS $0.26 vs $0.30 beat[FMP], stock +0.7% D+1[FMP].
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $0[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 3.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $1.19 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.19[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $160[FMP target]; high target $185[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.19 + CapEx < $0
Threshold: EPS approx $1.19[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $0[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $147[FMP] and median $160[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.15 or CapEx >= $0
Threshold: EPS < $1.15[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $147 below SMA200 $131[FMP], if rejection continues, $111[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 12 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$160
12-month median target price (+8.9% upside potential)
Risk Management
$111
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$138 - 50-day MA (above, +6.3%)
$131 - 200-day MA (above, +12.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ABNB Q1 FY27
B+
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.19[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $0. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage
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Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Aug 5, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 6, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 19, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 5, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the ABNB earnings preview cover?
This Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in ABNB earnings?
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.