Autodesk, Inc.
ADSK - NASDAQ - $249.43 ▲ +%0.76
-
Earnings Thu 21 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-21 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Autodesk opens the
books on Thursday evening.

7 analysts' median target is $345[FMP target], stock is $249, +38.3% upside potential. After Q2 +7.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +5.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 5/6 - Moonshot 73

B+ = MoonshotScore 73[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $1.9B[FMP est], EPS $2.84[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.84 EPS Estimate Last year $2.29 - +24% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q2 EPS +7.5% beat[FMP] but the stock +5.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Janesh Moorjani promised $24.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Janesh Moorjani capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

- Risk Indicator

Operating Margin Expansion

operating_margin_expansion

Autodesk is making good progress on the optimization phase of its sales and marketing efficiency plan and is set to expand its operating margin over time.

"We are making good progress and are on track to realize its expected benefits. These efficiency gains, combined with inherent operating leverage set us up well to expand our operating margin over time."

- Janesh Moorjani, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 28, 2025
- Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Guidance Increase

fy26_guidance_increase

Autodesk raised its full-year revenue and billings guidance due to strong second-quarter results and performance in the first half of the year.

"As a result, we are raising our guidance for the full year."

- Andrew Anagnost, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 28, 2025
- Investor Focus

Autodesk Ai Vision

autodesk_ai_vision

Autodesk aims to disrupt long-standing technology paradigms in AI by creating industry-specific foundation models and products, combining spatial and physical reasoning with deep industry knowledge.

"By combining our own spatial and physical reasoning with deep industry-specific knowledge, Autodesk AI will move beyond traditional, deterministic and rule-based parametric CAD kernels to deliver adaptive and context aware, AI-driven CAD engines."

- Andrew Anagnost, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 28, 2025
- Investor Focus

Share Buyback Increase

share_buyback_increase

Autodesk is focused on enhancing shareholder value by increasing its share repurchase program as its free cash flow grows.

"We remain focused on executing our established strategic priorities in cloud, platform and AI, optimizing our sales and marketing to drive higher operating margins and allocating capital to organic investments, targeted and tuck-in acquisitions and continuing our share repurchase program as our free cash flow grows."

- Andrew Anagnost, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 28, 2025
- Investor Focus

Aeco Strength

aeco_strength

Autodesk saw strength in AECO where our customers are benefiting from sustained investment in data centers, infrastructure and industrial buildings.

"We saw strength in AECO where our customers are benefiting from sustained investment in data centers, infrastructure and industrial buildings, which is more than offsetting softness in commercial."

- Janesh Moorjani, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 28, 2025

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 73 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+19.8%)
Gross Margin9.0Q4: very high margin (92.7%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin healthy (27.1%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.0B, 40.2x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0very high R&D (22.8%, margin pressure risk)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 58.8 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (88%)
Council Score 5 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +38.3%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 59
Klarman value - target upside +38.3%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +38.3%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
58.8 RSI 58.8 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+3.10 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$242 stock 3.1% above - short-term support
200d MA
$280 stock 10.9% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+23% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$345
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$249
Pre-earnings position
Support
$238
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$238-$345 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Autodesk, beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.29 vs $2.15 est - +0.1%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$2.62 vs $2.45 est - +9.1%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$2.67 vs $2.50 est - +2.4%
BEAT
Q4 FY26
$2.85 vs $2.65 est - +5.3%

Q2 (August 28, 2025): EPS $2.85 vs $2.65 est[FMP], +7.5% beat. D+1 movement: +5.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.75 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $2.85 vs $2.65 beat[FMP], stock +5.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $24.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 27.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.84 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.84[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $345[FMP target]; high target $380[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.84 + CapEx < $24.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.84[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $24.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $249[FMP] and median $345[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.75 or CapEx >= $24.0M
Threshold: EPS < $2.75[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $249 below SMA200 $280[FMP], if rejection continues, $238[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 7 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$345
12-month median target price (+38.3% upside potential)
29
BUY
4
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$238
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$242 - 50-day MA (above, +3.1%)
$280 - 200-day MA (below, -10.9%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ADSK Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.84[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $24.0M"[Janesh Moorjani]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 21, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 22, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 5, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 21, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ADSK earnings preview cover?

This ADSK (ADSK) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in ADSK earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.