10 analysts' median target is $137[FMP target], stock is $137, -0.7% upside potential. After Q1 +4.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved no data.
B- = MoonshotScore 50[9-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $5.5B[FMP est], EPS $1.59[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +4.5% beat[FMP] but the stock no data D+1[FMP D+1]. Trevor Mihalik promised $2.8B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Trevor Mihalik capex transcript].
Watchlist
Earnings Growth Rate
earnings_growth_rate
AEP expects a 7% to 9% operating earnings growth rate from 2026 through 2030, with the long-term operating earnings CAGR now expected to be greater than 9%.
"Especially in light of the exceptional load expansion we are seeing, today, we are also reaffirming our premium operating earnings growth rate of 7% to 9% for 2026 through 2030. The $6 billion increase to our capital plan is driven by transmission and generation projects that come online later in the next 5 years. These investments are expected to be accretive to earnings in the back end of the plan and increase our expected long-term operating earnings CAGR to now greater than 9%."
- William Fehrman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Load Growth Guidance
load_growth_guidance
AEP anticipates significant load growth, with a total of 63 gigawatts of incremental contracted load expected by 2030.
"AEP continues to experience substantial system demand concentrated largely in our key growth states of Indiana, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas. In the first quarter, we contracted an additional 7 gigawatts of load, coming mostly from AEP Texas and AEP Ohio. And we now have an incremental contracted total of 63 gigawatts expected by 2030."
- William Fehrman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Generation Capital Outlook
generation_capital_outlook
AEP has expanded its generation capital outlook by $3 billion to $24 billion through 2030 to support accelerating demand and long-term growth.
"As part of this effort, we have expanded our generation capital outlook by $3 billion to $24 billion through 2030, driven by new gas generation at I&M."
- William Fehrman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Capital Plan Increase
capital_plan_increase
AEP has increased its 5-year capital plan to $78 billion, driving an expected 11% rate base CAGR.
"To support these projects, today, we are increasing our 5-year capital plan to $78 billion, up from the prior $72 billion, which now drives an expected 11% 5-year rate base CAGR."
- William Fehrman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Transmission Investment
transmission_investment
AEP's transmission investment forecast now totals $33 billion, representing 42% of the overall $78 billion capital plan.
"With the addition of these projects, our transmission investment forecast now totals $33 billion, representing 42% of the overall $78 billion capital plan and underscoring our position in strengthening the nation's critical electric transmission backbone."
- William Fehrman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Cost Offsets
cost_offsets
AEP is forecasting up to $16 billion in cost offsets for existing customers from their allocated contributions to expenses during the life of these agreements.
"With the large load contracts we have secured, we are forecasting up to $16 billion in cost offsets for existing customers from their allocated contributions to expenses during the life of these agreements."
- William Fehrman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Price Momentum strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ken Griffin), 2 bearish (Klarman, Munger), 3 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 5, 2026): EPS $1.64 vs $1.57 est[FMP], +4.5% beat. D+1 movement: no data[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.64 vs $1.57 beat[FMP], stock no data D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $2.8B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 22.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.59[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $2.8B"[Trevor Mihalik]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This AEP (AEP) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.