5 analysts' median target is $84[FMP target], stock is $78, +7.0% upside potential. After Q1 +11.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +5.3%.
A- = MoonshotScore 33[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $7.2B[FMP est], EPS $1.97[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +11.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +5.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Keith Walsh promised $0 CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Keith Walsh capex transcript].
Watchlist
General Insurance Growth
general_insurance_growth
General Insurance net premiums written increased 18% year-over-year.
"In the first quarter, General Insurance net premiums written increased 18% year-over-year on a constant dollar basis, driven by our Global Commercial Insurance business, which increased 21% year-over-year and our Global Personal Insurance business, which increased 11% year-over-year."
- Peter Zaffino, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Ai Underwriting Impact
ai_underwriting_impact
In Lexington middle market property, AIG Assist has helped deliver a 30% improvement on quoting more submissions, reduced time to quote for the underwriters by 55% and increased binding of submissions by approximately 40%.
"In Lexington middle market property, which is an area we have targeted for growth, AIG Assist has helped deliver a 30% improvement on quoting more submissions, reduced time to quote for the underwriters by 55% and increased binding of submissions by approximately 40%."
- Peter Zaffino, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Dividend Increase
dividend_increase
The AIG Board of Directors approved an 11% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share starting in the second quarter of 2026.
"As we announced yesterday, the AIG Board of Directors approved an 11% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share starting in the second quarter of 2026."
- Peter Zaffino, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Shareholder Capital Return
shareholder_capital_return
During the quarter, the company returned $760 million of capital to shareholders, including $519 million of share repurchases and $241 million of dividends.
"During the quarter, we returned $760 million of capital to shareholders, including $519 million of share repurchases and $241 million of dividends."
- Peter Zaffino, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Global Personal Insurance Improvement
global_personal_insurance_improvement
Significant improvement was achieved in the Global Personal Insurance business, with the accident year combined ratio as adjusted improving 570 basis points to 89.9%.
"The accident year combined ratio as adjusted improved 570 basis points to 89.9%."
- Peter Zaffino, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Expense Ratio Improvement
expense_ratio_improvement
The expense ratio was 29.3%, an improvement of 120 basis points year-over-year.
"The expense ratio was 29.3%, an improvement of 120 basis points year-over-year."
- Peter Zaffino, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 1, 2026): EPS $2.11 vs $1.89 est[FMP], +11.6% beat. D+1 movement: +5.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $2.11 vs $1.89 beat[FMP], stock +5.3% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $0[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 14.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.97[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $0"[Keith Walsh]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This AIG (AIG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.